Look now:
Anthony Davis says the Lakers have a better chance of winning the NBA title after Hiatus
(02:56)
In honor of The Decision’s 10th anniversary, CBS Sports is reviewing LeBron James‘2010 decision to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat wondering what could have happened if James had signed elsewhere. In today’s edition, James forms the final superteam with the Chicago Bulls.
The logic
Championships are all that matters here. Being in a big market is nice, but the Bulls represent LeBron’s best chance of winning by far. If that had been the only goal, he would have gone to Chicago. The Bulls, at that point, had the ability not only to join the James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh trio, but to pair them with an existing pool of young talent.
The citation (geographically incorrect)
“I am bringing my talents to The Loop and I will join the Chicago Bulls.”
How does the next decade of NBA history change?
Chicago’s talent roster is absolutely incredible. I have covered the exact machinations of the roster in more depth here, but these are the great traits: LeBron, Wade and Bosh all sign slightly below the maximum, but come as a sign of exchange in order to guarantee an extra year and increases higher on their contracts. Luol Deng is traded in another team’s hat space, but Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik can all stay with the Bulls. This gives Chicago arguably the most talented top five in NBA history. Bosh, a probable Hall of Famer, is the only starter to never finish in the top five of an MVP vote … and once finished seventh. With Tom Thibodeau who would train them at the height of his powers, they would have been a historically dominant defensive team.
The rest of the league is far behind the Bulls, and no other signs of 2010 pose a threat to them. Amar’e Stoudemire signs in New York, Carlos Boozer returns to Utah and the Heat arrive completely empty handed. Despite the Bulls’ spatial shortcomings, they are so athletically dominant that they win 68 games in their first season together and stand out through the Eastern Conference playoffs with a 12-1 record. The Dallas Mavericks are a bit more of a challenge in a six-game NBA Finals game, but the Bulls eventually come out on top as Rose steps forward to explain LeBron’s struggles.
The Bulls are just as good a year later, and by virtue of the fact that opponents have been expelled so easily, Rose does not remain on the floor at the end of the first game of their first round series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Therefore, he never snatches his ACL, and the Bulls repeat themselves against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but their incredible list is what ultimately creates their first real challenger. In fact, the Boston Celtics swapped Kendrick Perkins’ starting center for Thunder for Jeff Green at the 2011 deadline. They did so because the heat was light in size but extremely athletic. The Bulls, with Noah, Gibson and Asik completing Bosh, are much larger and Boston fails to close the deal. The chain effect here is enormous, as the money Oklahoma City owed to Perkins, whose value declined rapidly, was largely what prevented them from offering James Harden a maximum deal. No Perkins means that Thunder pays the maximum and the Bulls have their rival.
Chicago completes its three peat in a 2013 rematch against Thunder, but the dynasty quickly begins to dissolve from there. Wade’s creaking knees limit his effectiveness during the 2013-14 season. The league’s continued emphasis on filming begins to leave the bulls behind, as they are built largely around athletics. Asik leaves the agency for a new contract, and their depth is surprisingly reduced, thanks to the design choices surrendered in the signs and trades for their superstars (which include the first 2011 rounder that Chicago used on Jimmy Butler in reality) . After three championships, Pat Riley’s famous “disease of more” comes into play. Credit becomes difficult to obtain in a five-star team, and with a stellar Thunder team waiting for a third shot against them in the final, the Bulls finally abandon their throne in 2014.
In a staggering decision, James decides to leave Chicago too early rather than too late. He returns to Cleveland both to satisfy his desire to win a championship for his state of origin and to join a list full of that type of shot that the Bulls lacked. As successful as a bull, modernizing his game would be his best chance of continuing to win championships. Chicago keeps the rest of its core in place, hoping that a still healthy Rose can keep him in conflict. Once a blood clot is discovered in Bosh’s lung, however, any hope that the bulls are really fighting for another title disappears.
Kevin Durant’s Jones Fracture 2015 opens the door to new contenders, and as the Knights of LeBron return to the final, a first-round injury to Kevin Love and a subsequent injury to Kyrie Irving eventually deliver the title to the Golden State Warriors. Both Thunder and Cavaliers are healthy in 2016, however, and in a seven-game final full of record-breaking offensive performances, Cleveland wins his first championship in 52 years. In response, Durant signed with Golden State that summer. The Warriors beat the Cavs relatively easily in the 2017 and 2018 NBA finals, and James leaves Cleveland for the Los Angeles Lakers. The history of the NBA proceeds mainly as planned from there.
What about heat without LeBron? Their future is not nearly as bright. Miami bared its list for prisoners in an attempt to sign the stellar trio of James, Wade and Bosh, and once Chicago went in to steal all three, Miami had no choice but to tank. The worst record in the NBA during the 2010-11 season produced only choice no. 4 in the NBA draft of that year, and Tristan Thompson is not exactly a savior. They do much better in 2012, winning Bradley Beal in choice no. 3 overall, but Beal has never shown himself capable of leading a contending team.
The presence of Beal, together with the general organizational competence of Miami, eliminates the heat from the race for the best draft choices without turning them into the real contest. The best they can do to find a running mate for Beal is LaMarcus Aldridge in the free agency 2015, but while that duo makes the heat relevant, it is still very far from the caliber of the championship. During the 2010s, the Heat can’t compete for the NBA’s top prize. The same goes for any other team that has pursued LeBron.
Seven of the championships of the decade belong to Durant or James, transforming them into the version of their generation of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, and Durant’s injuries in 2015 and 2019 play an important role in enabling the solo championships won by Stephen Curry (2015) and Kawhi Leonard (2019). Leonard’s decision to team up with Paul George on the Clippers is based, at least in part, on the desire to break the LeBron-Durant duopoly.
Was this result better than LeBron’s reality?
Common sense dictates that it is slightly better simply because four leagues are greater than three. However, this scenario presents a number of anecdotal demerits. LeBron’s list in Chicago would be so dominant that some might simply refuse to give him credit for the championships. As epic as it would be a 2016 finale with Thunder fully loaded, no series could match the excitement of the 2016 NBA finals, and the blockade is so integral to James’ legacy now that removing it would be a little detrimental. In the end, this is a joke. Those who appreciate ring counting above all prefer this result to reality. The context favors the journey that LeBron has actually undertaken.
