FIFA published its ranking of nations on Thursday. Despite its success at the World Cup, Argentina is not first. Maxifoot takes stock of the method of calculating a ranking that is often debated.
Argentina is world champion
Less than a week after the end of the 2022 World Cup, FIFA published an update of its ranking of nations on Thursday. A ranking still dominated by Brazil despite its elimination in the quarter-finals. The Seleao is just ahead of Argentina, world champion, who progresses by one place after his coronation in Qatar.
On the third step of the podium, we find France. Unhappy finalists of the World Cup, the Blues gain a position. As a result, Belgium is thrown out of the top three and drops to 4th place. England (5th), the Netherlands (6th), Croatia (7th), Italy (8th), Portugal (9th) and Spain (10th) complete the Top 10.
Morocco ahead of Germany
Surprise semi-finalist of the World Cup in Qatar, Morocco climbed to 11th place and achieved the best progress of the year 2022 by having collected 142 points over the last 12 months. Best African representatives ahead of Senegal (19th) and Tunisia (30th), the Atlas Lions are now ahead of nations like Switzerland, the United States and Germany, only 14th.
As with each publication, the FIFA ranking is the subject of many discussions. But how is it really calculated? Introduced in August 1993, this ranking has undergone three revisions to its method of calculation, the last dating back to August 2018. According to the international body, this new method offers all nations the same chances of progress and gives even less weight to the friendly matches.
How are the points calculated?
The formula used by FIFA to determine the points won or lost after a match is based on several criteria. First there is the importance of the match (I), score of 5 60 depending on the competition*. Then comes the result of the match (R): 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a loss (0.75 in the event of a victory and 0.5 in the event of a loss on penalties). And finally the expected result of the match (Ra), which is calculated taking into account in particular the difference in points between the two teams. The formula is thus presented in the following form: Total points = the number of points before the match + I x (R – Ra).
In an example given by FIFA, team A (1,300 points) faces team B (1,500 points) in a qualifying match for a continental competition of a confederation, rated 25 for the importance of the match (I ). Without going into the details of the calculation, we note that a victory for team A earns it 17 points and causes team B to lose as many. earns only 7 points and deducts 7 from team A. Similarly, team A is favored in the event of a draw (+ 5 points against – 5 for team B). Note that a nation does not lose points after a defeat in a direct elimination match in a final competition.
Morocco is catching up, Belgium is falling slowly
As you will have understood, a less well-classed team can progress more quickly in the event of good performance. Semi-finalist in Qatar, Morocco has thus obtained 108.85 points since the last ranking dating from October, where it occupied 22nd place. This is more than Argentina (+ 64.50 points) and France (+ 63.61 points), the two finalists of the World Cup. If Morocco has not yet joined the Top 10 despite its good World Cup, it is mainly because it has to catch up. In August 2018, when the new calculation was implemented, the Atlas Lions were only 46th.
Another case often subject to discussion: Belgium. For a long time first in the ranking despite its absence of a trophy, it is certainly still well placed in 4th place but is falling slowly with this new method of calculation. Eliminated in the group stage of the World Cup, the Belgians have 35.41 points less compared to the last classification. Worse, they have lost 51.03 points in one year and post their worst total since December 2020 (1,780 points against 1,781.3 today). Meanwhile, England (+45.72 pts), the Netherlands (+46.41 pts), Croatia (+81.98 pts) and Portugal (+25.98 pts) took advantage of the Mondial to catch up some of their delay. The weight of a nation’s history will always weigh in a ranking launched in 1993, just like the old methods of calculation which are not always very fair, but an evolution is well under way.
The TOP 10 of the FIFA rankings (December 2022)
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The importance of a match is noted as follows:
– 5 for a friendly match played outside the windows of the international match calendar.
– 10 for a friendly match played in a window of the international match calendar.
– 15 for a Nations League group match.
– 25 for a classification match and final of the League of Nations.
– 25 for a qualifying match for the continental competition of a confederation or the final competition of the World Cup.
– 35 for a continental competition match of a confederation up to the round of 16 (included).
– 40 for a continental competition match of a confederation counting from the quarter-finals; all Confederations Cup matches.
– 50 for a World Cup final competition match up to the round of 16 (included).
