With the first round of the playoffs starting on Monday, the NBA will soon announce this year’s regular season award winners, based on pre-bubble performance. This year’s MVP finalists have already been announced, with only Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James expected to receive the votes for first place. This fits into a pattern that has become the norm in recent years: the number of serious MVP nominees is rarely more than two players.
Since 1981, the first season that the NBA media voted for the award, there have been eight MVP races in which two or fewer players have received top votes. It has happened in five of the last seven MVP races – six in the last eight if it is repeated this year.
The days when fringe MVP candidates like Peja Stojaković or Jermaine O’Neal could steal a vote or two in first place are long gone. In today’s NBA, there is a clear consensus on which players are competing for the highest individual championship honor, making it more difficult to justify a vote for a candidate when they don’t have a realistic chance of winning.
One reason for this drop in marginal MVP candidates may be that the NBA now advertises every voter vote, a practice that began in 2014. Before that, when a voter wanted to go against the grain and vote for Carmelo Anthony instead of LeBron James for MVP, that voter did it anonymously. But since 2014, every media member’s vote for each award is a public record. This puts pressure on voters to submit ballots that don’t stray too far from consensus unless they want to be publicly shamed.
Athletic’s Sam Amick, who has an MVP vote, suggested that fear of backlash, particularly on social media, leads to fewer dissenting views in the MVP race. In 2019, Amick told Hoops Hype: “There are definitely some people who think that a few years ago, if the votes hadn’t been publicized, Stephen Curry wouldn’t have won unanimously. In 2015-16, it reached a point where there were no other candidates [perceived to be on the same level] so you would have been an idiot if you had voted for anyone other than Steph. “
Compare the MVP race to the NBA’s Executive of the Year award, which is voted on by team executives (they can’t vote for themselves) and the voting is kept secret. In each of the last three seasons, the only seasons with total votes available, eight nominees received top votes for the award.
Another factor likely contributing to the trend toward consensus is that the NBA has taken steps to make the panel of media members voting for awards less team-focused. As recently as 2016, local broadcasters were able to vote for prizes, which may have led to some voting favoring hometown players. Guys like Ben Wallace in 2003, Elton Brand in 2006 and Dwight Howard in 2009 may have benefited from this kind of homerism: all three received exactly one MVP vote in first place in their respective seasons.
The voter panel is also smaller than in previous years. After the NBA took away voting privileges from local broadcasters in 2017, the number of voters fell from 131 to 101. A smaller voter pool means there are fewer first-place votes around.
A final reason that voters converge on a couple of players each year could be that voters have more information about the candidates than ever. Discussions about the MVP race take place all year round and often begin before a single match of the regular season is played.
Voters also have access to better information. Advanced analytics, which allow for easier and more objective player comparisons, have improved as they have grown in popularity. This also means that it is harder to support Player C when Player A and Player B rank higher in various impact metrics. As a result, subjective analysis and narrative, which can favor fringe MVP candidates, play a smaller role in determining the best voters than they might have had in years past.
This, on the surface, is a good thing. Advances in accountability and access to more and better information have resulted in an improved MVP race where, more often than not, the player with the most impressive season wins the prize. If there is a downside, it is that voters are vulnerable to groupthink.
One way to counter groupthink is to encourage voters to embrace the ambiguity of what “most valuable” means. The NBA has never explicitly defined it, so why start now? After all, under a broad view of the “most valuable”, there may be multiple candidates to choose from.
For example, if you think the MVP should be awarded to the best player – and not necessarily the one who just had the best season – then it’s perfectly reasonable to vote for Kawhi Leonard, the reigning Finals MVP. Or if you feel the MVP should be given to the player who elevated himself and his team more than pre-season expectations, then there is a case for Chris Paul as an MVP. Or, if you want to literally define “valuable” and rely on which NBA player performed best in relation to his contract, then a vote for Luka Dončić makes sense.
To be clear, there is nothing wrong with someone voting for Antetokounmpo or James. But it’s worth considering whether we need a voter group of 100 if that’s what everyone is going to do.
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