Thursday, Jan 20, 2022. 5:01 PM
SPECIAL COLLABORATION
Presentation Saturday of the first two division finals in the NFL. I invite you to read my analysis of these two parts which will be presented on RDS.
The Bengals will have their hands full against the healthy Titans (4:30 p.m. on RDS)
It’s going to be fun to watch the Titans come on with the possible return of running back Derrick Henry adding to the intrigue of this game.
The Titans have arguably never been healthier than they are now. They can count on Henry in the backfield and wide receivers Julio Jones and AJ Brown. These three players have only played 120 games together during the entire campaign. And when this trio was together, the Titans averaged 7 yards per play. To really capture the weight and potential of the presence of these three players, San Francisco posted the best result at the level of this statistic with 6.1 yards. per game.
Additionally, the Titans will be on the same offensive line for a third straight week, which should allow for more cohesive ground play and protection. It’s like everything falls into place for the Titans. Also, under coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 8-0 when his club enjoys nine or more days of preparation. The club will therefore be rested and well prepared. They are likely to reserve surprises for the Bengals.
It’s a bit of a cliché, but for the Titans it will be important to win trench warfare with the offensive line, ground game and physical play. Tennessee will be looking to win on possession time. Moreover, the club ranks second behind the Packers for the time of possession with 32:39 minutes per game. Having the ball allows the Titans to control the pace and tempo of the game. Besides, isn’t the best weapon to keep Joe Burrow as long as possible on the sidelines?
Ryan Tannehill is excellent at making fake ground plays that are followed by a pass. So there is reason to wonder if the Bengals defense can hold up. We must not forget that the Bengals lost two tackles last weekend against the Raiders who will not be in uniform on Saturday. And top quarterback fighter Trey Hendrickson is a question mark. He’s probably going to play, but he still suffered a concussion. His presence really makes a difference. When he was on the court against Vegas, Derek Carr was pressured on average in 43% of plays, but that average dropped to 9% when he left the game. If he couldn’t face the Bengals, that would be a game changer.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is very good. He throws the ball often, but in return, he is also the quarterback who has suffered the most sacks. The question is whether the Bengals will be able to protect him adequately. Cincinnati did it against the Raiders by sprinkling in a bit of Joe Mixon and a bit of running game. It will be essential for the Bengals to have a better balance against the Titans, who have a tough defense.
The two teams haven’t faced each other this season, but when they met last year, the Titans had a pretty spectacular 218 rushing yards on 29 carries, but they were still down 31-20. Burrow had had a good game for the Bengals especially on third down and in the pay zone. Moreover, he had not been sack victim and he had not made mistakes. He had only been hit twice. That means he had never been disturbed. He should expect it to be different on Saturday.
I don’t think Burrow is as comfortable this time around. The Titans were 30th with 19 quarterback sacks last year while this season they had 43 to finish 10th. It’s not the same game at all.
The demons of Aaron Rodgers (8:15 p.m. on RDS)
There will be a lot of pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Green Bay Packers.
Rodgers may have 13-win seasons, but if we don’t reach the Super Bowl, that doesn’t mean anything. The Packers quarterback has demons to hunt against the Niners, who he is 0-3 in the playoffs against. Overall his playoff record is 11-9 and since winning the Super Bowl in 2010, his playoff record is 7-8.
We may appreciate Rodgers during the season, his playoff statistics are not extraordinary. I know he’s not the only one responsible for this situation, but I think it puts things into perspective.
The last time these two clubs met was in San Francisco a few years ago, the Niners had amassed 285 yards on the ground and completely outscored the Packers to win 37-20.
The 49ers are a team that wants to run with a super dynamic and complex ground game at the same time. This team is attacking the whole field in every way and it’s really not relaxing to face this formation. If the Packers can’t stop the 49ers’ running game, they’ll have to forget about the win. You have to limit the damage and when I take a look at the defensive statistics, there is nothing encouraging. They were 29th against the rush with an average of 4.7 yards allowed, but since Week 12, that average has climbed to 5.3 yards, which ranks them last in the NFL. So you can count on the Niners to exploit the land game.
Ever since Week 12, the Packers are ranked 24th defensively in third-down play and 29th in the pay zone. It’s no good heading into a game against the 49ers looking to run. What’s more, the Niners are number one in the paying zone. They manage to capitalize. If the defense doesn’t do the job, it’s going to be difficult. There are quite a few question marks on the Green Bay side.
But all is not perfect at the 49ers. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is a good player, but he has this label that sticks to his skin. That is to say that of having the bad habit of being intercepted in a key moment or of missing a pass receiver who is completely clear in the deep zones. We saw it against the Cowboys in the last game. It is for this reason that the ground game is essential for San Francisco.
Green Bay will have to make sure they have a good balance in attack. It’s almost 50-50 in passing and running. We let ourselves be blinded by Rodgers’ play, but the run will have to be effective against a defensive front like the 49ers, who have been number one since Week 12 to create pressure. For the show and for the Niners, it is to be hoped that Nick Bosa, victim of a concussion, is in the game. Still, San Francisco had five sacks after leaving against the Cowboys.
Running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dilon will need to be successful for Green Bay. Earlier in the season, the Packers beat the 49ers and they had 100 yards on 25 carries, which was pretty good balance-wise. San Francisco’s defensive line is strong and the Cowboys have been victimized in the past few days with five sacks. They had also hit Dak Prescott 14 times. The previous week, this line also had five sacks against Matthew Stafford, who had been hit 13 times. That means the Niners defense is on a solid streak.
*words collected by Robert Latendresse
