Understanding the Shiny probability for a Pokémon in Pokémon Go isn’t easy. That’s in large part because the game’s makers at Niantic never clearly communicate how those shiny odds are really defined. Instead, the community picks out these probabilities itself based on field tests and data analysis.
For example, encountering a Shiny in the wild has a chance of around 1 in 500 for a non-rare Pokemon, around 1 in 64 for a rare Mon. The chance for Tier 5 legendary raid bosses is around 1 in 20, while at less rare Tier 3 and Tier 1 pocket monsters is 1 in 64. The shiny chance for hatched Pokémon is also 1 in 64, while the shiny chance for Community Day Pokémon is probably an incredible 1 in 20.
The dataminers from Pokeminers have found an interesting indication in the data for Pokémon Go APK 0.249 that the shiny chance for Pokémon from reward encounters such as from the Battle League, from all research (Field, Special, Timed, Limited) as well as may also have been detached from the Research Breakthrough from the other Shiny Opportunities mentioned above. What does that mean?
More shinys from reward encounters possible?
As the People from Pokeminers on September 25, 2022 a Shiny Chance can now be set encounter-based by the PoGo developers. An example: A Zurrokex that you can get as a reward from Battle League will then (if the new rules apply) have a different shiny chance than a Zurrokex that you meet in the wild. In the best case, a higher one, depending on whether this reward encounter Pokémon is found more often or less frequently in the wild.
Officials do not know whether this new type of Shiny Chance distribution is already active in the game. However, the makers of Pokémon Go have announced that the Research breakthrough in October 2022 lets Ninjatom collect as Shiny in game for the first time. Given that Ninjatom is virtually never encountered in the wild, an increased Shiny chance for the encounter after opening a Research Breakthrough Crate would make sense.
We will probably only see that when the first trainers open their boxes from October 1, 2022 from 10:00 p.m. and then Shiny Ninjatom is reported conspicuously often. By the way, according to Niantics information, in the meantime APK 0.249.2 (and the iOS equivalent) Available for download in stores – this version is intended to fix login and battle league issues. So would mean that the encounter-based shiny chances might already be activated.
