For television networks and sports media that cover the league, this has been welcome. But as the calendar draws closer to July, with the opening of NFL training camps at the end of the month, doubts have surfaced about the viability of the football season. Coronavirus cases are increasing in the states of the country. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, said that soccer players may need to be in a bubble environment for the season to play. Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay wondered aloud how the teams could play and take precautions.
“I mean, we’re going social, but are we playing football?” McVay said in a recent media appearance. “It’s really difficult for me to understand all of this.”
While there is still a lot of optimism, the NFL will play – in one way or another – the networks are now set on the league’s fall schedule, given its dominant position as television property America’s most precious. They are invested, of course, in the expected returns of Major League Baseball, the NBA and other sports, but none have the importance of the NFL, which represented 41 of the 50 best television programs of any kind in 2019. Lack of certainty led to uncomfortable conversations between executives.
“It’s pretty much the only thing that worries the networks,” said John Kosner, a former ESPN executive who is now an industry consultant. “If you’ve lost an NFL season, you’re considering a financial hemorrhage.”
The four networks that broadcast the NFL – CBS, ESPN, Fox and NBC – declined to comment on the emergency plans or their vision for the 2020 season. But a senior ESPN employee recently lamented that there were not even a fallback plan to consider if the NFL can’t play, as nothing can replace the content or income that comes with it, according to someone familiar with the discussion. At least one executive at Fox Sports told an employee that no NFL season would cause network problems, according to several people familiar with the discussion.
No network is more dependent on the NFL than Fox, which pays more than $ 1.5 billion each year for two NFL packages: one on Sunday afternoon and the other on Thursday evening. The NFL, including pre- and post-game coverage, accounted for almost 40% of the minutes spent watching the network last year, according to research firm MoffettNathanson.
For the other broadcasting partners in the league, the NFL’s share of the minutes watched was smaller, but still 10 to 13 percent heavy last year. ESPN pays about $ 2 billion for “Monday Night Football”, CBS pays about $ 1 billion for its Sunday package, and NBC pays $ 950 million for “Sunday Night Football”. All of them bring massive amounts of publicity for their NFL games.
Data compiled by the advertising measurement firm iSpot illustrates the value of the league in terms of advertising dollars. Last season, CBS raised approximately $ 1.5 billion in NFL advertising, which represents almost 25% of the network’s total advertising campaigns for 2019 (excluding Super Bowl). NBC raised nearly $ 1.5 billion, more than 20% of the network’s advertising dollars for the past year.
Fox was the most addicted to the NFL, earning nearly $ 2 billion in league games last season, not counting the Super Bowl – an amount that would represent 40% of the network’s total advertising revenue as of 2019. In addition , advertisers who purchase games in the NFL often also have to purchase packages for other programs through a network’s calendar.
NFL figures at ESPN were slightly lower – about $ 500 million and less than 20% of its advertising revenue – but they’re not nearly grasping the importance of NFL highlights and discussion segments for studio programming of the 24 hour cable network. ESPN is also the network most likely to be affected by a canceled or shortened college football season, which health experts say is more at risk than the NFL due to its lack of central authority, variable testing policies and uncertainty over whether students will be able to return to campus this fall. ESPN and its Disney-owned broadcast partner, ABC, received more than $ 1 billion in sport advertising revenue last year.
The NBA and MLB are more important to regional sports networks. The entire MLB season and playoffs delivered less than $ 700 million to national broadcasters ESPN, Fox, Turner and MLB Network in 2019. The 2018 NBA season and overall playoffs 2019 represented a total of around $ 1.5 billion for ESPN, ABC, Turner and NBA. Network, according to iSpot.
Since the start of the pandemic, ESPN, Fox and NBC have asked the best talent to take down wages because they have been on the water waiting for the return of sports. Current and former executives have predicted much more draconian developments without an NFL season – from layoffs to serious cost savings to networks forced to take out large loans. A former Fox executive predicted that studio broadcasts would be hit the hardest.
“As the recent COVID-19 data points become increasingly negative, there is growing concern that the expected return of all sports in the coming weeks and fall will be impacted in different ways, that will increase the pain of our media companies, “read a MoffettNathanson report released in late June.
In the longer term, said David Hill, a former president of Fox Sports, missing an NFL season hurts broadcast networks in their battle for relevance against streaming services such as Netflix. Their main advantage in this fight, said Hill, remains the NFL, and the sport continues to be one of the main drivers for consumers who pay for cables. According to MoffettNathanson, conventional pay television subscriptions fell 1.8 million in the first quarter of this year, with the pandemic hitting and most live sports canceled. It is the highest string cutting rate ever recorded in a single quarter.
“The NFL is absolutely essential because it plays into the essence of what the network is,” said Hill. “It is becoming the only way for networks to speak to consumers. If families are sitting in their living rooms watching the streamers – and not activating networks for the NFL – there will be less awareness of everything they do. “
Regardless of whether the NFL season continues, the league broadcast agreements are set to expire in 2021 and 2022, which means that the same networks will have to compensate for what many observers expect many observers will. ‘expect significant fee increases – potentially up to double the current amount. some industry insiders believe it – even if they are potentially jostling to correct budget gaps for the current year. This week, Fox terminated its broadcast agreement with the US Open golf tournament several years earlier, a move that indicates a new commitment to its main properties, the most important of which is the NFL.
“If you miss the NFL season, I think it makes the networks even more desperate to sign it again,” said Hill.
Yet, aside from the worrying worry about what a lost season could do to the networks, there is hope for what a season could mean. Given the high marks for the project, as well as the possibility that fans may not be allowed to attend the games and that people may still be limited in what they can do outside, there remains the chance that 2020 could be a record year for NFL broadcasts.
Hill has said that, regardless of the uncertainty that exists now and in the weeks to come, he thinks the NFL will find a way to play its season.
“It is one of the very few absolutely essential items,” he said. “And I imagine everyone being locked up would be good for them too.”
