The race for the MVP: shine in the fourth quarter, the mark of the greats

For several years now, Basket USA has been offering you its Top 5 candidates every Tuesday for the title of “Most Valuable Player”. This week, for the first MVP run of the season, we take a closer look at the most effective NBA players in the fourth quarters of the 21st century.

This is important when it comes to determining which ones are the most efficient in hot times since the recipients of the Maurice Podoloff trophy are historically well placed in this ranking, since the appearance of “play-by-play” (share by share) during the 1996/97 financial year.

And after ten games in 2020/21, we can thus realize that the best players of this start of the campaign are already monopolizing the first places in the ranking of the highest point averages, in the final quarter. Good to know: to be eligible for a full season, a player must have participated in 70% of his team’s matches.

The stainless LeBron James (6.4 points average in the fourth quarter) is for example in the Top 15 alongside CJ McCollum (8.0), Joel Embiid (8.0), Stephen Curry (7.4), Nikola Jokic (6.9) ) or Paul George (6.4). But the leader in this area is none other than Kevin Durant (9.7) who, despite an average collective record with the Nets, returned to an excellent level of play after his Achilles tendon rupture.

MVP rhymes with big endgame

If “KD” manages to keep up the pace, and keep his average of 9.7 points in the last quarter, it would be the third highest average in the history of “play-by-play”, behind the 10.0 units from Russell Westbrook (2016/17) and 9.8 units from Isaiah Thomas (2016/17), but ahead of 9.5 units from Kobe Bryant (2005/06). That year, Russell Westbrook was also voted MVP with the Thunder, scoring the first of his three average triple-doubles.

It is precisely interesting to observe that, since the 2000/01 financial year, the MVP is often part of the Top 5 and is almost always in the Top 10 of the best point averages in the fourth quarter.

In reality, the exceptions each time concern the doubles of Tim Duncan then Steve Nash. The interior of the Spurs, eminent member of the Texan collective, ranked 11th in 2001/02 and 33rd in 2002/03, while the point guard of the Suns, known above all for his qualities of passer, placed him 32nd in 2004/05 and 25th in 2005/06.

As for LeBron James, author of a superb start with the Lakers despite a shortened offseason, he still shines as much in the final act in 2020/21. Maybe even more than usual, in the sense that he rarely saves himself in order to be as efficient as possible to finish off tough and catchy opponents, in the last twelve minutes (cf. the clashes against Spurs, Grizzlies or Bulls).

« King in the Fourth »

Because if the sample of matches is still very low, the “King” continues to appear in the Top 20 for best point averages in the fourth quarter. A Top 20 that he has never left since arriving in the NBA in 2003, his worst ranking in the field being an 18th place, just obtained during his rookie season of 2003/04. With, as a result, its lowest average of career units at this level (5.0). With the exception of this campaign, the quadruple MVP has consistently been in the Top 10.

And LeBron James posted his highest points average in the last quarter (9.1 units) in fiscal 2007/08. That year, no one did better the former Cavaliers player, who also dominated the League in the field in 2008/09 (7.7 units) and 2009/10 (8.0 units) – for his first two MVP titles – then in 2014/15 (7.1 units). Also elected MVP in 2011/12 and 2012/13, the quadruple NBA champion had somewhat lowered his foot in Miami, where he was better surrounded than in Cleveland, with respectively 5.5 and 6.0 points average in the fourth quarter.

Since his arrival in Los Angeles, the “King” has found standards close to those he had among the Cavaliers, posting in the last act averages of 8.6 points in 2018/19 (leader of the League, if his 55 games disputed did not prevent him from being ineligible) and 7.7 points in 2019/20 (5th in the NBA).

The weight of years therefore does not seem to have an impact on LeBron James’ ability to weigh in during hot times. A factor that could potentially allow him to win a fifth MVP title in the coming months, if he continues his momentum with the Lakers, currently holders of the best record in the League.

For the moment, he is leading our first Top 5 in terms of his consistency, but the start of the season is particularly vague, and everything could change very quickly …

1 – LeBron James (Lakers)
With: 8 wins, 3 losses – 1st in the West.
Stats : 24.0 pts, 8.3 reb, 7.7 pds, 0.9 int, 0.4 ctr and 3.5 bp in 33 min.
Percentages: 49% on shots, 35% at 3-pts and 71% on throws.

2 – Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
With: 5 wins, 5 losses – 10th in the West.
Stats : 24.4 pts, 11.2 reb, 10.4 pds, 1.3 int, 0.5 ctr and 4.5 bp in 35 min.
Percentages: 59% on shots, 43% on 3-pts and 80% on throws.

3 – Joel Embiid (Sixers)
With: 7 wins, 4 losses – 3rd in the East.
Stats : 24.6 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.0 pds, 1.0 int, 1.7 ctr and 3.1 pdb in 31 min.
Percentages: 52% on shots, 43% on 3-pts and 84% on throws.

4 – Stephen Curry (Warriors)
With: 6 wins, 4 losses – 6th in the West.
Stats : 28.6 pts, 5.2 reb, 6.7 pds, 1.1 int, 0.2 ctr and 3.2 bp in 34 min.
Percentages: 43% on shots, 37% on 3-pts and 96% on throws.

5 – Paul George (Clippers)
With: 7 wins, 4 losses – 2nd in the West.
Stats : 25.0 pts, 6.3 reb, 5.4 pds, 1.5 int, 0.5 ctr and 4.0 bp in 35 min.
Percentages: 50% on shots, 51% on 3-pts and 92% on throws.

Mentions : Luka Doncic (Mavericks), Jayson Tatum (Celtics), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Jaylen Brown (Celtics), Kawhi Leonard (Clippers), Trae Young (Hawks), C.J. McCollum (Blazers), Kevin Durant (Nets), Julius Randle (Knicks), Bradley Beal (Wizards), Nikola Vucevic (Magic)…

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