There’s nothing like picking a first-round leader, then having to wait an extra day to sweat a three-man (or more) split.
You know, in general. I am not referring to anything in particular here.
The opening round of the Wyndham Championship was suspended late Thursday afternoon due to bad weather with 33 players still on the pitch.
As the round will be completed early Friday morning, some round two matchups are not yet listed, but luckily we have enough to keep us busy throughout the day.
Here are four potential outrights and four group matchups that I’m targeting.
Ryan Moore (+4000)
The 2009 champion, who made three more top 10 finishes at this event, opened the week north of 40/1, but it was such a popular play that it was wagered until 1/30 on Thursday morning. Well, he opened with a 3-under 67, during which he took the ball just below the court average and earned shots everywhere – and ended the day 40/1. It seems like a valuable game for a guy who obviously knows and loves this course.
Billy Horschel (+2500)
Almost the same thing here, as Horschel was 33/1 pre-tournament, so he opened with a 4-under 66. Sure, you could kick yourself for not catching him earlier, but think about it this way: you just paid a modest price to see if he was still hitting the ball well after last week’s major. The answer is perhaps resounding, as he did most of his damage with the flatstick on Thursday. However, with just four shots ahead, it might be worth putting in the irons to recover.
Mark Hubbard (+8000)
This is truly a live bet as Hubbard still has two holes to finish in his opening round. He is currently 4-under and will have an approach shot from the left rough, 142 yards away, first thing on Friday morning. Best scenario: He makes a bird or two on the way, then – already hot and ready to go – heads straight for his second round in supposedly calmer conditions. For a guy who has been playing golf consistently lately, he might be ready to fight for a title.
Doc Redman (+7000)
It was my pre-tournament favorite outright and in case you didn’t get a chance to play it or just ignored my prediction, you’re essentially getting a mulligan here. Redman scored a 3-under 67, picking up more than one shot on the field from both the tee-to-green and the putting, but remains at 70/1, exactly where he was before the tournament started.
Round 2 Group Matchups
Webb Simpson (+110) on Sungjae Im and Brendon Todd
So, you wanted a piece of Webb at one of his favorite events this week, but couldn’t pull the trigger on him as the tournament favorite? Understandable. Well, here’s an opportunity to get him in plus-money after placing a 4-under 66 with a double-bogey on his card. I haven’t had his best things in over a month now and while Todd has really had his best things, I like the possibility that Simpson will keep birding by eliminating the big mistake. Oh, and it also happens to drive the PGA TOUR in the average of R2 scores.
Billy Horschel (EVEN) on Kevin Tway and Patton Kizzire
We don’t think too much about things. Horschel is a better player, he has been playing well lately and has quite a bit of history. Kizzire (66) and Tway (68) did well on Thursday, but try to keep Horschel warm here.
Zach Johnson (+235) on Si Woo Kim and Keith Mitchell
Hey, I can’t just give you a favorite in all these games. Johnson struck the ball superbly on Thursday, finishing seventh on the approach shots, but his put was excruciating. It is very different from the two-time major champion, so we should believe there will be a positive regression to the second round. He is also the type of person who grinds to make the cut. I really like the way Kim plays right now and Mitchell always scares me because of her birdie ability, but I like the price on Johnson here.
Shane Lowry (+225) on Paul Casey and Patrick Reed
In the opening round, Reed turned 65, Casey 67 and Lowry 68, but there is too much love from the oddsmakers over the bigger names with slightly better scores. Lowry has earned shots from the tee, on his approach shots and on the greens, which suggests that a low number may be in his way. Again, if all three players had the same odds, you could go in a different direction, but at more than 2/1, Lowry is worth a try.
