Damian Lillard will play alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Milwaukee Bucks next season! The deal is now dry. We look at the trade and analyze what it means for the teams involved and the Miami Heat.
It took almost three months, but now Damian Lillard has gotten his wish (in parts). The 33-year-old is being traded by the Portland Trail Blazers to Milwaukee, although the guard has repeatedly indicated through various channels that he would like to play in Miami.
That didn’t happen, but the All-Star guard gets the chance to get his first ring in Milwaukee alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. The deal is a big surprise since little was heard about the Bucks as a possible suitor for months. Instead, Miami and most recently Toronto were discussed as possible partners in a Lillard trade.
However, Portland decided otherwise and preferred the offer of the Bucks and the Phoenix Suns as a third team. Here is the trade at a glance:
Damian Lillard: The trade at a glance
Damian Lillard: How does he fit with the Bucks?
For Lillard, the Bucks are breaking down their Big Three of Holiday, Middleton and Giannis, which brought the franchise a championship in 2021. After two rather disappointing postseasons (out against Boston in round two, out against Miami in round one) and the increasing pressure from Antetokounmpo, the Bucks now decided on this risky option, which completely changes the team’s identity.
Holiday was the pinnacle of a traditionally strong defense, and the 33-year-old is one of the best, if not the best, guard defenders in the NBA. However, Holiday was also quite inconsistent offensively and was one of the reasons why the Bucks repeatedly had problems scoring in the playoffs. Lillard, on the other hand, solves this problem.
No matter how bad the Blazers have been in recent years, they have always had an elite offense thanks to Lillard. The point guard is one of the best offensive players in the league and has all the qualities that the modern NBA needs from the guard position. The 33-year-old is almost impossible to defend in the pick’n’roll because he can throw from all positions and make the right pass at any time. With Giannis and Lillard, the Bucks now have two of the six players in their ranks who averaged over 30 points last year.
It doesn’t take much of a visionary to imagine how difficult it will be to defend a Lillard-Giannis pick’n’roll. Under coach Mike Budenholzer, this play, mostly with Middleton, wasn’t run that often, but that should change under rookie coach Adrian Griffin, also because Lillard is miles better than any other player on the Bucks squad in this discipline.
Antetokounmpo has also shown that he is not afraid to make numerous blocks. As a roll man, there is hardly a player who can hold a candle to him here. Combined with the numerous shooters the Bucks have on the roster, Lillard is exactly the type of player this team needs. And: In Lillard, the Bucks now have another crunch time player who can single-handedly decide games. In the past it was usually Middleton, but he was no longer able to build on his strong postseason in 2021 after his knee injuries.
That’s one side of the trade, but on the other hand the Bucks are losing their defensive identity. Thanks to Holiday, Milwaukee was able to defend very flexibly, but now the team hardly has any option to contain opposing guards. The Bucks will probably play more drop defense again in order to steer the attackers towards Giannis and Lopez, who are difficult to overcome at the ring.
In particular, the trade swapped defense for offense, but there is still a lot of quality left, at least in the frontcourt.
Damian Lillard: Are the Bucks now favorites for the title?
Even before the trade, the Bucks were considered one of the hot contenders for the championship, but the Lillard deal has improved their prospects even further. Yes, defense could be a problem, but if you look at the teams in the East, you’ll quickly see that the best guards tend to play in the other conference.
This means that the weak guard defense is less important. Both Boston and Miami do not have an All-Star number one, Philadelphia is unclear what will happen next with James Harden and at 34 years old he is no longer as explosive as he used to be. That’s another reason why this trade makes sense and makes Holiday’s departure bearable.
Anyone who would like to point out that the Bucks are not particularly deep is absolutely right, after all, Grayson Allen was also given away. There are still eight or nine capable rotation players remaining. That’s a small amount, but it can be enough and one of the young players might surprise you.
But this is a problem for the regular season and not the playoffs. At the same time, Lillard and Giannis also help each other by being able to share some of the offensive load. In 2022/23 the two were in positions one and four in terms of usage rate, but that will certainly change in the coming season.
The Bucks squad with Damian Lillard at a glance
Damian Lillard: Did the Bucks pay too much?
Admittedly, it wasn’t cheap. The Bucks sacrificed three first-round picks, and Holiday is certainly worth two first-rounders. On the other hand, you take a star away from a direct competitor, Miami, and have more security with the trade. Holiday’s contract only runs until 2025, he could have left next summer and as we already explained in our text on Antetokounmpo’s contract situation a few weeks ago, there would have been almost no alternative to extending Holiday.
It’s safe to assume that Holiday would have been expensive, similar to Lillard. For now, the Blazers legend is earning almost $10 million more, but at the same time Dame DOLLA is the significantly better player. Of course, his contract may be a problem in the long term, but it could develop in a similar way with Holiday.
The Bucks took a huge risk with the trade like they did in the Holiday trade in 2021. They no longer have any picks, they are damn expensive (salary costs: just over $180 million) and are still top-heavy. If in doubt, the Bucks still have players in Middleton, B. Lopez, Portis or Connaughton who could be traded to adjust the team a little.
But in order to satisfy Giannis, it was probably necessary and at the same time the chances of another title have improved. And if Milwaukee wins just one more ring in the coming years, the trade will have paid off either way.
Damian Lillard: What does the trade mean for the Blazers?
Whether the Blazers have made the best possible deal here cannot be answered at this point. Roughly broken down, they traded 33-year-old All-Stars plus the side deal with the Suns. Holiday almost certainly won’t be a part of the future, a trade will come sooner or later.
The defensive specialist will generate a lot of interest (more on that tomorrow), and it’s possible that the Blazers will also squeeze out one or two picks and/or young players here. The Blazers have little need for guard anyway; Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe are expected to usher in a new era.
Deandre Ayton, whom Phoenix seemed desperate to get rid of, is now also part of this era. The 25-year-old is in the second year of his four-year, $133 million contract but has not yet been able to live up to it in Phoenix. It’s a negative contract for now, but Ayton has shown his potential from time to time, especially during the Suns’ Finals run in 2021.
Maybe a new start will be good for the man from the Bahamas, Ayton has had a difficult time with the fans in Phoenix and also within the Suns for a long time. In Portland, the center should get more touches and will make Henderson’s life a little easier. Ayton is offensively talented, but that wasn’t needed in Phoenix.
Ayton is also younger than the handed-off Jusuf Nurkic and is therefore a better fit for the Blazers’ rebuild, which is certainly not yet complete with this trade.
Because on paper, the Blazers squad isn’t that bad. Jerami Grant and Ayton form a solid frontcourt, plus Holiday as a strong guard for the moment. The latter is likely to be traded sooner rather than later. Grant, on the other hand, only signed a new five-year contract worth $160 million in the summer and can be passed on from December 15th.
Blazers: The Cadre after the Lillard-Trade
Damian Lillard: What does the trade mean for the Suns?
Ayton was the last asset the Suns had in potential deals following the Beal trade, and as expected, the Suns used him to acquire multiple players to strengthen the rotation. Ayton’s replacement is Nurkic (29), who can be seen as a clear downgrade.
A few years ago, Nurkic was a good protector of the ring, but at the same time the Bosnian is not as flexible as Ayton. The same applies to the offense, where Nurkic finishes much worse at the ring and is hardly noticed despite a solid touch from outside. What also spoke for Ayton: He was almost never injured, while Nurkic has had repeated injuries for years and has traditionally struggled with fitness deficiencies.
What is positive from the Suns’ point of view is that Nurkic only receives half as much for the same contract term. It is still a weakening for the postseason; perhaps coach Frank Vogel, who always wants to play with a five-man team, will rely more on “small” lineups with Durant (2.11 meters) as center.
This is possible because the trade also gives Phoenix more choice on the wing. Nassir Little showed good signs in Portland before his serious injury and is very cheap (4 years, 28 million). There is also another shooter in Allen, whose contract expires next summer.
With Eric Gordon and Damion Lee, the Suns actually already have a few alternatives here, and Allen may become interesting again as a possible trade chip in February. With his defensive limitations, he was always the Bucks’ weak point in defense, and that won’t change in Phoenix.
The Suns squad at a glance
italics = contract not guaranteed
Damian Lillard: The trade from the Miami Heat’s perspective
But the big loser of the trade is the Miami Heat. So it was worth it for Portland not to lose its nerve in July. Ultimately, the Bucks made them an offer that was significantly better than the Heat’s. Miami now has to look elsewhere, which is easier said than done.
With Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Cody Zeller, the Heat lost three rotation players from their playoff run, and instead a lot will once again fall on the shoulders of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Miami will again play a good role with this team, but with this composition they will not be one of the favorites in the East.
The Heat simply weren’t willing to put all their chips in the middle, which is understandable. If Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic, Tyler Herro and picks had been traded away, there wouldn’t have been much left of the team – even if the trio Lillard, Butler, Adebayo would have been a damn good one.
Lillard’s agent Aaron Goodwin saw it a little differently: “They tried everything to get Dame. I appreciate what Pat did [Riley]Andy [Elisburg] and Mickey [Arison] tried to make this trade,” Goodwin told Anthony Chang (Miami Herald).
So it’s time to wait and see which star will be available next. Because if the past has shown anything, it’s that Miami is always capable of building a good team from nothing. Ironically, Adrian Wojnarowski (ESPN) brought Holiday into the conversation, but Miami will have other options sooner or later.
Miami Heat: The squad at a glance
2023-09-28 06:59:00
#NBA #Damian #Lillard #Milwaukee #Bucks #trade #analysis
