Brittney Griner’s trial for allegedly bringing hash oil to Russia is scheduled to begin on Friday. At that point, it will have been 134 days since the WNBA star was detained while trying to enter the country through a Moscow-area airport. She faces 10 years in prison if she is convicted. But even before the trial begins, US experts and officials say Griner will be the subject of a show trial and that a guilty verdict is almost a certainty. The whole exercise, they say, is a negotiating ploy to push the Biden administration into negotiating for her freedom.
“It’s a foregone conclusion and the trial is to defend the state and confirm the power of the state,” says William Pomeranz, acting director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington and an expert on Russian law. “Justice is not the immediate problem.”
So what can people expect for Griner in the coming weeks and maybe months? ESPN spoke with several experts about the case.
What will happen on Friday?
“A trial there is not a trial in the American sense — opening statements, jury selection, ‘call your first witness’ — none of that,” says Tom Firestone, former resident legal counsel at the US Embassy. in Moscow, and currently a partner at Stroock & Stroock & Lavan.
For the most part, the “trial” will be a judge reading the prosecutor’s case file into the record. At some point, prosecutors will call witnesses, and often the judge will lead the questioning. Sometimes prosecutors sit there “like potted plants,” one expert said.
Griner, like most of the defendants, is expected to spend his trial in a cage with steel bars. There is no jury (Russia uses juries only for the most serious crimes), and there are usually no surprises in court.
“It will just be a very dry recitation of the facts,” says Pomeranz. “There’s not going to be a Perry Mason moment.”
Technically, Griner’s trial will be public, but not in the sense that Americans understand.
“They let a couple of people in to watch, but I wouldn’t call it a public trial,” says Pomeranz. “I’m sure some state media will be able to get in just to get some initial photos of the proceedings, but I assure you they won’t let Western media in.”
Firestone says that sometimes Russian courts will say a trial is open, but then turn away anyone not directly connected to the case. His family won’t be there. The sources said US embassy officials are expected to attend the trial in an attempt to demonstrate the government’s commitment to their case.
What can the defense do?
Griner has as good a legal team as he probably could in Russia, but that doesn’t change his odds in court: 99% of Russian criminal cases end in a conviction, and that’s without the political factors in his case.
“It’s a fantasy for average Russians. It’s a double fantasy for someone in this kind of political case,” says Pomeranz.
There’s a big crossroads for defendants, Firestone says: During the investigative phase, the defense can find exculpatory evidence and send it to prosecutors, but prosecutors don’t have to put it on the record.
“And then you can try to file it in court and the judge won’t consider it because it wasn’t in the case file,” he says.
“That is the Russian criminal justice system in a nutshell,” says Pomeranz.
The defense has the right to object during testimony, but rarely does and is rarely successful.
What is the evidence against Griner?
No one knows yet besides the prosecution. Maybe they have the information on her and there is definitive proof that he did exactly what he is accused of doing. Perhaps there will be fabricated or misleading evidence; there is a well-established history of that by Russian prosecutors.
Witnesses have been known to turn up describing incriminating conversations and scenes. But experts say none of that matters: Evidence will be presented, the judge will accept it, and she is likely to be convicted as a result.
What is your best strategy?
It may not be what you expect.
“Traditionally, the best defense is to admit your guilt and expect to receive a lesser sentence,” says Pomeranz. “There aren’t many examples of people putting up strong defenses and being acquitted.”
In fact, he says, Russian judges tend to be forced out of office if they acquit too many defendants.
In addition, experts say, Russia is likely to require Griner to admit guilt as part of any deal to free her. A plea of ”not guilty” and a strong defense could lead the Russian authorities to make your life more miserable in the meantime.
Sources close to Griner declined to say how he intends to plead, but experts say that, with no chance of acquittal, it would make strategic sense to plead guilty now. That could cause headaches for the US State Department and the White House, but it could make Griner’s life more bearable and a deal to return home more likely.
How long will the trial last?
Once the trial begins, you can move in fits and starts. Firestone says that sometimes a judge adjourns for several days for no apparent reason. Sometimes, he says, court starts for the day and a witness doesn’t show up “and the judge adjourns for a couple of weeks.”
So while Griner’s case may seem simple — either he had hash oil vape cartridges or he didn’t — it could take weeks or months to conclude the trial.
“This one is not easy because they need to convince everyone that she is guilty and that they have evidence against her. So this is not a normal case,” says Pomeranz. “I hope there’s a lot of evidence that needs to be read into the record and we’ll just have to see what it is.”
If it’s a foregone conclusion, why have the trial?
“It’s a negotiating strategy,” says Danielle Gilbert, an assistant professor of military and strategic studies at the US Air Force Academy.
“The trial — and the threat of a long sentence — gives the Russians more leverage in the negotiation,” he says.
Convicting and sentencing Griner is intended to encourage his supporters to pressure the White House to make a deal that is beneficial to Russia. And it works only if Russia treats the proceedings as legitimate.
“Hostage diplomacy relies on the pretense of law to feign legitimate process,” says Gilbert. “The Russian government relies on Americans’ own respect for the rule of law to mask their intention to use Griner as leverage.”
Pomeranz agrees.
“Unfortunately,” he says, “as soon as Griner is released, the Russians will try to find someone else and put them in the same position and start over with a different set of conditions.”
