Team USA beat the Dominican Republic 3-1 early Wednesday morning to keep their medal hopes alive. They now face a South Korean team they already beat earlier in the tournament.
A win would take them to the gold medal game against Japan, while a loss would put them in contention for bronze against the Dominican Republic.
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The Americans were led offensively by Red Sox prospect Triston Casas and former major league player Tyler Austin.
The first, a corner infielder who is a consensus Top 100 prospect at MLB Pipeline, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, helped Team USA advance to victory over the Dominicans with a two-run homerun in the first heat. It was his third homerun of the tournament in just 16 batting appearances, and the left-hander also has two walks and just three strikeouts.
Austin has spent part of four seasons in majors with the Yankees, Twins, Giants and Brewers, and has plied his trade in Japan for the past two seasons with the Yokohama BayStars in the NPB. His solo shot Wednesday morning arrived in his yard and gave the Americans a 3-0 lead. Austin hits an impressive .412 / .444 / .941 in 17 at-bat with a pair of homers.
Team USA starting pitcher is unknown as of this writing, but manager Mike Scioscia could go a few ways. Scioscia have used four different starting pitchers in the team’s four games so far, namely Joe Ryan, Nick Martinez, Shane Baz and Scott Kazmir.
Baz and Kazmir started most recently, so they went out, likely leaving the decision to Ryan or Martinez. Ryan started the opener against Israel and had six innings, allowing one run on five hits with five strikeouts and zero walks. Martinez would rest regularly after mowing down those same South Koreans just four days ago. The former Texas Ranger struck out nine strikes in five innings, allowing one run on four goes without a walk.
It would be tempting to go with Martinez given his recent success against South Korea, but Scioscia might want to give the hitters a more unfamiliar look, which would mean Baz, the Tampa Bay Rays’ top prospect.
Whoever Scioscia chooses will have to navigate a South Korean formation with a few big hitters at their disposal. The South Koreans actually have some really impressive offensive stats for the tournament as a whole, as the team hit a collective of .306 / .382 / .468.
Their offensive star is Hyun Soo Kim, who American fans may recall from spells with the Orioles and Phillies in 2016 and 2017. In 22 batting appearances, Kim had 10 hits, including two homers and a collective. 455 / .478 / .864 line.
Ji-hwan Oh, a 31-year-old 13-year-old KBO veteran, is another one for South Koreans to watch. He’s a base machine with a lifetime percentage of 0.349 base to accompany 118 home runs and 213 bases stolen during his career. He has two home runs and is so far reaching .250 / .429 .688 for the tournament.
As with Team USA, who South Korea is putting on the mound for this do or die game is unknown at the time of this writing. The Americans’ offense has been underwhelming, but Scioscia has pulled all the right strings with the pitching staff so far and the arms have stood apart from the late-game blast in the team’s only loss. against Japan.
Looking strictly at the stats of this small sample size, the advantage should probably go to South Korea, especially since the offensive presented some shattering stats overall.
But these statistics are a bit misleading. South Korea scored 25 points in the tournament, but 17 were scored in two games against Israel, which was by far the weakest team in the tournament. The other three games saw totals of 4, 2, and 2.
Having said that, Team USA has too many favorites to find any value in them, so I’ll go for the total instead. The Americans’ offense was underwhelming, but I see this game going the same way they did when they first met, with the USA team scratching up a few points and mostly controlling the South Korean offense. I like minus 8 to -115 and would bet -120.
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