Clive Woodward had dreamed of it. World champion in 2003 at the head of England, the only European country in history to have lifted the Webb-Ellis trophy, the former coach promised a big clean-up at the end of the quarter-finals. The North was to sweep away the South and confirm a paradigm shift, notably driven by Ireland, number 1 in the World Rugby rankings, and France. His predictions? A full box of Europe with qualifiers for the semi-finals of Wales, Ireland, England and France.
But Clive Woodward’s dream was shattered by the cruel reality of international rugby. Saturday evening (9 p.m., TF1), the grand final will pit the club’s regulars against each other: New Zealand and South Africa, three titles each. The Webb-Ellis Cup will remain below the equator for the 9th time in 10 editions of the World Cup. “This seems to me to be implacably logical. It’s a competition between 20 countries and, in the end, it’s the southern hemisphere that wins,” summarizes our columnist Pierre Berbizier, an unfortunate finalist in the first edition in 1987.
The South has never lost so many matches
After 1995 (South Africa – New Zealand) and 2015 (New Zealand – Australia), the 2023 edition will even be the third in history to pit two southern nations in the final. And the South was already over-represented in the semi-finals: 3/4 this year, as in 1999 (and even 4/4 in 2015). In the other seven Worlds, the balance was respected in the last four. But the current competition remains surprising for two reasons: Europe has never placed four nations in the first four places in the group stage and the South has never lost so many matches.
Although expected, the elimination of Australia before the quarter-finals remains a small revolution. In the groups, the Springboks and All Blacks fell to Ireland and France. New Zealand even lost the first meeting in its history at this stage of the tournament. Facts which therefore mean nothing. As in 2019, the world champion will have lost at least once. And the Irish and French who died of starvation returned to eat their daily bread.
“Every team has cycles, ups and downs. But it’s true that South Africa’s game suits the World Cup format really well. Physical domination, very effective kicking, and varied offensive options,” Springbok legend Bryan Habana explained to us in early September. A perfect illustration of the quarter-final won against the Blues or the semi-final snatched at the end of the match against England. But how can we explain this success?
“The teams from the South arrived fresher”
Over the years, the cultural border between North and South has become more refined. The vast majority of Argentine players play in Europe, as do 7 of the 33 Springboks. South African franchises also participate in the United Rugby Championship alongside Irish, Welsh, Scottish and Italian clubs, as well as in the European Cup with French and English clubs. But one point remains crucial in preparing for a World Cup: the overloaded schedule for players from the northern hemisphere, between national championships, continental events and the Six Nations Tournament. While in 2023, the Rugby Championship (the competition of the southern nations) only had three days compared to six in normal times.
Our consultant Pierre Berbizier wonders, for example, about the differences in playing time between the French and the Irish on the one hand, the New Zealanders and the South Africans on the other: “We would need data to verify that but I noticed that the teams from the South arrived fresher in the quarter-finals, with better management of their individual and collective energy in the quarter-finals. However, a World Cup is always won on energy management. »
The Antoine Dupont case is symptomatic. Victim of a maxillo-zygomatic fracture in the group phase, the Blues scrum-half accumulated 28 starts between September 4, 2022 and August 27, 2023, with Stade Toulouse and the XV of France. Over the same period, his South African (Faf De Klerk) or New Zealand (Aaron Smith) counterparts have made 18 and 15 starts in all competitions. The Southerners play less, prepare more and it counts at the moment of truth. The good news for Europe is that the next World Cup will take place in Australia in four years. As in 2003, the year of the global coronation of the English, the sole kings of the North. Which had lost, four years earlier, in the quarter-final at the Stade de France against… South Africa.
