The NBA playoffs continue and Saturday brings us a two-game betting card. Here’s what strikes me DraftKings Sportsbook on Saturday.
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Raptors +1 (-112)
This is an interesting line. The Raptors were favorites in each of the first three games of the series. Oddly, it wasn’t until Toronto won a game that the betting line shifted in Boston’s favor. I keep seeing the Raptors as the slightly stronger team of the two and eventually, the three-pointer will go their way. At this point, Boston is achieving a much higher percentage than three even though these teams are creating about the same number of open looks from within. Fred VanVleet saw plenty of open shots in the series and only converted 27.2% of his three-point attempts. The Raptors are expected to see a positive regression in forward shots and OG Anunoby’s shot to win Thursday could be the sign of things to come.
OVER 21.5 points (+100)
I am optimistic about Lowry at DFS and the betting market due to his recent workload. With the Raptors needing a Game 3 win, he played all but 90 seconds. The Raptors have no problem playing Lowry as long as it takes to win games. Toronto is basically the opposite of how the Bucks and Mike Budenholzer manage their rotation. After Lowry played 46.5 minutes and scored 31 points to go on with eight assists on Thursday, I think he could overtake his players today. Unless he’s in trouble or getting hurt, Lowry will be playing huge minutes as the Raptors try to equalize this two-game series.
Nuggets +9.5 (-113)
The first game in this series didn’t go the way of the Nuggets. It wasn’t all that surprising and the deck was stacked against them. After a hard-fought streak against the Jazz that spanned seven games, Denver only had one day off before starting a streak against a rested Clippers team. The Nuggets were taken off the pitch and the game was never really competitive. The good news is Denver got their starters off the pitch early to save them for later in the series. Now the Nuggets move to Game 2 as a huge loser. I don’t think they win this match, nor do I think they have a great chance of winning the series, but they are in a better position to compete than on Thursday. I like Denver’s chances of keeping this game a little close and covering the spread.
OVER 34.5 (+110)
As for DFS, I think Murray is overpriced. It is priced with the likes of Nikola Jokic, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and I don’t think it’s anywhere near the level of those players. That said, I think the market is correcting a bit when it comes to its counting stats. Even if he were to regress from the numbers against the Jazz, 34.5 points, rebounds and assists is a very low number considering his recent workload. We’re also getting more extra money. Against Utah, he averaged 31.6 points, 6.3 assists and 5.6 rebounds. Denver needs Murray to get big in this series to compete with the Clippers and he should play more than 40 minutes per game.
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