Multiple ContributorsOct 7, 2023, 07:00 PM9 Minute Read
We’re on to the fifth weekend of the 2023 NFL seasonand we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 5 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props.
Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday’s winners
Can Leighton Vander Esch limit the 49ers?
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan is notorious for targeting opposing linebackers with his offense, and it shows in the numbers. Linebackers allow 0.9 yards per coverage snap leaguewide since 2022, but it jumps to 1.2 against the 49ers.
That should put pressure on the Cowboys’ Vander Esch when San Francisco faces Dallas on Sunday night, though he looks up for the challenge. No linebacker has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap than Vander Esch (0.2) this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. While that’s a tiny sample for a coverage linebacker, he was above average in coverage last season, too, with 0.7 yards per coverage snap allowed.
Is the Jets’ schedule finally letting up?
Even after just four games, it’s easy to get caught up in a team’s record. But especially in these small samples, opponent strength is an important part of the equation. And according to ESPN’s Football Power Indexno team has had a tougher schedule thus far than the Jets (vs. Bills, at Cowboys, vs. Patriots, vs. Chiefs).
Well, it finally lets up in Week 5, as the Jets head to Denver to face the Broncos, by far the worst team they’ve seen yet. Denver ranks 28th in FPI. Obviously, it has been a rough opening stretch for the Jets after Aaron Rodgers‘ injury and a 1-3 record through four games. We’ll have a better feel for who this team is after it faces a more moderate mix of opponents. The Jets have the 14th-most difficult schedule going forward.
Concern for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba’s start to his NFL career has been slow, with just 12 receptions for 62 yards on 20 targets. Yes, it’s early for the first-round rookie, but if we look at his receiver tracking metricsthe signs only get worse. Smith-Njigba has a 32 open score, 38 catch score and 45 YAC score — all below average. In fact, both his open score — the most important of the three measures — and his overall score (30) rank second-to-last among qualifying wide receivers, ahead of only JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Seahawks receiver can certainly turn it around, but those numbers are concerning.
Wait, is the AFC South going to be a close race?
All four teams are in contention to win the division. The Jaguars (30% to win the division, per ESPN’s FPI) have a narrow edge on the Texans (27%), Titans (25%) and Colts (18%). Perhaps that’s no surprise with the whole division at 2-2, but it’s also a sign of the Jaguars’ disappointing start to the season and better-than-expected starts for the other three teams.
The Titans head to Indianapolis this weekend for a high-leverage matchup for both teams. If we lock in a win for the Titans, they would jump to 33% to win the division, while a loss would drop them to 14%. For the Colts, it’s 28% and 10%, respectively, per ESPN’s FPI.
Can O’Cyrus Torrence be a real asset in pass protection?
Rookie offensive linemen typically struggle in pass protection, even highly drafted ones, which makes it even more impressive when someone succeeds right away — it’s relatively rare. One who fits that description is Torrence, a Bills second-rounder who ranks 15th in pass block win rate at guard. It’s not exceptional in and of itself, but it is for a rookie. By comparison, Rams second-round guard Steve Avila ranks 56th on the same list. Torrence’s run-blocking isn’t nearly as strong to date, but the pass protection is mighty encouraging.
McAfee impressed with Bills: ‘We got a new king of the AFC’
Pat McAfee was thoroughly impressed with the Bills’ big win over the Dolphins.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up — and can start this week
DJ Chark Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers (42.2% rostered)
We saw Chark’s potential in Frank Reich’s offense back in Week 3 against the Seahawkswhen he had 11 targets and 18.6 fantasy points with Andy Dalton under center. When rookie quarterback Bryce Young returned in Week 4he was limited to three targets and 4.8 fantasy points. But I could see Young and the Panthers leaning more on Chark against the Lions on Sunday. Detroit’s defense has allowed only 24% of opponent carries to go for more than 5 yards, so Reich might opt to go pass-heavy. And even if he doesn’t, the game script might force his hand. The Lions are heavily favored, which suggests the Panthers will be playing from behind and have to throw more.
Jaleel McLaughlinRB, Denver Broncos (41.7% rostered)
McLaughlin finished with 10 touches and 19.4 fantasy points against the Bears in Week 4. He also out-touched Samaje Perine following Javonte Williams‘ departure due to a hip flexor injury. Assuming Williams is out on Sunday against the Jets, coach Sean Payton should give McLaughlin more touches behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks 11th in run block win rate (72.3%). He’s a baller who averaged 7.0 yards per carry last season at Youngstown State and has averaged 7.1 on 13 carries this season. The Jets’ defense has surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards per game.
Joshua DobbsQB, Arizona Cardinals (31.9% rostered)
The dual-threat quarterback has scored 23 or more fantasy points in two of the past three games, and he has rushed for 40 or more yards in three consecutive starts. This weekendDobbs will face a Bengals defense that has allowed 125 rushing yards to quarterbacks, the fourth most in the league. If you are in a bye-week jam under center, he could be a savvy play.
Why Joshua Dobbs is worth a start in fantasy
Why Joshua Dobbs is worth a start in fantasy Field Yates likes Joshua Dobbs’ effectiveness through the ground and air thus far this season.
Jayden ReedWR, Green Bay Packers (24.2% rostered)
You might be wondering why Reed is mentioned when Christian Watson is back, and to be fair, he did see a slight decrease in snaps against the Lions in Week 4. But Reed has also played 56.1% of his snaps from the slot for Green Bay, tops on the team. In that role, he leads the Packers with 15 targets and 1.6 yards per route run. The Raiders’ defense has been good to slot receivers, too, which bodes well for him. As Watson and Romeo Doubs draw defensive attention, Jordan Love should be able to take advantage of Reed’s matchup.
Tyler ConklinTHE New York Jets (16.5% rostered)
Fantasy managers who don’t roster Travis Kelce typically have a hard time finding tight end production, but Conklin has a great matchup against the Broncos’ defense. He has run a route on nearly 70% of Zach Wilson‘s dropbacks since Wilson took over as the team’s starter, and the Denver defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday’s action
Bills quarterback Josh Allen will throw two touchdown passes
I’m looking for Allen to have success off play-action concepts against the Jags’ defenseand it could lead to some scoring plays. Through four games, Allen has a QBR of 93.3 on play-action throws, with three touchdown passes in the red zone.
Miami receiver Jaylen Waddle will have a catch for more than 25 yards
The Giants’ blitz rate of 45.6% ranks second in the NFL, which sets up Waddle to create explosive plays as a catch-and-run target for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in this matchup. Miami can get the ball out quick here on in-breakers, with Waddle in a position to get loose in the open field. Waddle already has three catches for more than 25 yards on the season, and his 17.5 yards per catch ranks seventh in the league. New York has allowed 11.5 yards per reception, eighth worst.
The Titans will sack Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson twice
Richardson has been sacked at least twice in two of three games played this season, and the Titans can dial up simulated pressures on Sunday to cloud the post-snap looks for the rookie quarterback. You could see second- and third-level blitzers here from multiple alignments. Tennessee is seventh in pass block win rate (51.0%) and sacks (tied at 13).
Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder will throw an interception
Ridder has only three interceptions on the season, but he has struggled to read second-level defenders in zone coverages. Houston — which leads the NFL with a zone coverage rate of 75.2% — can get one here on Sunday. Tips and overthrows could become quick turnovers for a defense that has three picks on the season.
Lions running back David Montgomery will rush for over 70 yards
The run game is a major part of the Lions’ offensive identity, and Montgomery has rushed for over 70 yards in two of his three games played this season. That will continue against the Panthers. Carolina is allowing 4.7 yards per carry, fourth worst in the NFL. Plus, Montgomery is the clear lead runner of this Detroit backfield. He has is averaging 24 touches per game, nearly double those of Jahmyr Gibbs (13.3).
2023-10-07 11:08:33
#NFL #Week #predictions #fantasy #sleepers #key #stats
