With injuries ravaging the Liverpool squad, there are sure to be games they’d rather face than host leaders Leicester City.
The Foxes are on fire on the streets this season after winning all four league games they played outside of King Power Stadium. They didn’t just achieve this through weaker teams as they took three points at Manchester City and Arsenal.
This is a clear change in their form from the end of 2019/20. Brendan Rodgers ‘side beat Newcastle at St James’ Park on New Year’s Day, but then had the second worst away record in the Premier League for the remainder of the season, drawing three and losing five of their eight games.
And their upsurge in form on the street was supported by the officials and the clumsy defense of the opposition. Leicester have scored six away penalties this season, a third of the total for the division as a whole. No other team has scored more than one goal. You have to go back to January 2019 and over 31 away matches to find Liverpool’s last six league penalties that weren’t at Anfield.
So if the Reds defend cleverly in their box – and maybe keep their arms behind their backs – they can dampen Leicester’s threat of attack. Rodgers’ team has the fourth highest expected goal difference in the top division overall but rules out penalties and then has the sixth worst. It’s a big part of their arsenal.
They haven’t scored any counter-attack or set-up goals this season (according to WhoScored), and the Reds may see the latter as a way to hurt them in the opposite direction.
The Foxes conceded the most goals conceded from scheduled games in 2020/21 and they account for all three that they left out from home. This has traditionally been a strong area for Liverpool, although of course the absence of Virgil van Dijk will significantly reduce their threat.
Leicester look weak from crosses too – Burnley, Manchester City and West Ham all scored against them this way – but with Trent Alexander-Arnold injured and Andy Robertson currently in doubt, Liverpool may have to find another way to get around them to beat.
Enter Thiago Alcantara. He has yet to appear for his new club at Anfield and has not been seen since Richarlison’s terrible challenge in the Merseyside derby. His incisive pass could prove crucial in breaking down a likely low-lying Leicester backline.
It’s important to remember that it is unlikely to replace the direct support potential that the Reds full-backs would normally offer. In his last four seasons in the Bundesliga, he scored 13 goals (via WhoScored), as many as Alexander-Arnold scored in 2019/20 alone.
But Thiago is a master of passing that opens up a defense and allows a teammate to create a great opportunity to score. His ball to Sadio Mané in stoppage time at Goodison Park was a fabulous example of this, even if Jordan Henderson denied a Derby winner with the slightest offside calls.
Statsbomb has a statistic that takes this into account, as their shot-generating actions look past the pass that creates an opportunity. Thiago had 85 direct chances in the last three seasons (per FBRef), but made 193 shots.
In other words, he did over 100 major creative actions that weren’t reflected in the more traditional statistics.
How can Liverpool get the best out of him on Sunday? West Ham had their biggest win against Leicester this season, but Klopp is unlikely to mimic David Moyes’ 5-4-1 formation anytime soon.
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Aston Villa have also inflicted defeat on the Foxes, however, and their 4-2-3-1 lineup is on both Klopp and Thiago Streets. Dean Smith’s team limited Leicester to just six shots in their box, and it was the only game that season in which the Foxes had no clear chance.
Liverpool’s new number six could play in the double pivot at the foot of midfield (next to whoever is left) and pull the strings from there to allow the front four players to wreak havoc in the penalty area.
The Spaniard could easily prove to be the key that unlocks the leaders’ defense on his Anfield debut.
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