Goalkeepers take more penalties than ever before and the curse of the eighth penalty kick: what is it with those eleven meters? | World Cup Qatar 2022

17 kicked eleven meters in regular playing time at the World Cup. 11 went in. Whoever stands behind a ball on the spot in Qatar has a 65 percent chance of hitting the target. It’s never been different. In 2018, the chance of scoring from eleven meters was a lot higher. Of the 29 penalties awarded at the World Cup in Russia, 22 went in, which means a success rate of 76 percent.

It has apparently become more difficult to kick in a penalty in four years. Analysts at home and abroad had already noticed this. “There is so much pressure. You have to score, otherwise you’re screwed. It is noticeable that more and more players go casually to the ball and take penalties weakly. In the past, a penalty kick had to be shot hard and then you saw what happened,” outlines ex-pro and BBC analyst Rio Ferdinand.

Weak penalties, Spain and Japan grossed them out during their penalty shootouts in the eighth finals, the Netherlands and Brazil also missed twice yesterday. If we include the penalty series, the success ratio for eleven meters at this World Cup does not get much better. In that case we end up with 49 penalty kicks taken. 30 went in, 19 times it went wrong. It goes from a 65 percent chance of scoring to 61 percent. Swallow.

It is logical that the success rate drops when we take into account the penalties from penalty shootouts. The pressure in a penalty thriller is even greater. But here again the constant: in Qatar it is worse than at the previous World Cup. In Russia, 26 of the 39 penalties from penalty shootouts went in, in Qatar this was only possible with 7 of the 33 taken from eleven meters (see table).

There is the pressure, but the goalkeepers also play their part in the penalty figures. It is true that goalkeepers stop more eleven meters at this World Cup – regardless of whether it is in regular time or in a penalty shootout. The goalkeepers have already taken 14 of the 49 penalties taken at this World Cup. 28 percent of the eleven meters are therefore whipped out of goal. According to data agency Opta, this was usually only 17 percent at previous World Cups.

If we take a closer look at the penalty series themselves, then some nice statistics stand out. Qatar is already the joint record holder among the World Cups with four penalty shoot-outs in the knockout phase. There were also four in Russia four years ago. The great penalty heroes then – just like now – were the Croats.

Since penalty shoot-outs have been used at the World Cup (1982), only Germany and Croatia have presented a perfect report among the countries that played in multiple penalty shoot-outs. Germany scored 4 out of 4. Croatia is at the same figures thanks to Qatar 2022. In 2018, Denmark and Russia went for the axe, in Qatar they grabbed the scalp of Japan and Brazil.

So Neymar and co could have known yesterday. Just like the Netherlands, because Argentina also has a reputation. The Argentines are historically the best penalty takers after Croatia and Germany. They won 5 of their 6 penalty shootouts. The fact that Argentina and Croatia will face each other in the semi-finals can only make it more interesting in the event of penalties.

Set it up soon Morocco-Portugal comes to eleven meters again, then Yassine Bounou is the man to keep an eye on. The Sevilla goalkeeper stopped three penalties from the Spaniards in the round of 16, equaling the record of three stopped eleven meters in one penalty shootout by Ricardo (Portugal in 2006), Danijel Subasic (Croatia in 2018) and Dominic Livakovic (Croatia in 2022).

Subasic also stopped a fourth eleven meter in a second penalty shootout at the World Cup in Russia. Just like Livakovic took his fourth of the tournament against Brazil yesterday. That is precisely the challenge for Bounou. If he takes another one in a new thriller, the Moroccan will enter the history books alongside Subasic and Livakovic as ‘the best penalty taker in penalty shootouts at a World Cup’.

Finally, forget the myth that the team that starts a penalty shootout first usually wins. The statistics prove that it really is fifty-fifty. More importantly, each team’s fourth penalty is the hardest to score. In addition, the eighth penalty in total – the fourth penalty of the second team – is the most difficult of all, according to Opta. Only 61 percent of all eighth penalties in World Cup penalty shootouts ended up against the ropes. All other turns score better.

The eighth penalty has already been of decisive importance at this World Cup. In Brazil-Croatia, Marquinhos missed the eighth, Brazil was allowed to pack. In Argentina-Netherlands, Enzo Fernandez missed, he was also the eighth player whose turn it was in the penalty shootout. It was thanks to previous misses by Van Dijk and Berghuis that Argentina survived. In Croatia-Japan, the eighth did go in: Pasalic scored and Croatia pushed through.