Workday Charity Open Round 4 Betting Tips: Use the traits obtained to find an advantage

Welp, if you also have a Collin Morikawa Ticket 33-1, Saturday was not your best day. The young man who had dominated the first two rounds fired an even round, which means he was overtaken by two stallions in Justin Thomas is Viktor Hovland.

JT is two shots ahead of Hovland, who is 14 years old and stands alone in second place. Morikawa is 13 years old and the rest of the camp is 11 years old or worse. It definitely looks like this is a three game at this point.

Will JT close things or is it worth buying the other two? Let’s go through.

But first, a quick explanation of the data obtained by Strokes and their significance for the golf handicap.

(Click here to jump to the analysis section.)

Explanations obtained by shots

Strokes Gained can offer golf bettors, DFS players and fans more details on how a golfer is really playing measuring each stroke in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it has, the TOUR calculates on average how many shots it takes to get the ball into the hole from any distance and situation. If a player beats the middle ones, he is gaining hits on the field.

Every situation in golf is different: Strokes Gained measures how players manage them in relation to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics …

• Hits: off the pitch
• Acquired strokes: approach
• Hits achieved: around the green
• Acquired strokes: mass
• Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
• Traits acquired: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, hitting the ball and tee-to-green are more stable in the long run, and you can often find live betting benefits by identifying golfers who hit the ball well but don’t drop the put, which is more casual. Similarly, players with high SG: putting numbers can regress going forward.

More information on the Strokes obtained here.

3 golfers to buy in Round 4

To begin with, I obviously think JT will win this thing. I didn’t include it, because, well, why should you “buy” maybe the best player in the world who has a two-shot lead coming Sunday?

And to be honest, I don’t think his odds of -159 on DraftKings are that bad. It’s a little over 60% chance of winning, which is probably fair. I don’t think you’re getting excess value there, but I wouldn’t judge anyone for jumping on the ship at this point, given his talent and advantage.

Hovland and Morikawa are +350 and +650, respectively, which I actually think provide value here.

Think about it this way: if you agree that this is a three game, then you can essentially limit the rest of the field in probability of winning. And if you do, adding JT, Hovland and Morikawa together is not 100% equivalent, which means that you are automatically getting a potential value without even thinking about the juice.

Of the two, Hovland is a closer shot and has been impressive for weeks and weeks at this point. I think he has the best chance of going down on Sunday and would probably prefer his odds slightly than Morikawa’s.

But Collin isn’t out of it, and I still believe in his game despite the poor Saturday round. He lost 1.53 shots in his approach game today, and it’s like a 10% lower result for him given his ironic game. I bet tomorrow he will get hit on it – the question is whether he will be able to earn enough to overcome the deficit.

And finally, I don’t think Hideki is worth buying in the winning market, but certainly in DFS and perhaps in the top 10 market. He is in line with JT in the approaching week and head of Morikawa and Hovland in that department.

3 golfers to fade in Round 4

MJ Daffue it’s a very nice story. He has had enough career and is taking full advantage of his recent qualifying streak.

I will cheer him on, but unfortunately I will vanish him in DFS. He actually played well all Saturday, but he did most of his damage with his putter, which I feel well fade away in a hard Sunday sweat.

And it’s largely the same story for Zach Johnson is Charley Hoffman, the latter who earned nearly four hits by putting on Saturday. Hoff is a great putter, but the average doesn’t give you those scores on a regular basis. Given that he has lost a lot of hits with the rest of his clubs, I don’t think he will find the same success tomorrow.

ZJ has been more consistent with his putter, but unlike, say, Ian Poulter, who has been equally excellent on the greens, I am skeptical that he will hold out in the long run given his general shape.

Of course, my usual disclaimer: golf in a round is very random, and even if a boy is due to regression, that doesn’t mean he’ll come the next day. Make sure to remember that especially in DFS contests: it’s probably wise to play the proprietary game more than the prediction game on the showdown lists.

Okay, just talk. Here are the figures for all Saturday players.

Hits obtained for each player in Round 3

(Note: the chart below is interactive. Click / hover to view the data.)