Rookie Watch IV: The Trouble with Jabari Smith Jr.

You can’t repeat it often enough. It is extremely important for rookies in which situations they find themselves in their new teams. A recent example: Jabari Smith Jr. with the Houston Rockets. The Big Man was drawn with the third pick in the summer, but after a weak Summer League and a catastrophic start to the season, Smith, once considered a top pick, has been quiet.

At first glance, the 19-year-old has few arguments. A rate of 38.3 percent with at least 10 throw attempts per game has never been seen for a player of his height (2.09 meters), and the rookie is one of the most inefficient players in the entire league. The throw was considered the greatest strength, but only 29 percent of downtown paint a different picture. In contrast, his graduating weaknesses were evident in college, and little has changed (only 46.7 percent from the dual class).

Nevertheless, in theory there is a good and also quite rare player in Smith. This reads: A shot creator that can throw over defenders with its lengthworks well on the offensive board and as a switch defender can also act as a small ball five in the long run.

The problem: Houston doesn’t know what to do with the ninth youngest player in the NBA at the moment, as even coach Stephen Silas indirectly admitted. “He’s young and still looking for his place,” the coach said Antscape. “He’s tough and he’s wearing himself down defensively, even though he doesn’t get much support. We don’t run plays for him either.”

And that last sentence says a lot about the Rockets, who currently have the worst record in the league. Several media representatives speak of a “circus” when they talk about the Texans, nowhere else is the “team culture” as bad as in Houston. After the departure of Eric Gordon, there are eleven players in the squad who are no more than 23 years old. The veterans are Boban Marjanovic and Willie Cauley-Stein, well…

That’s what it looks like on the field. With Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, the backcourt is equipped with two trigger-happy guards, neither of whom are good passers. Recently, more has been said about Alperen Sengün, who is also a good shot creator. So Smith is almost inevitably only the fourth or fifth option as there are better play makers in the roster.

And defensively? It’s not a revelation so far either, but in a starting five full of defensive allergies Smith even makes a useful impression. A really fair evaluation is hardly possible because of this lousy Rockets team. Of course, the rookie is still missing the pounds for the rookie to actually play as a five and at times he still looks lost as a wing defender, but that’s quite normal for most newcomers.

Jabari Smith: His stats for the Houston Rockets

A photo of the Rising Stars Challenge caused a stir in Rockets circles, significantly taller than Smith next to Sengün as the Turk (he is listed at 2.11 meters) worked. The 19-year-old may have had another growth spurt and is now a real 7-footer. With his mobility and skillset, that’s not to be underestimated, just think of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Now Smith won’t be a second Giannis, but the Big Man shouldn’t be written off after 60 mixed games. Houston isn’t a good place for him, and unfortunately that’s not going to change anytime soon. Sengun has already made his mark and is the best player in Houston and then there is still the chance of drawing Victor Wembanyama in just over three months if the Rockets get lucky in the lottery.

Smith and the Rockets, that wasn’t a good partnership. A change of scenery would do well, but that’s not realistic at the moment.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons), C, 13th pick
• Tari Eason (Houston Rockets), F, 17. Pick
• A.J. Griffin (Atlanta Hawks), F, 16. Pick
• Jaden Ivey (Detroit Pistons), G, 5. Pick
• Jeremy Sochan (San Antonio Spurs), F, 10. Pick
• Jabari Smith Jr. (Houston Rockets), F/C, 3. Pick
• Mark Williams (Charlotte Hornets), C, 15. Pick

A shoutout at this point goes to Mark Williams, who finally took the starting role in Charlotte after Mason Plumlee’s trade to the Clippers. Since starting, the ex-Dukie has averaged 12 points and 10 rebounds. In addition, the Hornets are even a serious defensive team when Williams plays (D rating: 110).

With a wingspan of 2.31 meters and a standing reach of 2.97 (!!) meters, Williams has all the tools for a good basket protector and also showed approaches on the perimeter like here against Trae Young. We want to see more of the boy! Now for the top 5…

Platz 5: KEEGAN MURRAY (Sacramento Kings), F, 4. Pick

Last placement: 5

The No. 4 pick might fly a little under the radar, but the forward fits like a glove into the Kings’ team. He doesn’t really need the ball, but he can attack closeouts and is a reliable three-point shooter. After Kevin Huerter, Murray shoots the most distance in Sacramento (6.0) and hits it better than any other rookie or player in the Kings (41.4 percent). In 15 games so far he has hit at least four threes, only six times did the forward remain without a sense of achievement from outside.

Murray delivers exactly what the Californians expected from this pick. For example, they decided against a Jaden Ivey, who might have more upside to offer, and drafted a player who, at 22, is immediately NBA-ready and a key complement on the wing.

Platz 4: JALEN WILLIAMS (Oklahoma City Thunder), F, 12. Pick

Last placement: 4

Who knows how long Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be missing from the Thunder, but if OKC is to have any chance of making the play-in, then Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams need to take on more responsibility. Against Sacramento, the combo guard showed at least 27 points and 8 assists that he could do more. In general it’s loud Cleaning the Glass OKC only with a net rating of -1 if Williams is alone (i.e. without SGA or Giddey) on the field.

This is a strong stat for the rookie and shows their versatility. He works as a slasher alongside the two stars, but can also lead a useful offense. Therein lies its value, much like Murray’s. Williams isn’t a first choice, but he can adapt and always finds ways to get easy points through good fundamentals. The fact that he can create his middle-distance shot himself at any time is an important bonus. A rate of 38 percent is not great, but the litter itself looks very clean. He should improve here over the years.

Platz 3: BENNEDICT MATHURIN (Indiana Pacers), F, 6. Pick

Last placement: 2

Although Mathurin slips in our ranking, there is little reason to worry. The three-pointer has been looking better lately (yes, the rate remains devastating), but since the Canadian hit 38 percent in college downtown, it was probably just a cold streak. Instead, the forward attacked more again, especially in transition, which makes him valuable. If you combine the two, Mathurin is a damn good NBA player.

Just imagine what Mathurin will look like when he is 23, 24, 25 years old. He’s got the power, he’s got the shot, now it’s time to learn the nuances of the NBA and get a better feel for the game. Too often the crowbar is pulled out, there are still too many bad throws with little hope of success. We remain optimistic, however, as Mathurin also plays alongside Tyrese Haliburton. He has become one of the best floor generals in the NBA and will make sure Mathurin gets the right throws.

Platz 2: WALKER KESSLER (Utah Jazz), C, 22. Pick

Last placement: 3

Since the beginning of the new calendar year, Kessler has been the best rookie in this class and he could possibly close the race for the award again. It’s absolutely amazing that the center continues to deliver as the playing time increases. His argument for Rookie of the Year is that no other newcomer has such a massive impact on the game, which is why Advanced Stats continue to love him and see him as the best rookie.

Already, Kessler is one of the best protectors of the ring, as this stat from analytics guru Seth Partnow shows (sorry, Moe Wagner). The Jazz not only milked the Minnesota Timberwolves completely, but also found their center of the future in the same transaction, which is significantly cheaper and younger than a certain Rudy Gobert. Was that foreseeable?

Probably not, but Kessler was no stranger, having played alongside Jabari Smith Jr. in college, where he also excelled as an elite shot blocker. We quote from our draft profile: “7.1 blocks per 40 minutes is unheard of, so the center has the best block rate in 14 years. Even Anthony Davis, who once cleared everything for Kentucky, couldn’t come up with such numbers. Kessler reminds me a bit of Roy Hibbert, who also knew how to keep his arms vertical when an opponent came towards him.” In addition, Kessler almost never gets into foul problems, but has ten games with at least 4 blocks.

Platz 1: PAOLO BANCHERO (Orlando Magic), F, 1. Pick

Last placement: 1

There’s no denying that Banchero has slipped, at least in raw numbers. Rockets fans like to point out that the Magic forward’s odds are similar to Smith Jr.’s lately, but that’s only half the story. Banchero does not act efficiently, but continues to collect a lot of points at the free-throw line and can hardly be replaced by Orlando.

The selection of litters is partly still too ambitious, nothing has worked from outside in the last few weeks. But what clearly sets him apart from Smith is his excellent passing game and ability to lead an offense. It’s still bumpy at times, but it’s no coincidence that Orlando’s offense falters when he and Franz Wagner are off the field — even as the Magic regain more playmaking alternatives with Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz.

Ultimately, however, Banchero is still the clear favorite for the award. A lot would have to happen for Kessler to surpass the Magic Star.