These days rugby exemplifies the thoughtful research of the mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who compared what one of the most renowned Chinese proverbs already warned: “The flutter of a butterfly’s wings can be felt on the other side of the world.” Or what is the same, the butterfly effect.
The Kiwi rugby bubble
On May 7, 2020, the executive president of New Zealand RugbyMark Robinson, confirmed that in accordance with what was stipulated by his Government, New Zealand rugby was isolating in a bubble, inaugurating the Investec Super Rugby Aotearoa, which would involve the five New Zealand franchises that until then played Super Rugby with Australians, Africans and Argentines. Thus, Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders and Highlanders started a local double-round tournament developed by NZR together with SANZAAR, its Super Rugby clubs and the New Zealand Rugby Players Association, the NZRPA.
The decision, unilateral and governmental, left Australians and South Africans crossed in the middle of the road, the latter deciding to take a transgressive initiative that is clearly fundamental to explain what is happening in this World Cup and on the oval planet in recent times. The South African Super Rugby franchises emigrated to the northern hemisphere to enroll in European competitions, which were also held in a more friendly time slot for Bokke fans.
Without the powerful South African forwards now enrolled in the liturgical rugby of the north, when the pandemic was overcome, the Australians and Kiwis decided to add two franchises from the Pacific Islands, Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika, trying to regain some competitiveness. But nothing has ever been the same. Today, Three years after that decision, resignation is the common denominator when explaining that fateful decision. All Blacks forward coach Jason Ryan acknowledges that the loss of the South African Super Rugby teams has had an impact on the forward play of southern countries and, more specifically, that of New Zealand.
Loose goats, and Europe
“From my experience I can affirm that It was always fun and very enriching to play against the South Africans in Super Rugby, due to their great forward packages. There probably isn’t that kind of requirement anymore. that was before in this tournament. To be honest, Super Rugby probably isn’t what it used to be, but we shouldn’t use that as an excuse either. We have to get the work right in training. It’s something we learned in the pre-World Cup test we played in Twickenham against South Africa (which NZ lost (35-7) to the Springboks).” And they confirmed it against the host France in the opening match of the World Cup, where they were defeated again. (27-13).
Continuing with Lorenz’s theories, it could be stated that the All Blacks are installed in “an unstable equilibrium” that does not look promising for their team in this World Cup. That loss of competitiveness in Super Rugby, who dominate with insulting ease after the departure of the South Africans, has generated a second pernicious effect for its rugby: a mass exodus of its players to Japan to fill your pockets with the generous salaries paid by Japanese companies in a friendly league with lower demands than there are, for example in Europe. Furthermore, the players know that Using the Japan shortcut only excludes them from selection for short periods, As it does not happen to those who cross the pond to the Old Continent, who leave the All Blacks window.
Defense of man
This competitive condescension has led to less demanding rugby, especially in the defensive aspect. Theory supported, among others, by Ronan O’Gara himself, a former Irish international who currently coaches Stade Rochelais, current champion of the European Champions Cup and who was also an assistant on the technical staff of the Crusaders, in the New Zealand city of Christchurch. , with which he won two Super Rugby titles between 2017 and 2019: “The problem New Zealand have now is that defensively it looks like they are still defending the man. And given the teams’ ability to retain the ball now, if you keep pushing them towards the wing, the opponent will have too much possession and will be able to make many attacks with different alternatives. “Probably then they will have to defend a lot of players with X factor.”
That has immediately put the focus on All Blacks defense coach Scott MacLeod, whose systems many consider “outdated” and even describe as “too passive.” While the attacking (Joe Schmidt) and forward (Jason Ryan) coaches are respected, there is a current of opinion that considers that the head coach, Ian Foster, and MacLeod himself, are stuck in the past and far from the technicians who work in the north. It is not surprising, therefore, that Scott Robertson, the already proclaimed future New Zealand coach after the World Cup, has not shown any interest in keeping MacLeod on his staff next year.
This is how the All Blacks reach the crucial stage of a World Cup in which public opinion, supported by the results, sees them a step below the abrasive rugby of the Irish and the expansive game of the French. Not to mention the physical superiority that South Africa is showing with that ‘Bomb Squad’, the bench unit with seven forwards and a three-quarters, which devastates its rivals in the second half. Some forwards who are missed in their continental competitions by the well-off All Blacks while in Europe they congratulate themselves for having integrated the Bokkes into their competitions, triggering the physical dimension of their matches. It all began with the flutter of that butterfly on May 7, 2020, when New Zealand shielded itself from the world against the pandemic and the All Blacks stopped being what they were.
2023-09-28 05:59:18
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