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With less than six weeks of Week 1 of the NFL Regular Season, I still have no idea if there will actually be a Week 1, and even if it does happen, I don’t know if there will be. really fans and I have no idea who will be on the pitch because of all the opt-outs, but you know what, the title promised you picks, so I’m going to give you some picks.
Welcome to our Week 1 picks and bets far too early. I’m optimistic so I’m going to assume week 1 is going to be played which is why you get these picks. While there are 16 games played in week 1, I won’t pick them all here. Instead, I narrowed down the season opener pool to three best bets.
So what exactly does this mean?
This means that if I were to find myself in Las Vegas in August, the three games below are the games I would absolutely bet on. This is my third year betting at the start of week 1, and apparently early betting is the only thing in life I’m really good at. Over the last couple of years I’ve gone 6-0 straight and 5-1 ATS with my first bets, so obviously you’re going to want to write those bets down and call your bookie as soon as you ‘ve finished reading.
Alright, let’s get to the betting.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets
All ratings via William Hill
Chiefs (-10) vs. Texans
If you are considering betting on this game I would bet it now, as there is a good chance that the points spread will only increase between now and Week 1, no matter how many Kansas City players are end up staying away. season. The Chiefs will return 18 of 22 starters in 2020, and that includes the fact that their starting running back and starting right guard have already decided to skip the season (Chiefs play note: unless the offensive line of Patrick Mahomes or Kansas City decides to do it) sit the season, I won’t bet against the Chiefs in this game).
If you’re hesitant to bet the Chiefs as a 10 point favorite here, I totally understand why. Besides the churns, there’s also the fact that they trailed 24-0 against the Texans in a playoff game last year, and that says such a disaster won’t happen in this game. In fact, I will say: a disaster like this is not going to happen in this game.
The Texans took that big lead because everything was impossible: they had a 54-yard touchdown pass, they returned a blocked punt for a touchdown, and they recovered a smothered punt on the six-yard line. Kansas City to create another. landing. Last year’s divisional playoff game between these two teams had perhaps the most bizarre streak of events in any first quarter in NFL history and I have to think the Chiefs will do whatever it takes. is in their power to ensure that this does not happen again.
The Chiefs will want to prove that the 24-0 lead was a fluke and I fully believe they are going to push the score up over the Texans, which means this game will almost certainly turn into a shootout, but a one-sided shootout, because the Texans won’t be able to keep up. Houston’s biggest offensive weapon in last season’s playoff game was DeAndre Hopkins and he’s not on the squad anymore, so Houston got worse at receiver and they have a running back who can’t stay healthy. (David Johnson).
As for the Chiefs, they’ll come into Game 1 with an offense that led the AFC in passing yards last season and the Texans will try to stop that with a defense that didn’t know how to stop the pass last year. (The Texans surrendered 267.3 yards per pass per game last season, which was the worst in the AFC and fourth in the NFL).
Plus, Andy Reid is almost unbeatable when he has extra time to prepare for a game, and he’ll have had all of the offseason to prepare for it. Not only is he 18-3 with a pass, he’s been 9-2 at the start of the season for the past 11 years (7-4 ATS). This game could become the biggest blast in week 1.
Verdict: The leaders win and cover themselves.
Lions (-1.5) vs. bears
Last year, one of the easiest ways to make money playing the NFL was to bet against the Lions. In the final 11 weeks of the season, the Lions have only gone 2-9 ATS, meaning if you bet against them, you probably now live on an island in the Caribbean and have a small fortune on your bank account. I mean, look at the tweet below, this person’s whole strategy to become a millionaire is based on betting against Lions.
Normally, I would say it’s a good strategy, but not this year, and that’s because I actually think the Lions could be a winning bet … at least in week 1.
Due to the fact that the Lions ended the season with a horrible record last season (3-12-1), it’s easy to forget that this team was actually pretty good at the start of the year. On the one hand, they not only started the season 2-0-1, but it took them a crazy game against the Chiefs before suffering their first loss (34-30).
With a healthy Matthew Stafford under center, I actually think the Lions could end up having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in 2020. On the other hand, that’s no guarantee, because I’m not even quite sure Stafford even wants him to play more for the team.
That being said, my decision to bet on the Lions here is more of a bet against the Bears.
In Week 1, the Bears will ride with Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky as the starting quarterback. The problem with Foles is that learning a whole new offensive system isn’t an easy thing to do and it’s nearly impossible when you have to learn it during a pandemic with just six weeks of practice. Basically, if Foles starts out, I don’t think he’ll have a full mastery of the offense just yet. On the other hand, if Trubisky is starting, well, let’s be honest, we’ve all seen him play before. If I bet on Lions, maybe I want Trubisky to start.
Another thing I don’t like about the Bears is that they’ve lost six straight regular season opener. I’ll bet the Lions in this game, unless Matthew Stafford decides not to make the season, then I might change my mind.
Verdict: The Lions win and cover.
Steelers (-3.5) at Giants
If there’s a Week 1 game that looks like a disaster waiting for the home side, this is it. On paper – and in real life – this game feels like a total mismatch, and that’s mainly because the Giants ‘offense has a bunch of weaknesses that the Steelers’ defense is perfectly suited to take advantage of.
During the 2019 season, the Giants’ offensive line struggled to protect Daniel Jones. The Giants quarterback was sacked an average of 3.17 times per start last season, which was the third most in the NFL. If you’re a Giants fan, that number should worry you, and that’s because New York will face a Steelers defense that led the NFL in the sacks last year. Oh, and did I mention that the 2019 Giants’ starting left tackle (Nate Solder) opted out of the 2020 season?
If I knew for sure that New York’s offensive line was going to be better in 2020, it might change my mind about betting on the Steelers, but to be fair their line might be worse in Week 1 than it does. was all last year. . The Giants’ opening tackles will likely be first-round pick Andrew Thomas, who will be making his first career start, and Nate Solder. Wait, I’ll take that back, the Giants won’t have Solder because he’s decided not to play this season, which means the Giants are going to have new starters in both right and left tackle. There’s a 100% chance that TJ Watt is already mouth watering.
With the offensive line struggling for most of last season, that meant Jones spent much of the year running for his life, and while that was going he didn’t do a good job. protection of football. Jones dropped the ball 18 times in 12 starts last year, which isn’t ideal when you’re up against the defense that has led the NFL in breakaways.
This game is also going to give us a Super Bowl-winning coach (Mike Tomlin) against a first-year head coach (Joe Judge) who will have barely had four weeks of practice on the field with his team before this game has taken. location. Advantage: Tomlin.
I’m still not sure if Ben Roethlisberger is going to be perfectly healthy for this game, but I’m not sure that will matter. If the Steelers can score 20 points I think it’ll probably be enough to win and cover.
Verdict: The Steelers win and cover.
