Miami is a favorite of dark horses in the playoffs – the Heat have many fans in and out of league circles.
Milwaukee has its share of doubters, people who think the Bucks are overrated and a pony with only one trick.
Does this mean we have an upset fermentation in the East? The “unpredictable bubble playoffs” have largely followed the form so far, but the no. 5 Heat has matchup issues for the seeded Bucks which make this perhaps the first major reversal of the playoffs. This is why this second series – which focuses on Monday evening – has aroused a lot of interest.
In order for the Miami Heat to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, these three things must come together for them.
1) Bam Adebayo and company must slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nobody is stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo right now: he’s the best player in the world. The reigning MVP is about to win that award consecutively (and has just been named Defensive of the Year).
Antetokounmpo is about to get his, the important thing is to slow him down, take him to half court and have someone who can make the Greek Freak less efficient.
Enter Bam Adebayo.
Adebayo has the length, athleticism, and strength to bother Antetokounmpo as much as any human can. According to advanced stats from NBA.com, Antetokounmpo shot 12 out of 28 this season when he was being guarded by Adebayo. Which is great, but this can’t be a one-man show (and the Heat can’t afford to get Adebayo in trouble). Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, and Derrick Jones Jr. are likely to have time to guard Antetokounmpo. More importantly, there has to be a smart and decisive defense to help the Greek Freak to get him into tough spots.
There is a project to slow Antetokounmpo and Eric Spoelstra will stick to it: go back and take away his transition buckets, double it inside the three-point line (and encourage him to take all three he wants) and do the pack the paint. Those play Miami’s defensive strengths. Antetokounmpo will serve Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton and the other Bucks – and that’s okay. Get beaten by those guys. As always with Milwaukee, it’s up to the other players on the team to step forward.
2) Miami shooters must hit three over the limit
The Bucks have had the best defense in the NBA this season, but their Achilles heel is no secret: no team gives up more three-point attempts than Milwaukee – 39.3 per game in the regular season. Their defense to protect the paint at all costs must yield something, and three are.
However, all three are not the same and Milwaukee is smart about the three they give up. They close hard and chase the guys out of the shortest corner. Plus, the Bucks are the best team to get to know your staff – they don’t give room for sharpshooters during the arc, only for minor threats. In the first round against Miami, Markelle Fultz was at the all-you-can-eat buffet at the arch, but notice how the Bucks knocked Evan Fournier off the line when he took the ball? They knew.
What happens when the Bucks run into a squad full of shooters? This is Miami. They are full of players who can take the three down, hitting 37.9% from deep as a team this season (second best in the league). More importantly, the heat shot 38.2% on the three above the break and has some particularly lethal shooters.
Look for Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic to get lots of clean top looks. If those two – and other Heat shooters like Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, and Kelly Olynyk – reach their three, the Heat can score points against the best Buck defense in the league.
As a side note, Miami – and Butler in particular – have to go in to balance things out. Butler isn’t a three-point shooter, but he has to hit on the edge and his medium shots to get his and help click attack.
3) Mike Budenholzer’s adjustments have yet to be lower
Eric Spoelstra will have a plan when the first game stops. And, when parts of that plan don’t work, it will adapt. Fast. When a player proves he’s a bad matchup in this series, Spoelstra will ruthlessly make a change.
Will Mike Budenholzer make the necessary adjustments? And when it does, will they work?
This is the book about Budenholzer, right or not: man sticks to his plan until a mistake. And when your plan is “get the ball to Antetokounmpo and get out of the way,” that plan will work almost every night. He was slow to adapt against Toronto, slow to pick up Antetokounmpo minutes.
Budenholzer says he has learned from his mistakes. And to be fair, he’s been doing things this season like roleplaying lineups with Antetokounmpo at five for long periods. Or publish Brook Lopez because it was the best matchup. The problem for Budenholzer was – and he was against the last Toronto playoffs – his players weren’t always making his adjustments.
They need this season. They need this series.
Spoelstra and the Heat have almost no room for error in this series, they must slow Antetokounmpo and execute their attack (hit their three) at a high level to have a chance. You know that Spoelstra will put her boys in the right positions.
Will Budenholzer have the counters?
