David Richard / Associated Press
Nick Chubb has rushed 15 times inside the 5-yard line for the Browns last season. he lost a total of 14 yards on those carries while scoring only two touchdowns.
Of course, losing about two and a half feet per run when your team is counting on you for a touchdown is not good. And even if his numbers were particularly awful, Chubb was not alone: Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley and other battle horse racers struggled to produce short touchdowns last year. This is because the big backs can break your heart at the goal line, whether in fantasy football or the real thing.
Chubb rushed for 1,494 yards and eight touchdowns last season. He averaged 5.1 yards carry over his two-year NFL career. And at 227 pounds, it seems to have been custom built to make its way into the end zone in short film situations. However, he lost meters on nine rods inside the 5-meter line and was stuffed without gain on three others. In a forgettable game against the Bills in week 10, he rushed seven times near the goal line for less than four yards.
Now, the types of analysis (like me) know that there is almost no correlation between the size of the ball carrier, his level of talent and his performance near the goal line. In other words, short film production is essentially random, fluctuating from year to year, even for the best rushers, and the lean and fast backs often outweigh the big bruises or the featured backs. For example, 5’8 “Phillip Lindsay scored five touchdowns over eight races inside the 5-yard line for the Broncos last year. So when an otherwise awesome rusher like Chubb spends an entire year backing up from the goal line, it usually has little to do with it and a lot more to do with a) a bad attack line; b) a bad call play; and c) bad luck.
Chubb suffered from these three factors last year, especially bad calls. Browns coach Freddie Kitchens tried everything at the goal line, which was part of the problem: Chubb made short-distance transfers and pitches behind unbalanced lines, with tight ends playing from behind , receivers simulating ends, Baker Mayfield simulating bootlegs and sometimes with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. lead the block as if it were a pair of 310 pound tackles. The Browns themselves seemed to be more confused than the opposing defense with all the bells and whistles, so Chubb had no chance on most of his dives on the goal line.
Things should be better for Chubb now that Kevin Stefanski is setting up a more conventional attack, with improvements along the line, down the line and back. Dalvin Cook tied Ezekiel Elliott for the head of the league last year, with nine touchdowns inside the 5-yard line over 15 races, while operating in the Stefanski Vikings offense. But remember: the statistics on the goal line are almost random, so predicting a slight increase in touchdowns for Chubb is much more of a guess than a guarantee.
Chubb had the worst stats inside the 5-yard line of any ball carrier in 2019, but he was just a high-level member of last year’s All Stuffed Club: running backs featured who have gained zero meters or less over five or more goal-line ranges. The All Stuffed Club includes a fascinating mix of recruits, superstars and future Halls of Famers.
Ben Margot / Associated Press
Leonard Fournette: 8 goal-line ranges for -2 yards, 3 touchdowns
Fournette is a 1970s-style superstar trapped in a time when precipitation tactics in dust clouds are more likely to hurt a team than help them. Fournette tied Cook for fifth place in the NFL with 43 races in the red zone last year, but he gained 58 yards on those games. Putting Fournette in the scoring position on 1st and 10 was a reliable way to rank 2nd and 9.
Fournette’s goal line precipitation totals, which were poor at the start, were deflated by a two-game streak against the Jets in week 8. Fournette appeared to have scored a three-yard touchdown when he jumped over a defender and crashed into a few others. , but the referees declared that his forward progression had stopped before he reached the goal line. So he swept the next room, didn’t find daylight, attempted a Marcus Allen style reduction, and got himself stuffed for a loss of seven.
Before blaming Fournette for his goal line failures, watch this two point conversion attempt and decide for yourself whether his effort or the game-blocking / blocking is to blame.
Sport sheet @SportsPlug_
The Jaguars decide to leave for two … and the victory … but Leonard Fournette is CHANGED by the Texans.???? #JAXvsHOU https://t.co/MGU6SaKlAZ
Barkley Saquon: 7 goal line spans for -1 yard, 1 touchdown
Barkley scored five touchdowns on 16 rushes inside the 5-yard line as a rookie in 2018; these are typical figures for a featured shredder. But Barkley was injured for part of the last year, the Giants were not often in a position to score. And with rookie Daniel Jones under the center, Pat Shurmur called Saquon in the gut first, crossed his fingers and hoped for the best.
Say what you think of the Giants’ new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, but he doesn’t complicate matters. Elliott led the NFL with 59 races in the red zone and 11 touchdowns last year, including nine touchdowns in 12 races within the 5-yard line. Goal line production can be random, but goal line opportunities are largely dictated by the offensive coach or coordinator. Saquon will have the chance to score a few short touchdowns; if he is as productive as Zeke or Go Full Chubb will be decided by forces beyond his control.
Miles Sanders: 6 goal line spans for -1 yards, 2 touchdowns
The substitute / substitute for the University of Saquon is not really a big back (he is listed at 211 pounds), but he is part of the All Stuffed team because he came back close to the line of goal and plans to star in the Eagles this season.
An interesting note: the late season emergency rusher Boston Scott scored four touchdowns in four races within the 5-yard line. Scott is only 5’6 ” and 203 pounds. Size really doesn’t matter at the goal line.
Adrian Kraus / Associated Press
Frank Gore: 11 litters on the goal line for 0 yards, 2 touchdowns
Josh Allen can’t throw 60 yards on the field from the 1-yard line, but the Bills coaches may have been afraid to try. If they thought Dad’s experience and strength would propel Gore to dirt, they were wrong: Gore rushed eight times from the 1-yard line himself last year, scoring two touchdowns but being stuffed without gain five times (twice in the third third) and once for a loss.
Allen, meanwhile, scored five touchdowns on five rushes within the 5-yard line and eight touchdowns on 11 rushes within the 10-yard line. He can be a more reliable defender of the goal line than most runners.
Gore could resume his goal line role this year for the Jets. He will share the backfield with Le’Veon Bell, who rushed just five times inside the 5-yard line for three touchdowns last season. Bell’s totals were low because the Jets were rarely in a position to score and Adam Gase makes game decisions based on who is in his personal niche. Before writing Gore as a fancy handcuff or a late sleeper, read this last sentence carefully.
Before closing the door on our tour of big disappointing backs, let’s look at a sudden workaholic who seems to have the nose for short film touchdowns. Todd Gurley scored six touchdowns in 12 races last year, nine touchdowns in 18 races in 2018 and nine identical touchdowns in 18 races in 2017. A 50% success rate over three seasons of heavy use at the goal line is incredibly rare.
Despite this impressive history, analysis indicates that there is no reason to expect Gurley to repeat his goal line success in Atlanta. After last season’s fade, it’s no surprise that it’s just another big back with the potential to break your heart.
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