Two posters in the 1/8th finals are already known: the Netherlands will meet the US, England will take on Senegal. France, Brazil and Portugal are also sure of their ticket for the next round. Who has to do what to continue?
Group A
- The Netherlands go through as group winner, Senegal reaches the 1/8th finals as second.
- Ecuador and Qatar are eliminated.
Group B
- England wins group B and wins together with the United States of 1/8e finals.
- Iran and Wales are out.
Group C
- Poland advances to the next round if it wins or draws against Argentina. If it loses, it can only continue – based on goal difference or goals scored – if Saudi Arabia does not win.
- Argentina sure to keep winning. In case of a draw, Messi and co remain in Qatar if Saudi Arabia – Mexico is a draw or if Mexico wins by less than 3 goals.
- Saudi Arabia is placed if it wins against Mexico. In case of a draw, it must count on a win by Poland or a defeat by Poland with a difference of 3 goals or more.
- Mexico is no longer in his own hands, but must win anyway. If it wins against Saudi Arabia, it will have to count on a Polish victory to be sure. In all other cases, it must hope for a better goal difference than either Poland or Argentina after a win.
Group D
- France has already qualified for the 1/8th finals and will certainly win the group if it does not lose to Tunisia.
- Australia definitely qualifies for the next round with a win against Denmark. If it draws against the Danes, Tunisia cannot win against France.
- Denmark will only advance to the next round if it wins against Australia and Tunisia cannot beat France by a larger margin.
- Tunisia know where it stands: only a win against France offers a place in the last 16. The condition is also that Australia-Denmark is a draw or that Denmark beats Australia by a smaller margin than Tunisia beats France.
Group E
- Spain is always there in the eighth finals if it does not lose to Japan. Even with a loss, it can still continue if…
- Costa Rica – Germany is a draw.
- Spain has a better goal difference than Germany after a German victory or has scored more goals with an equal goal difference.
- Japan is certain if it wins against Spain. In case of a draw, it has to count…
- … to a draw between Costa Rica and Germany.
- … on a victory by Germany with one goal difference and Japan scores as many or more goals than Germany on the final match day
- Costa Rica sure to push through with a win against Germany. If it draws, it goes through if Japan loses or if Spain loses by 14 (!) goals difference.
- Germany must win against Costa Rica anyway, if it still wants to have a chance and even then Germany’s future depends on the result between Japan and Spain:
- If Japan loses to Spain, Germany is through with a win.
- If Japan draws, Germany must win by 2 goals against Costa Rica or score more goals than Japan on the final day.
- If Japan wins, Germany must make up 8 goals against Spain.
Group F
- Croatia is always certain with a win or a draw against Belgium. Even in the event of a defeat, the Croatians still have a chance of progressing to the next round, if they lose with less or the same number of goals as Morocco against Canada.
- Morocco will make its fans happy with a ticket to the 1/8th finals if it doesn’t lose to Canada or if Croatia wins to Belgium. In the event of a defeat, it must have a better goal difference than Croatia or Belgium.
- Belgium push through
- With a win against Croatia.
- With a draw against Croatia, provided Canada beat Morocco by 4 goals or more. Then Belgium and Morocco both finish with 4 points, but Belgium’s goal difference (-1) is better than that of Morocco.
- With a draw against Croatia, provided that Canada beats Morocco by 3 goals and Belgium scores 2 goals more than Morocco on the final day. Then the goal difference of Belgium and Morocco is equal, but Belgium has scored more goals.
- Canada is disabled anyway.
Group G
- Brazil already has his ticket for the 1/8th finals.
- Switzerland is only certain if it beats Serbia. In the event of a draw, Cameroon may not win against Brazil or it will be counted with the goal difference and goal scored.
- Cameroon the group survives if it wins against Brazil itself and Switzerland does not win against Serbia. In any case, calculations will be involved, because in each of those scenarios (draw or win Serbia) the goal difference or the goals scored will be decisive.
- Serbia push through if it beats Switzerland and Cameroon doesn’t beat Brazil. If Cameroon wins against Brazil, Serbia must win against Switzerland by more goals than Cameroon against Brazil.
Group H
- Portugal is, just like Brazil and France, already qualified for the 1/8th finals.
- Ghana will accompany Portugal to the next round if they beat Uruguay. With a draw, Ghana is also certain if South Korea does not beat Portugal. In the other case, the goal difference and so on comes up.
- Uruguay is only 100 percent sure if it wins against Ghana and Portugal doesn’t lose against South Korea. If South Korea wins, Uruguay must win against Ghana by at least the same number of goals.
- South Korea stands with its back against the wall: it must win against Portugal and Ghana cannot beat Uruguay. Even then it will have to have a better goal difference than Ghana or Uruguay.
In case of a possible tie between two or more countries in a group, the scenarios are still endless in terms of goal difference, number of goals or fair play points. Then we chose the most likely scenarios.
Teams are ranked based on these criteria:
- Points achieved in all group matches
- Goal difference achieved in all group matches
- Number of goals scored in all group matches
- Points scored in head-to-head results
- Goal difference in head-to-head results (with more than 2 teams with the same number of points)
- Number of goals scored in head-to-head results (with more than 2 teams with the same number of points)
- Fair Play Points in all group matches
Yellow card: -1 point
Red after 2 yellow cards: -3 points
Direct red card: -4 points
Yellow card and direct red card: -5 points - Draw
