Do Venezuelan MLB Players Omar Vizquel, Bob Abreu, Francisco Rodríguez, and Víctor Martínez Have a Chance at the Hall of Fame?

When a new vote for the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame is held next year, there will be four Venezuelans who will be on the ballot: Omar Vizquel, Bob Abreu, Francisco Rodríguez and Víctor Martínez, who will be eligible for the first time in 2024.

It is worth remembering that to enter Cooperstown you need at least 75% of the votes cast and 5% to stay in the competition for up to ten years (before it was fifteen).

In the last vote carried out, where Scott Rolen achieved the percentage, after six attempts, the compatriot who had the most support was former shortstop Omar Vizquel, with 76 ballots (19.5%), followed by Bob Abreu, who obtained 60 votes (15, 4 %); and ex-closer Francisco “Kid” Rodríguez with 42 votes (10.8%).

The three are still in the race, but do they really have a chance to enter one day?

The first in discord is Omar Vizquel. Since his first foray into the ballots, “Manos de Seda” announced that in five or six years he had a real chance of entering.
Well, that’s what the first three years indicated. In 2018 he started with 37.0%, rose to 42.8% (2019) and 52.6% in 2020. He had better percentages than Scott Rolen, who debuted in the polls the same year.

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And the numbers do not lie, since Rolen had 10.2% (2018), 17.2% (2019) and 35.3% (2020), however, that same year of the pandemic, the world fell on the man from Caracas. Two personal problems for the shortstop reversed roles.

While Vizquel is in decline with 49.1% (2021), 23.9% (2022) and 19.5% (2023), the American reached Cooperstown with 52.9% (2021), 63.2% (2022) and 76.3% this year.

I agree with several specialists who point out that the votes lost by Vizquel due to his private life, many voters channeled towards Rolen. Quality is not denied to the gringo, who also played third base, but rather Vizquel had defensive, but not offensive, numbers that underpinned his real options.

In short, if this phenomenal downturn that, for many, threatens at one point not to reach the required 5% does not continue, Vizquel lost the chance to enter via vote of social communicators.

The second in contention is Bob Abreu, whose numbers are above average for major leaguers in general, but they do not reach the realm of the spectacular.

Going back to the vote numbers, in 2020 he achieved just 5.5% (that is, he stays in the apparatus for a while), rising to 8.7% (2021), 8.6% (2022) and 15.4% this year. These projections indicate that the Aragua native will have to go through the veterans committee in the future.

Specialists indicate that their numbers are similar to others who have already entered Cooperstown such as Jim Rice, Andrew Dawson (by the way none in their early years) and Harold Baines (veterans committee).

Let’s just take certain parameters into account, so as not to lengthen the story: Rice in 16 years batted .298 with 2,452 hits, 373 doubles, 79 triples, 382 home runs and 1,451 RBIs; Baines in 22 tournaments hit .289 with 2,866 H, 488 2B, 49 3B, 384 HR and 1,628 IC; Dawson in 21 years hit .279 with 2,774 H, 502 2B, 93 3B, 438 HR and 1,591 CI; and Abreu in 18 seasons hit .291 with 2,470 H, 574 2B, 59 3B, 288 HR and 1,363 CI, plus 400 steals and 1,476 tickets.

Except for homers and RBIs, the numbers are very similar. Hence, the sabermetrics indicate that Abreu is in the same range as those mentioned and others.
We close with Francisco Rodríguez. The first point in his favor is his record in the majors of 62 saves (2008) for 437 lifetime, still the fourth all-time in the MLB. The 10.8% of his first year does not honor him.

2023-07-31 02:52:08
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