The economic indicators of the hockey championship, or welcome to the new Vasjukis of Stakis

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These analyses mission is very simple – for a fair and just treatment of things. The hockey team played well, deserving of appropriate (emphasis – appropriate) recognition, taking into account our resources, expected against the background of 7-8 serious teams and considering the fact that they played in strongly weakened teams. But this time not for the sports side.

The Riga City Council (RD) has just announced the economic success of the championship. It turns out that we are also champions here. More than 30,000 guests, 44 million euros brought in, 50% hotel occupancy increase, 30-50% increase in cafe turnover. Let’s talk about it.

Seeing this, everyone who follows economic statistics in the country and understands this from the WC in hockey, cannot help but have questions. First of all – who invented these numbers and gave them to the RD bosses? There is an impression that hosting the WC in hockey is excellent business for the country. Since when does no country want business, leaving it to the Latvians for what year? Similar to rene sports. The German says – he could make money, but no – let’s give up in favor of the Latvians! By the way, there are serious studies (eg https://www.surrey.ac.uk/news/world-cup-its-winning-not-hosting-delivers-economic-boost ) showing that even hosting the World Cup in football, which is attended by millions, it is far from financially beneficial for the organizing country, it can even bring losses.

30,000 guests

We analyze our group. Slovenia. The positive optimists of “LTV Sports” talked about the 30-40 arriving Slovenians. To be all 50. Canada. 20? Ok, let’s count 50. Norway. To have 50 at the expense of families, friends. Kazakhstan . 100? Without an embassy. I doubt it, but we count. There are 250. I won’t be petty. Let’s put these together 500because there are a couple of hundred Finns also. Quarter final vs to the Swedes. 100? I was told by a reliable source that there were 10. I don’t know exactly, but hardly that few. So then let’s count all 500so that all of this first group comes together round 1000.

Czech Republic, Slovakia and Switzerland. 29 thousand remain for these three. As if even more, because “there were more than 30 thousand”

I will start with a lie from personal experience. I am quoting the article mentioned in the RD chairman’s tweet: “According to the information at our disposal, 8,000 fans from Switzerland came to the hockey championship game Switzerland-Canada.” Here is the article: https://www.riga.lv/lv/jaunums/rigas-dome-hokeja-svetki-pilsetai-deva-30-tukstosus-turistu-un-butisku-pienesumu-ekonomikai

I was at this game. The official visit to this game is on the IIHF website 8234 viewers. Imagine an arena with only the Swiss! There were no Swiss in the sector I was sitting in and in the neighboring sectors. Since I pay more attention to this, I would say that it was 2500-4500 Swiss. Let one of the visitors of this game have a say! If you are not a cretinous liar, you will agree with me.

Czech-Slovak match. Official statistics – 7800 the viewer. How many without Latvians, Swiss? Not to mention the regularly exaggerated WC statistics. How many Czechs and Slovaks were there in this unique game? I would say – maybe 5000but probably less.

Switzerland-Kazakhstan. 2867 audience official. With a sufficient share of Latvians. So how many Swiss were there? Kazakhs also have their own 100 should be allocated. I doubt there was anything in this game 2000 Swiss, certainly less so.

Czech Republic-Slovenia. 3670 officially. With a Latvian dose. So how many Czechs were there? Also a little Slovenian. 2000-2500 Czech maybe. Probably similar to the Slovak match – they already went.

Slovakia – Kazakhstan. 3670 officially. With a Latvian dose, of course. To the Slovak important match. So how many Slovaks were there? 100 Kazakhs again. Maybe 2500? Also the same ones who went to the Czech match

Czech Republic-Switzerland. 7150. With a Latvian dose, of course. Probably the Czechs and the Swiss together 5000 maybe (I doubt it) created.

Everyone reasonable personwho will not consider that other Czechs, Slovaks and Swiss came to each unique game, will be able to logically calculate that with a huge, huge attraction, there could be 15 thousand guests. Rather closer to the same 10 thousand.

Preliminary calculations show that the championship in Riga attracted an additional 44 million euros to the national economy. I would really like to see the calculation methodology and authors.

In order to measure the economic impact in this case, the value added exported should basically be calculated, not the total money spent. Example: a Czech arrived and left with a Czech airline, slept in the hotel of the bag owners, ate McDonalds, drank Irish whiskey. Our exported added value can be measured from the money he left behind, probably 50% or less of the turnover – we are left with taxes, wages for locals plus some other little things. Local consumption is conditionally countable, because the money had an alternative use even here. Even if we believe 15 000 guests, whether on average one guest could have contributed to the turnover 3000 euros? Don’t make fun of the people!

In the middle of July, the Bank of Latvia will publish data on Latvia’s balance of payments for May, and there we will see the important figure – foreign travelers’ expenses in Latvia in May. Then you can model and play with this figure. I didn’t notice anything in 2006 when I played with it.

50% increase in hotel occupancy

Right now I will say that I just don’t believe it. No data yet. However, I can offer amateur estimates. CSB data show that in 2019 (before the pandemic), the number of guests served in LV hotels and other tourist accommodations during the year was 2.85 million. 237 thousand on average per month. Champis was here for half a month. Divide by two – 120 thousand. Seasonality. May is worse than the summer months, better than the rest. A normal half-month of May could perhaps be valued at 150 thousand? I would roughly imagine so. So 75 thousand present. Seriously? Check out my previous analysis! Those 10-15 thousand, not all of whom lived in hotels and who spent an average of 3-4 nights (some one, some two, some seven, some eight), will not get more than 50 thousand. Would rather 30 thousandI would say.

During the hockey championship, the turnover of entrepreneurs (meaning cafes) increased by 30-50% on average

I am looking at the 2019 turnover in this industry (so that the pandemic does not affect).

On average, 61 million euros will be collected per month. Champis half a month. So around 30 million in 2019 prices, but let’s not forget about inflation. The 30 of that time will now be all 40 (unfortunately, the data for 2022 have not been published yet, but the indicators for 2020 and 2021 cannot be used due to the pandemic). Let’s assume there isn’t a huge seasonality effect on May. If we assume a maximum of 15,000 guests, it turns out that everyone left on average in terms of food and drink 2670 euros. OK, I got it. Of course, there is also local consumption, but please do not call it for export.

Welcome to the new Vasjukis!

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