Rafa Nadal returns to stalk number 1. Zverev, who could not play anything on the North American tour; and Medvedev, who defends many points, are his main rivals for the title of the world ranking. On August 22, the first date on which Nadal could be number 1 for the first time since 2020.
Rafael Nadal He will be number 1 in 2022. Sooner or later, the man from Manaco, unless he misses several Masters 1000 and the US Open, will take advantage of his particular condition of not defending points until the end of the year. With 6,165 points after Wimbledon, the Spaniard defends 545 in the rest of the season. Medvedev, with 7,775, defends 4,600 in the remainder of the year; and Zverev, with 6,850, defends 3,790.
The calendar prior to the US Open is quite defined for the three of them, who will be the ones who will really fight for number 1 at the end of the year; fight you could join Carlos Alcaraz in case he does very well in the rest of the year, as he barely defends a few hundred points from the last months of 2021. Nadal will only be in Canada y New York; Medvedev will be in Los Cabos, Canada, Cincinnati y New York; and Zverev, pending his recovery, points out that he will arrive, if he does, directly to the US Open. Canada is completely out of the question for him, and Cincinnati practically too.
When can Rafa Nadal be number 1?
Knowing the calendars of Nadal and Medvedev, who are going to fight for number 1 in the short term, we can ensure that the first date with mathematical options for Nadal to be number 1 is the August 22, at the end of the Cincinnati Masters 1000 that Nadal, a priori, will not play. To take place on that date, Nadal would have to win in Canada, and Medvedev not add more than 355 points between Los Cabos (ATP 250), Montreal (ATP 1000) and Cincinnati (ATP 1000). This low score seems unrealistic for a player like Medvedev, who is assumed to be the favorite to win each of those three tournaments.
September on the horizon
The most likely date to see Rafa Nadal as number 1 again is the September 12, at the end of the US Open. Only a perfect summer for Medvedev and a bad summer for Nadal would prevent the Spaniard from returning to the throne on this date. If, for example, Nadal wins the US Open, Medvedev would need to win Los Cabos, Montreal, Cincinnati, and reach the semifinals in New York, even if Nadal didn’t even play in Canada.
The current difference between the two is 1,610 points. When Medvedev, who defends 500 points in the week he plays Los Cabos, plays the Mexican tournament, the distance will be reduced between 250 and 500 points. In Canada, Nadal defends 500 and Medvedev 1000; in Cincinnati, Medvedev defends 360 and Nadal 0; and at the US Open, Medvedev defends 2,000 and Nadal 0. Nadal will play for 3,000 points defending 500 on this tour and Medvedev for 4,250 defending 3,860.
If all goes according to plan, and Zverev doesn’t play any tournaments before the US Open (or Winston-Salem), Rafa Nadal will be number 2 in the world on August 22 if he manages to reach the quarterfinals in Montreal.
