J. Michael Sturdivant, WR, UCLA at Stanford – Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (Bet Rivers) (DK – 48.5 | 110+ = +1,100)
Stanford is allowing the most college fantasy points in the entire nation to wide receivers. UCLA needs to prop up Dante Moore after a disappointing showing versus Oregon State last week, as the five-star freshman complete just 14-of-33 for 165 yards. However the week prior he lit up Wazzu for 290 and held his own against the best D in the Pac-12, throwing for 234 yards against Utah and Froton family member, All-P12 safety Cole Bishop.
Other than “Sturdy” catching 2-of-5 targets for 19 yards last week, he went for 55+ yards in each of his previous three games. This line screams outlier overreaction from our friends at Bet Rivers who routinely puke on prop lines, week-in-week out. This is a “get right” spot for the UCLA passing game if I ever saw one, which is why DK is tempting fate giving us +1,100 (!) odds on Sturdy walking a mudhole on the porous Stanford secondary. Brutal misprice on both fronts, give me the Over with a 100+ (+750) or 110+ ALT Line out of principle.
Brady Cook, QB, Missouri vs. South Carolina – Over 291.5 Receiving Yards
I’ve said it before, and i’ll say it again – Mizzou OC Kirby Moore (formerly at Fresno State L2Y) is a national treasure and a chip off the old Kalen DeBouer coaching tree block who deserves to be a household CFB name by now. This line opened at 282.5 on DK, which I attacked with impunity, and is now up to 291.5 on DK and 302.5 on FD. He threw for 175 in a 38-21 drubbing against a snail-paced Kentucky where they were salting the game away in the second half, but threw for at least 341 yards in each of his previous four games. DK is smart enough to not post another +425 ALT line on Cook’s 325+ passing yards for us to assault again (congrats to all of you who profited on that gift), but we’re still getting a sub-300 line against a South Carolina team that is ready made for a competitive back-and-forth with QB Spencer Rattler ready to duel. As is customary, this line will climb over 300 once I post this column, so get it in ASAP.
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Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn vs. Ole Miss – Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Why on earth would DK put up Jarquez Hunter at 59.5 rushing yards when he hasn’t cleared that mark One Single Time all season? It’s not like he’s coming off a banger performance or anything with Hunter for Hire gaining just 16 yards on seven carries against a lackluster LSU defense last week. Sure Ole Miss isn’t Georgia but they can sure put up points, which could get Auburn and their ineffective QB Payton Thorne to abandon the run like they did against the Tigers last week and resort to a chuck-and-duck mentality. The only way this clears is if he hits a giant chunk run or they go full triple-option with Robby Ashford under center. Even then Hunter is essentially a rotational piece at this point. I have to take the Under 59.5 Rush Yards on principle here.
Cam Ward, QB, Wazzu vs. Oregon – Under 253.5 Passing Yards
The bloom is off the proverbial rose for Ward, as he failed to clear 200 passing yards against UCLA’s top-10 secondary, but then repeated that uninspiring feat against Arizona who seemed to be a dream matchup for the pass-heavy Cougars and OC Ben Arbuckle. He also only reached 212 passing yards versus Wisconsin in Week 2, with Oregon State being the only Power Five program he’s actually cleared this number against. Now he’s playing Oregon who snuffed out Colorado’s high-flying aerial assault and wants revenge after losing to fellow Washingtonian program UW last week in a heartbreaker. OU HC Dan Lanning will be ready to handle business versus WSU this week, give me the Under 253.5 Passing Yards on The Psych Ward.
Jaylin Lucas, RB, Indiana – Under 35.5 Rushing Yards
A talented, but diminutive (5’9/180) all-purpose back who excels in the return and receiving game, Lucas is ill-equipped to handle interior rusing work against a rock-hard (Juice Robinson reference) Rutgers front-seven that ranks 34th nationally allowing 116 rush yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry. For his part, Lucas has only cleared 35.5 rushing yards twice this year – once against FCS Indiana State (10 for 88 yards) and then versus a pitiful Akron team (13 for 43 yards).
Over the last two weeks, Lucas received two carries for six yards vs. Michigan (alright, mulligan) and seven carries for 28 yards versus Maryland. This line actually opened at a gaudy 41.5 rush yards, but has been bet down to a still very appealing Under 35.5 rush yards, which is a strong play in my opinion.
2023-10-20 15:36:10
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