Remember when we all thought browns were the next dominant team in the NFL? Or that Carson Wentz was an obvious future MVP? Or that Sean McVay was the next big brain in the league? Some of the NFL teams, players, and coaches that have been in the spotlight over the past few seasons are entering 2020 with tempered expectations – but that doesn’t mean we should be counting them. welcome to The ringPost-threshing week, when we revisit some of the league’s biggest stories from seasons past that didn’t elicit as much love before this campaign.
Carson Wentz heads into the 2020 season to get out of quarterback limbo. The 27-year-old Eagles starter has been called somewhat overrated and underrated, the product of contrasting flashes of supreme talent and frustrating inconsistency. Wentz is paid as one of the league’s top three players – at least according to his $ 107 million in guarantees – but he has yet to consolidate among the elite players in the quarterback position.
Struggling with injuries, coaching turnover, a marked lack of receiving talent and even minor quarterback controversy at various times over the past two seasons, Wentz has struggled to match his incredible breakout performance. in 2017 – an MVP-caliber campaign that was unfortunately interrupted by a torn ACL late in the season. After consecutive seasons of good but not good results, expectations vary wildly for the fifth year pro. With that in mind, let’s dive deep into the numbers and Wentz’s gang to try and answer the question: Was his 2017 season an anomaly, or can he return to his MVP form in 2020?
What do the statistics say?
Wentz’s brilliant 2017 season set the bar for the realistic advantages and potential of the former second overall pick. In Week 14 of this season (when he suffered an ACL tear in a win over the Rams), Wentz had thrown the league’s 33 best touchdowns to just seven picks, averaged 8.3 adjusted net yards per pass (sixth among regular starters), and notched a 101.9 passers score (fifth). He finished the year fifth in Pro Football Focus passing score (84.7), first in QBR (78.5) and sixth in Football Outsiders DVOA (23.8%). Truly, the only black mark on his stats line was a lackluster 60.2% completion rate, which was tied for 25th among qualifying quarterbacks.
Wentz did improve in that column in 2018, however. After missing the first two games of the season by readjusting his knee, he posted a career-best 69.6% completion rate while increasing his passer rating (102.2) in 11 starts. However, in addition to those two metrics, his numbers dropped pretty much across the board: he counted a 21-7 touchdown / interception ratio, finishing 14th in PFF’s passing score (78.5), 12th in QBR (62.0) and 12th in DVOA. . For audience #QBWinz, he led the defending Super Bowl champions to a disappointing 5-6 record before being stopped in Week 15 with a back injury. (By the way, Nick Foles was 4-1 in his five starts, and led the team to a playoff berth and a wildcard win over the Bears. Philly bowed out in the round of division.)
In 2019, Wentz played a full 16-game regular-season lineup for the first time since his rookie season, throwing 27 touchdowns in seven interceptions. His scores in completion rate (63.9%), PFF pass mark (74.5), QBR (60.8) and DVOA (0.1%) all declined again, however, and the Eagles’ offense was a mostly middle group as they struggled to make up for key losses to the receiver (DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery missed much of the year). Wentz was left throwing passes to a ragged group of rookies, calls from the practice squad and a former AAF star. Despite those limitations, Wentz led the Eagles to a 9-7 record after a four-game winning streak to end the season that earned the team a playoff berth. This race came to a disappointing end, however, as Wentz was forced to pull out of the team’s loss to the Seahawks with a concussion.
The Wow-Play factor
While a few oft-cited and reliable stats show Wentz’s slight decline over the past two seasons, there are some encouraging signs that a rebound year could be in the cards. For starters, his performance under pressure has improved dramatically: after posting an adjusted completion rate of 53.2% under pressure in 2017 (28th among passer with over 300 dropouts, per Pro Football Focus), this number rose to 68.2 in 2018 (ninth) and remained relatively stable in 2019 at 65.6% (also ninth). His 10 touchdown passes under pressure last season tied for NFL highs, and PFF awarded him 14 large-scale throws (i.e., precise, highly ranked downstream passes) under pressure over the year, tied for third in the league. It produces the kinds of “wow” games that can change the tide of a game.
These great pieces overshadow his mistakes. The fifth-year pro has rare physical gifts, combining a large, solid frame with a really strong arm and plenty of mobility, and when he puts it all together on the football field, it’s a sight to behold. Wentz almost looks more comfortable doing sand plays out of the attacking structure, darting, strafing and escaping the rushed pass to find his man down for a big play.
His high-level arm strength and natural vision of the field allow him to throw shots that few NFL quarterbacks are capable of. That arrow in the back of the end zone in the team’s Week 14 victory over Washington took my jaw off the ground. It’s a ridiculous throw.
Wentz can however mix his velocity from game to game, loading and uncorking a fastball on a single throw …
… Before smoothing out a feathery brushstroke, skip to the line on the next.
He’s also aggressive in his state of mind, never afraid to push the envelope and thread the needle through a tight blanket. He trusts his arm and he trusts his receivers.
What is holding Wentz back?
If we only judged quarterbacks based on their most exciting and difficult games, Wentz would be among the best in the league. When it is turned on it sure. But you could probably say the same about Jameis Winston, too – and Wentz wasn’t immune to getting kicked late, missing open receivers, or making grueling turnovers.
Daniel Jones has been criticized for his 18 worst fumbles in the league in 2019, and it’s an issue that worries his long-term future in the league. Wentz, though – a much more experienced player wasn’t too far behind the Giants rookie. The Eagles signalman finished the year with 16 fumbles (second worst), losing seven to opponents. On far too many games, fumbles were the product of Wentz trying to do too much, refusing to simply take the sack and live to play down another. Here are two examples from that Week 14 game against Washington.
Wentz has the size and the power to shrug, pass rushers, and escape to keep the game alive, but it has proven to be a double-edged sword at times. He must clean up his ball safety in 2020.
Injuries also hit the Eagles hard in 2019, which had an undeniable effect on Wentz’s overall performance. When Jackson came out with a heart injury after Week 2, Philly’s lack of speed became a real problem. Instead of leaning on their quarterback’s mighty arm and airing the ball consistently, Philly had to rely on much shorter and intermediate routes as the basis of the passing game. Without the ability to produce explosive plays (they finished with just six passes from over 40 yards on the year, the third under – and two came from Jackson in Week 1), the team was forced to ” string together long, sustained workouts. It’s not easy, but one way or another the Eagles finished the season with an incredible 23 scoring records from over 10 games.
Philadelphia has gone to great lengths during the offseason to address this major issue. The team made TCU speedster Jalen Reagor their first-round pick, and he suits their speed-hungry attack perfectly and should contribute immediately. The Eagles added some deeper playmakers in John Hightower and Quez Watkins in the middle rounds. And they’ll get Jackson back from an injury. This could be a huge boon for Wentz in 5th grade.
Of course, the lack of speed and talent on the receiver isn’t the only reason Wentz’s numbers plummeted in 2019. There have been a few too many times he’s just made bad shots, either in throwing the ball late or incorrectly. He needs to clean up these types of inexplicable misfires.
Wentz finished in the top 10 for NFL completion percentage above the expectations metric (which measures a quarterback’s performance relative to the difficulty of his throws at an aggregate level) in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, he dropped to 23rd place. statistics, fair behind Mitchell Trubisky. I believe a positive regression is coming.
Outlook for 2020 and beyond
It should be noted that the question posed in this piece – whether Wentz can return to his MVP Form in 2020, that’s probably not quite right. It’s not reasonable to expect former MVPs like Matt Ryan or Cam Newton to constantly recreate their season-MVP numbers, nor is it likely that others like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will statistically improve their respective MVP performances year after year. Almost every MVP winner over the past decade has enjoyed a star roster in a variety of areas, be it coaching, scheduling, supporting cast, timing, a little luck – or all of the above. .
This was obviously true for Wentz during his 2017 bar campaign, as evidenced by the Eagles’ magical Super Bowl run under the guidance of quarterback Nick Foles. Instead of focusing on statistical benchmarks that could take Wentz out of his current status as an “enigma” and go into full-blown superstar mode, it probably makes more sense to look at the global variables at play. Wentz has a skill set. almost ideal and a natural arm talent. He has proven he can perform well under pressure, is extraordinarily good as an off-structure improviser, and brings a strong arm and aggressive mindset to the table. And, most importantly, the team and season specific stars may be realigning themselves for Wentz to make a big leap back in MVP-caliber gaming in 2020. Philly is expected to roll out an innovative new program under the Forward-thinking head coach Doug Pederson, a system set to get a huge boost with Jackson’s return, the infusion of the squad of young playmakers stretching out on the pitch, and a playmaker Potential utility similar to Taysom Hill and second quarterback to Jalen Hurts. Add to that Wentz’s ‘dad bod’ upgrade to 250 pounds, which could help protect him from wear and tear and the prospect of another shortened season for injuries, and the parts are in place. for Wentz’s long-awaited breakthrough.
