Three factors that will decide Warriors vs. Kings

By Ole Frerks

As the old saying goes, a playoff series doesn’t begin until the home team has lost a game. So basically we’re still waiting for the round between the Kings and Warriors to finally start – weird. Because it feels as if so much has already happened between these two teams, as if they have met again and again over the years, as if different series are kind of flowing into each other. And at the same time, the neutral viewer can hardly get enough of it.

The two Californian teams are well on the way to producing a classic. More than four games have already been seen (selection incomplete): A near-buzzerbeater, the arrival of a new playoff killer, the (deserved) suspension of a future Hall of Famer, an unbelievable brain fart by one of the best players of his generation… and quite a few at the same time outstanding actions of this very superstar.

This series has it all! Anyone who is currently switching from another playoff game to Kings Warriors sometimes has to wonder whether they accidentally hit the fast-forward button. The pace is incredible, the offensive level anyway – and the accompanying stories too. The Dynasty is fighting with all its might against this season’s big surprise team, the best team in recent years battling one who are making their first postseason appearance in 17 years.

After four games, it’s still unclear who will prevail in the end and meet the Lakers or Grizzlies in the next round – so it’s really just getting started. Ahead of Game 5 on Thursday night, we look at three factors that will determine the outcome of the series.

1. The role of Draymond Green

The previous games have once again shown the different sides of the greens. Team-damaging behavior in the form of stomping on Domantas Sabonis and suspension on the one hand, and his comeback in Game 4 on the other when Green himself suggested coming off the bench in a playoff game for the first time since 2014.

Viewed soberly, it didn’t change that much, Green played 31 minutes in the end and thus exactly as much as in game 2 (33 in game 1). In the third quarter, when Golden State temporarily took control of the game, Green “started” again in place of Jordan Poole. It was primarily a symbolic gesture, an apology. But his time on the court should also have reminded the Warriors why they have put up with Draymond’s antics for years.

There’s no other player who can throw 3/14 out of the field and still make such a massive mark on a game. Who takes the all-star center on the opposite side out of the game and in the second half can defend what is perhaps the fastest point guard in the league at the moment.

Green defended Second Spectrum according to both De’Aaron Fox and Sabonis for exactly 13 plays in Game 4 – who else can do that? Also, who can deny Malik Monk when you REALLY don’t want him to get the ball? It was a defensive masterpiece that Green conjured up on the floor both on the ball and as a helper…

Draymond Green: The last resort against Fox

Fox still made a very good game overall, but had bigger problems in the second half when he was defended more often by Green (17 points, 5/15 FG, 2 turnovers). As has now become known, he also broke his left index finger shortly before the end, which even makes him questionable for game 5.

A failure would be doubly bitter, since Fox has been the only king in this series to date in every game and has caused massive problems for the Warriors. The fact that Green has now been able to take him over several times is a luxury for Steve Kerr on the one hand, and on the other hand it was the ultima ratio, so to speak. Other options simply didn’t work well against Fox in its playoff debut (31.5 PPG, 7 APG in the series).

Green is taller yet very mobile, and he knows better than almost anyone how to position himself so that Fox can’t easily get past him and still doesn’t have too much room for his throw. It’s a fine line, but Green won this game enough times in Game 4.

The 33-year-old always gives his team a headache. In contrast to some other “querulants” (greetings to Dillon Brooks), the positive still clearly outweighs the positive – for the moment he remains simply the best playoff defender in the NBA. As long as he doesn’t take himself out of the game…

2. Who is Domantas Sabonis?

The fact that the Warriors can sometimes afford to let their best big defender help out on the wing has to do with the strong performances of Kevon Looney, but also with Sabonis himself. The center, so outstanding in the regular season, is hardly recognizable in this series , only in game 2 he was really present offensively.

Put simply, that’s because the Warriors often defend him like Russell Westbrook did when he was with the Lakers. Or like, ironically, Draymond Green. If Sabonis gets the ball at the three-pointer or even close to the free-throw line, no defender picks it up directly. Instead, it descends and waits for him almost directly at the basket, which has two somewhat dramatic consequences.

For one thing, it limits the effectiveness of Sabonis’ handoff plays – the Kings generated more points from such plays than any other team during the season, but when their own defender isn’t around, the shooter’s defender can get around Sabonis himself more easily , to make the eventual throw more difficult.

The Kings had 10.2 handoff plays per game during the season nba.com/stats 1.07 points per play. Against the Warriors it’s 0.79 points with 9.5 plays per game. That means: A central building block of the best offense in the NBA is simply not a weapon.

Sabonis plays into the hands of the Warriors

The Warriors also manage to mess up the flow of the actually so dynamic Kings offense again and again through this deep sinking. It helps that they only have a limited fear of Sabonis rolling out of the handoff. His defender is waiting under the basket – the Warriors don’t want him to be able to finish directly on the ring, but they can live with any other throw. And Sabonis has been playing into their hands so far.

Sabonis took 66 percent of his throws out loud Cleaning the Glass in the season directly at the basket, 27 percent came from the middle distance. Against the Warriors it’s 40 percent at the ring and 57 (!) percent from the middle distance, from where he hits only 39 percent, although almost every end is completely open.

With many possessions, the question mark above his head is easy to guess. Sabonis actually wants to stage other players or, after the switch, stuff smaller opponents into the basket with brute force (and good footwork). The Warriors largely take both options away from him. Instead, he gets a runway with one of the league’s best postal defenders waiting at the end. Or just a throw that he does not want to take.

Examples of what this leads to are scenes like this:

If Fox is out, but otherwise Sacramento will need more from Sabonis, as well as from the previously almost invisible Kevin Huerter. The Lithuanian in particular is far too good an attacking player to be so confused by falling.

3. Who manages to stay calm?

Point 2 in particular was critical of the Kings – but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Sacramento could easily lead 3-1. Maybe even should lead. The Kings are right in the middle of this series, although they feel they still have more room for improvement than Golden State, especially in terms of sabonis and the three-point ratio, which is over 6 full percentage points below the value of the regular season.

For Game 5, the series returns to Sacramento, where the “Beam Team” has been far more comfortable and did an even better job of turning the Warriors off their game. Traditionally, many role players are a lot more reliable in the playoffs at home. As simple as that may sound, the intensity and focus also seemed stronger, which can be proven in the Possession Game, among other things.

With the exception of Game 4, when Golden State simply had better odds, the team that shot more often in this series has always won the game because it produced fewer turnovers and picked up more offensive rebounds. With all the tactical tricks, it is very often these factors that decide between victory and defeat in a series, especially when two offensively powerful teams meet.

Ball losses and rebounds are crucial

The loss of the ball is particularly important. The Kings are the less experienced team, but the Warriors are traditionally at least as prone to turnovers, which almost tripped them up again in Game 4.

Stephen Curry, of all people, who has otherwise played the usual sensational series so far (the offense is 27 points per 100 ball possession better in his minutes), would have given the dubs the win thanks to his Chris Webber Memorial time-out and the much too early pull-up jumper almost cost in the next attack.

The Kings, on the other hand, had more than enough of these scenes themselves; With 1:40 left, their most experienced playoff player Harrison Barnes Sabonis could easily have given an open dunk to Green instead he challenged Green himself and failed.

In the fourth quarter alone, the Kings gave away the ball five times. No wonder the game felt like a missed opportunity, and not just because of the three-pointer Barnes missed.

Advantage for the Warriors?

After the Fox injury and two victories for Golden State, there is suddenly a lot to be said for the Warriors again – that was the case with the bookmakers even before the series, and yet there has hardly been a piece of paper between the novices and the old hands .

Golden State has also been a disastrous away team this season, but they can’t advance to the next round without at least one away win. It’s not over for the Kings, or for this series. Fortunately.