Look now:
Response: Trail Blazers deserve the right to play Lakers in the first round
((3:19)
Now that the Portland Trail Blazers secure their number 8 in the Western Conference, we can focus on whether they have a realistic chance of upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. If you think it does, it is mainly for one reason: you have Damian Lillard who is currently setting Disney World on fire. Of course, the Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So not a bad superstar counter.
Below we will address some of the questions and matchup dilemmas that make this series coloring. I think this is the most fascinating of all the first round series. This is also where you can find the schedule and TV info for each game, which will be updated with results for as long as the series lasts.
(1) Lakers vs. (8) Blazer schedule
All times east
Game 1: Tuesday, August 6pm, 9pm, TNT
Game 2: Thursday, August 20, 9 p.m., ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, August 22nd, 8:30 p.m., ABC
Game 4: Monday, August 24th, 9pm, TNT
Game 5: Wednesday August 26th, TBD, TBD
Game 6: Friday August 28th, TBD, TBD
Game 7: Sunday August 30th, TBD, TBD
1. Star Wars
As we discussed above, if the Blazers have a chance to make this streak interesting, let alone win, Damian Lillard has to be something productive to the best player in the world. At this point, that feels like a pretty good bet. Next to Lillard, CJ McCollum has to play like a star. As a duo, the backyard of the Blazer can keep up with LeBron and AD in terms of pure evaluation.
And they will need it. McCollum plays with a broken lower back, which sounds terrible, but judging by the way McCollum played in the play-in game against Memphis, he’s still capable of a one-on-one on a consistent basis – Create offensive. The Lakers don’t have many defenders to throw at these two, especially without Avery Bradley. LeBron will likely have to spend time with Lillard, which is a difficult task for James, not to mention the energy usage.
There is, of course, a downside to this coin: Portland has no prayer to individually protect LeBron. Gary Trent Jr., Mario Hezonja, Carmelo Anthony, forget it. This is where Trevor Ariza, pulling out of the bladder, really hurts the blazers – not that Ariza would scare James even a bit, but it would have been a one-on-one option to get LeBron at least a little bit of work let bit without breaking down your defenses with doubles teams (more on that in a moment).
While LeBron gets where he wants on this series, the blazers are at least a certain size to fight Davis, but Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside won’t be able to keep up with him where he’ll be with LeBron a lot isolated and pick- and roll work. Zach Collins could play a crucial role here. Like LeBron with Ariza, Collins isn’t going to make Davis blink, but it’s a sensible addition to at least getting him to work while maintaining the semblance of a defensive balance.
Davis will have his hands full too. Nurkic clenches. He had 22 points and 21 rebounds in Portland’s play-in win over Memphis.
2. Doubles and drops
The Lakers will almost certainly double up and at least catch Lillard for distances. If it gets hot they almost certainly undertake to get the ball out of his hands at all costs. Lillard has gotten to the point where you’ll have to send multiple defenders on him when he’s halfway across the field if you don’t want to land on the business end of a blowtorch.
This opens up advantageous situations for the Blazers that the riflemen have to make the Lakers pay for sending two to Lillard. The math is going to leave either Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr., and of course McCollum open for a lot of takes, and these guys are knocking them all down right now in one high clip. Nurkic has also shown a good sense of taking short roll passes and either getting to the basket, finishing delicate push shots, or kicking shooters. The Blazers are a very dangerous offensive team for the simple reason that Lillard will burn you one way or another: single covers him and he gets 50; Double it and open archers make you pay.
It’s a little different for the Lakers. They don’t have the collective shooting that the blazers do. The Blazers will live happily ever after throughout the series as Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, and Dion Waiter’s threesome kick off. It’s not saying they won’t be able to knock them down, but it’s a better bet they won’t than letting LeBron his way.
The difference is that you don’t have to double LeBron 40 feet from the basket like Lillard does. They also let him shoot as many threes as he wants. What LeBron wants to do is play the pick and roll game to get switches that prohibit him from having the edge over a Nurkic or Collins or Heaven, Carmelo Anthony. The blazers probably won’t give him this opportunity if they can help and will pull their big guys back as much as possible. Make him do pull ups.
Of course, LeBron won’t be satisfied with pull-ups. He will use the descent to get to the edge. But only Nurkic, Collins and Whiteside have at least a chance to protect the rim. They are boiled on the edge. I suspect this will be a series largely defined by the Lakers, who aggressively guard Lillard Pick-and-Rolls, and the Blazers, who guard LeBron Pick-and-Rolls conservatively.
3. Carmelo puzzle
Anthony was superb on the bubble, scoring 16.5 points per game at just under 46 percent shooting, of which 47 percent out of three. Say what you want of Melo, but Portland’s offense doesn’t have a hard time making her way on the floor with Melo – unless Lillard just goes insane. He’s a spacer. A shooter. I hear his back-down post-ups and one-dribble pull-ups are an analytical nightmare, but right now they’re a BIG part of what Portland is doing offensively.
Anthony’s defense is a different story. He’s trying really hard, and whether it is about losing weight or just trying harder, he at least gives himself a chance to keep the guys from dribbling. Even so, Melo is relentlessly chased over switches and forced to defend himself in space unless LeBron decides to go easy on his banana boat buddy, who we can safely assume won’t. If things don’t go well, when does he become a net negative despite his crime?
As long as Melo shoots, he stays in the game because at the end of the day the only chance the Blazers have to win this series is in a shootout. You won’t hold onto the Lakers. You must aim for more than 120 points in each game and take the risk that the Lakers fail to score. Even so, they can’t just be a defensive red carpet. Melo needs to at least be competitive on this point so as not to force Terry Stotts into the difficult decision of having to decide whether to stay on the ground.
