It is actually a blind flight in which Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Prime Ministers are on the move. The effects of the easing at Christmas, the New Year’s Eve celebrations, will only really become apparent by the beginning of next week. The biggest unknown is also the virus mutant B.1.1.7, which has emerged in Great Britain and Ireland and also found in this country.
For Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU), however, so much is already clear today: “This soft lockdown with open schools, kindergartens and shopping opportunities is useless”.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, many more people die in Saxony than usual. In the third week of December, the number – based on the average for previous years – more than doubled. The saddest pictures of this second wave also come from Saxony: Stacked wooden coffins in crematoria – “Corona” or “Covid-19” is written on them with chalk.
The ritual that has been going on since mid-October is now repeated: Merkel warns internally with drastic words and ideas for tightening up are getting outside from CDU circles in order to put pressure on the prime ministers.
With regard to the case of Ireland, Merkel emphasizes: “The situation has changed”. That is why it will join forces again with the heads of government of the 16 countries on Tuesday, not January 25. Then the tricky question will be whether schools and daycare centers will remain largely closed for the first time in February.
And there are a number of other new ideas, even if the scope is very narrow, the economy should not collapse. One of them – a message from “Bild” clearly denied by Merkel in the CDU presidium – made people sit up and take notice: the possible suspension of bus and rail traffic.
An overview of what could be in store for Germany:
Buses and trains: It’s about fewer contacts in local public transport, says government spokesman Steffen Seibert. “What it doesn’t mean is: to stop local public transport.” In regional circles, a complete setting is described as absurd, especially since the socially weaker would be affected.
But all movement profiles show: people are more on the move than when they were first locked down in spring.
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In Hamburg, the number of passengers using public transport has fallen by around 50 percent. In spring 2020, however, around 70 percent fewer journeys were recorded than in the previous year. In Berlin the numbers are similar, according to the BVG there are still half as many people as before the pandemic. “In contrast to other federal states, the range of services in the HVV was almost completely maintained during the lockdown and in some cases even reinforced in order to be able to guarantee more distance between our passengers,” emphasizes the Hamburg transport association.
More trains and buses are an option to reduce contact. Even in Saxony, which is particularly badly affected, there is still an average capacity utilization of 40 percent. The goal given by virologists is a utilization of 25 percent. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) had unsuccessfully asked for more money from the federal government in one of the last advertisements in order to equalize school traffic with more buses. Additional personal limits for buses and trains are also being discussed.
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Contacts and protection: Further restrictions on contacts, especially in the private sector, are being discussed again. So far, there is no majority for curfews. But what worries the rulers is that many appeals are dying away. But a regulation or a law for a home office obligation, wherever possible, meets with resistance in country circles. That would take weeks to implement, time that does not exist in this most difficult (mutation) phase of the pandemic.
Since the baker, the nurse, the policeman or the racer who has to see a doctor cannot do without buses or trains, the Bavarian model of an FFP2 mask requirement in public transport and shops is on the negotiating table in order to reduce the risk of infection.
What is already becoming apparent: Gastronomy, leisure and cultural facilities, and possibly also retail, will remain closed until Easter.
Schools and daycare centers: There is little evidence of openings after January 31st – in individual federal states such as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania there are lessons for final classes, but the rule is distance lessons. In February, it will mainly depend on regional outbreaks where schools and daycare centers can gradually be reopened.
However, the virus mutation could even aggravate this situation again. “Shut down kindergartens completely, close schools”, suggested Saxony’s Prime Minister Kretschmer in the ZDF program “Maybrit Illner”. In order to even think about openings again, experts are calling for comprehensive rapid tests.
“The theory that children and schools do not play a major role has now largely been shelved in science,” the virologist Isabella Eckerle recently emphasized. HIn addition, analyzes show that virus mutations, which are up to 40 percent more contagious, could spread particularly strongly among children.
Border closures and operations: The borders should remain open according to the current status – it is the big difference to the spring lockdown. As a result, supply chains collapsed, companies had to close, the economy collapsed, and mobility fell sharply for that reason alone.
The scientist Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute speaks of a dangerous “ping-pong effect” if the numbers do not fall across Europe because Covid infections are brought in and then brought in again elsewhere. The mutations have made the situation here worse. She warns again and again: “Don’t stop too early, otherwise you will gamble away your success.”
Since border closings should be avoided, the SPD politician Karl Lauterbach brings plant closings into play. The President of the SPD Economic Forum, Michael Frenzel, warns urgently: “A total shutdown of the economy is absurd and completely impossible. That would be a disastrous panic measure. “
A glimmer of hope next to the start of the vaccination: The number of Covid-19 cases in the intensive care units is slowly falling. Currently around 5050 intensive care beds are occupied with Covid 19 patients, 3488 beds are still free. But with all the hectic crisis management – also from the point of view of SPD and CSU politicians – there is a lack of honest analysis of which measures have brought what and what not. Above all, the ministers of education will have to answer many questions with their dodging course in dealing with school lessons when analyzing errors.
Research Minister Anja Karliczek (CDU) should finally initiate investigations into the effect of the measures, says the SPD parliamentary group vice-president Bärbel Bas the “Spiegel”. “We need to know in more detail what the measures mean for the infection process and how they work.” He too said CSU MP Michael Kuffer that a review would make sense.
