Mavericks probability to rise from n. 7? Let’s break it down here

So we all want to know what the Mavericks’ chances are of causing harm when the playoffs arrive in just over two weeks.

More precisely: could they steal one in this crazy, disconnected and completely open season? A series? A championship?

So-called experts believe the Mavericks are a year or two away from being truly legitimate championship material.

Maybe.

Give Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson a couple of offseason to surround Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis with some additional firepower and anything is possible.

But that doesn’t mean they can’t do something big in the next two months. The first signs indicate the usual reasons for optimism: score and chemistry.

And the three scrimmages also showed some consistent problem areas that are all too familiar: defense, physicality and rebound.

It is true that it is dangerous to try to glean too much from the scrimmages. Preseason games are called exhibitions for a reason. They don’t always show real signs of what a team is. However, the three scrimmages showed cause for concern.

And as the Mavericks begin their eight seeding games with a game perhaps with the NBA’s smallest team – the Houston Rockets – the physical problems they’ve had against Philadelphia, Indiana and LA Lakers are annoying to coach Rick Carlisle.

Although . . .

“It’s a challenge that I think is good for us at this point,” he said. “Because as we head towards the eight seeding games, I think all of these games will be physical.”

They are usually closer to the league in the playoffs. And they will be here in no time. The Mavericks hope to trace back from seed n. 7 they own after the season was abruptly stopped on March 11th due to the coronavirus.

The bottom line for the Mavericks is that most of their heavy lifters have no playoff experience, or very limited experience. So nobody really knows how Doncic, Porzingis, Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith will react when the playoffs start and the whistles stop.

Everyone has already played in high-stakes games. But the NBA playoffs are only slightly different.

And so, the key to the Mavericks is to get up as much as possible in the eight seeding games. The N. 7 equates to a death sentence in the first round. On paper, however.

Nobody wants to play the Los Clippers in the first round. Or the LAkers for that matter.

If you manage to rise to number 6 or higher in the Western Conference, it will give you a legitimate chance to exit the first round, which would turn this season into a great success story for the Mavericks.

Also, getting two rounds of experience in the playoffs for Doncic and Porzingis would be invaluable.

Of course, the other side of that is that if you ultimately have to beat the Lakers or Clippers (or both) to get where you want to go, then why not face them in the first round and take your chances?

Both scenarios will be difficult, no matter which one.

But before getting to the playoffs, the Mavericks have to go around the eight games to finish the regular season.

The best way to do this, of course, is to win as many of those games as possible and go up the ladder.

Start with Houston, tied with Oklahoma City for fifth and sixth places in the West directly ahead of the Mavericks.

Obviously, winning that opening game gives the Mavericks a much improved chance of getting past the Rockets.

A loss means that they would need to win three more games in the last seven games than the Rocket.

Not impossible, but certainly the odds are stacked against it.

At the very least, the Mavericks probably have to win six of their eight seeding games to have a legitimate shot at the passing of Houston, OKC or Utah, which is a scant fraction ahead of the Rockets and Thunder.

So, the fun begins. The Mavericks are ready. Too much time has passed since 11 March.

Twitter: @ESefko