Two chiefs set to lead the NFL in three 2020 statistical categories

On Monday, NFL.com analysis writer Cynthia Frelund posted a set of projections (she carefully noted that they are projections rather than predictions) for the upcoming NFL season, identifying players who, according to its mathematical modeling, will lead the league in various statistical categories.

According to his calculations, two Kansas City Chiefs will lead the league in three categories.

Passing yards: 4790

Patrick mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

The COVID-19 pandemic has wiped out in-person off-season activities and continues to present unprecedented challenges as we head towards kick-off. As a result, we are faced with a whole host of new factors on the projection front. One of the changes that I have programmed in my models for this season: to promote staff continuity (prioritized by position and number of shots) even more than in previous years. We’re still seeing chemistry and playbook learning curves – my logic is these will be even more impactful without a normal offseason and preseason (note: curves make vary depending on the position). The Chiefs have the most profitable high-value players in number of shots, most notably at the top quarterback position and among the QB’s top passing touchdown winners. My model projects Mahomes to gain over 4,500 passing yards in 67% of the simulations (think something over 60%). Mahomes finishes at the top of the league in 18.5% of the models.

Intel Bonus: Rounding out the top five, Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady leads in 16.5% of the runs (with over 4,200 passing yards in 63% of the runs), and Dallas’ Dak Prescott takes the cake in 16%. Drew Brees of New Orleans is fourth at 15.5%, while Matt Ryan of Atlanta is fifth at 12%.

As fans of the Chiefs, it’s easy for us to predict that Mahomes will return to his 2018 production in any given season. But it’s important to remember that a record season is just that: a record season. By definition, this is an outlier – something that probably won’t happen very often.

Still, it’s reasonable to think that in 2020 Mahomes could be making assists in the same neighborhood as his 2018 season. It just seems fair to me.

Touchdowns: 37

Patrick mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes wins over 35 touchdowns in 57.5% of 16-game simulations. Predicting the 2018 NFL MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP to lead the league in passing touchdowns is hardly surprising, so let’s offload the touchdown algorithm here for three more QBs: Seattle’s Russell Wilson throws over 30 touchdowns in 55.5% of sims, Buffalo Josh Allen leads 22 in 57% of sims and Ryan Tannehill of Tennessee or exceeds his total of 22 touchdowns last season in 54.9% of sims. A player whose projection surprised me? Joe Burrow, Bengals first choice. His middle projection is to throw 21 touchdowns. (I use all of the median projections to rank players in the Fantasy rankings, but there’s always a ceiling and a floor.) Last season Giants rookie Daniel Jones threw 24 touchdown passes. In fact, 14 quarterbacks threw more than 24 touchdown passes. When I look at how many times in the Burrow model hits or exceeds 24 touchdowns, this happens in 53.6% of the simulations. Interesting.

More of the same: As Chiefs fans, it’s easy to think Mahomes will return to 2018 this season – but an outlier is again an outlier. All the same, if Mahomes is healthy all season long, that seems a little low to me. I guess he will arrive in his forties.

Hit: 7

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Damien Williams’ removal from the season has resulted in a huge increase in fantastic value for CEH. Looking at ADP (average draft position), Edwards-Helaire is currently trading at around RB5 in PPR leagues. While I fully agree with a ton of value coming from the Chiefs’ first-round pick, let’s change the expectations a bit. My model classifies it RB10. Not in the top five, but still a high ranking, especially for a rookie. One way to potentially gain a fantastic advantage here is to watch a few other rookies who have strong TD projections and hook them up in the later rounds of your draft. My model likes Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. for winning five or more touchdowns (occurs in 53.9 percent of simulations). The WR Henry Ruggs III Raiders hit more than five times the paydirt in 57.1% of the simulations.

For the Chiefs, Edwards-Helaire is the big unknown of the 2020 season. On paper, he is a perfect worthy of the attack from Chiefs head coach Andy Reid; there’s every reason to think he’s going finally be a big contributor. And yet, he’s still a rookie entering his first season in the NFL – one with no real offseason schedule. How important is this going to matter?

Mathematical models tend to have difficulty with unprecedented situations, so I’m not sure how much confidence to place the Frelund projection here. So I’m going to follow my instincts, remembering that Kareem Hunt scored 11 scrum touchdowns in 2017; seven touchdowns for Edwards-Helaire in 2020 seem a bit low to me.