It’s hard to know what to expect when the NBA seeding games start on Thursday. The four-month hiatus lasted longer than a normal offseason and the games will be played in an environment we have never seen before. Orlando coaches can go deep into their benches to get stellar players back into action. There are two playoff points up for grabs in every conference, while the absence of the home field advantage makes seeding less important.
But there is still a lot to play in the next two weeks. While Bucks and Lakers are almost blocked by the no. 1 suit, the order of the seven teams behind each of them is confused. There are no first round matchups put in stone at the start of the restart. Here are four that I’m cheering to see:
76ers vs. Heat
The heat appears destined for no. 4 seeds, sitting 2.5 games behind the Celtics and two games in front of 76ers and Pacers. Nobody knows what will happen with Indiana, who may not have Victor Oladipo or Domantas Sabonis, after the latter left the bubble with a foot injury. If the Pacers vanish along the way, it could create a 4-5 bloodbath between two teams that expect to contend for the title.
A 76ers-Heat series could be the NBA version of a pink slip game in wrestling. In one corner, the pairing of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. In the other, Jimmy Butler’s reputation. Only one could survive.
The 76ers are still looking for the right mix around two stars that can’t keep the floor apart. The Big Four with Butler and Tobias Harris didn’t work last season, nor did they swap Butler for Al Horford and Josh Richardson. Philadelphia’s top floor is to kick Shake Milton to the position guard, move Simmons forward and Horford on the bench. This is the deepest register of the era of Embiid and Simmons. There is no excuse if this time they lose early in the post season. Most people across the league expect the Embiid-Simmons duo to eventually melt. Losing your old teammate could speed up that process. (Sorry.)
The Heat, like the 76ers, must find the right combination around two stars (Butler and Bam Adebayo) who cannot fire in 3 seconds. Unlike Philly, they prioritized shooting in their supporting cast to make up for the difference, but that leaves them relying on players like Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson who can be attacked in defense. Miami has used more areas than any other team in the league to hide them.
The Heat have a 3-1 lead in the season series against the Sixers, including a December win when they returned with a zone. Even an elite defender like Adebayo can struggle to protect someone as big as Embiid, but it doesn’t matter if the 76er center can’t find teammates open through double teams and can’t take open shots.
Heat could have as many scoring problems. Embiid and Simmons can close the pick-and-roll between Butler and Adebayo, the foundation of their offense. The former can take down the two Miami stars and challenge them to shoot, knowing that neither of them will be able to overcome him on the edge, while the latter is the rare perimeter defender who can change the screen between the two.
Butler has burned bridges wherever he went under the premise of being a fortune teller who only cares about winning. But there isn’t much evidence that he really knows how to do it. He has never been to a conference finals and has only won two playoff series out of three teams in the past six seasons. He is still looking for a decisive playoff moment. He had a chance in game 7 against Toronto last season, but scored 16 points against Kawhi Leonard’s 41. Butler is a thirty year old whose game is based on athletics. It doesn’t have many possibilities.
Rockets vs. Thunder
There is a crowd in the middle of the West, with four games that separate the Nuggets to the no. 3 and the Mavs at no. 7. The result is a dizzying number of potential series in the first round. But a dream scenario stands out above the rest.
James Harden and Russell Westbrook have some nasty losses in their playoff resumes, but nobody would come close to losing Chris Paul after exiling him to Oklahoma City. Houston coach Mike D’Antoni, who is in the final season of his contract, would almost certainly not survive the consequences.
The Rockets’ ultra small-ball formations are one of the largest wild cards in the Western Conference playoffs. We have never seen an elite team completely abandon the central position and play anyone taller than 6 feet-7 in their rotation. But it has worked so far. Westbrook has taken advantage of the extra space in the paint to score as a mini Wilt Chamberlain (31.7 points with 54.6% shooting) in 11 games since Houston changed Clint Capela to Robert Covington.
How would Oklahoma City respond in a playoff series? The first option is to cheer up those small formations with Steven Adams. He is not a top scorer, but he is an elite shooter and an offensive bouncer who could punish converted wings like PJ Tucker and Jeff Green. The question for Houston is whether they perform isolations for Harden and Westbrook and let Adams hide in defense, or involve him in pick-and-roll that would force the ball out of their stars’ hands.
Thunder plan B would be downsizing. Three guard formations with Paul, Dennis Schröder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have been among the most dominant in the NBA this season. The lack of great men in Houston means that Oklahoma City can get away with playing in the center Danilo Gallinari, a 6 foot and 10 offensive Swiss army knife. Using Gallinari in that role was one of the keys to the Clippers’ surprisingly competitive exhibition against the Warriors last year. season.
Rockets would be favored in both ways. But I’d better put the games away early. Paul has been the most attacked player in the NBA this season. The series could understand if it is capable of making better pick-and-roll shots than Harden can isolate. The two represent conflicting philosophies about basketball on how the game should be played. And there is absolutely no love lost between them. Paul will probably never win a title with Thunder. Sending Harden home would be a sweet consolation.
Lakers vs. Pelicans
This is the series that the NBA desperately wants. But a lot must go well for this to happen. Pelicans must hold off another four teams for the no. 9 seeds, stay within four games of the eighth seed Grizzlies (they are currently 3.5 behind), then win two games in a row to actually achieve the postseason. The good news is that Zion Williamson has returned and tested negative after an apologetic absence from the NBA bubble.
There is a lot of intrigue in the relationship (or lack of one) between LeBron and Zion. Reminds me of the dynamic between King Saul and David in the Bible. David was Saul’s best general, and he was even married to his daughter, but Saul always kept him at a distance. He knew that David was marked for greatness. It wouldn’t have made it easier for him to get the throne.
LeBron sent a message to Sion in his two games against him before the NBA closed, averaging 37 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists against the pelicans. New Orleans tried Jrue Holiday with him in the first encounter and Brandon Ingram in the second. Neither had the combination of length, speed and strength to disturb the four-time MVP.
Williamson was Duke’s elite defender, where he averaged 2.1 rubles and 1.8 blocks per game, but that aspect of his game didn’t translate into the NBA. As dominant as he was in attack after his debut in January, he seemed out of shape and a slow pace in defense. The hope is that all the weight he lost during the break will help him on that end of the floor.
Zion guarding LeBron in the playoffs would break social media, but there would be many other intriguing plots even if that never happens. With Anthony Davis, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball all facing their former teams, this series could become the first installment of a budding NBA rivalry.
Mavericks Vs. Nuggets
This series may be the closest thing to EuroBasket 2020.
One of the funniest games this season was a Nuggets 107-106 win against the Mavs in January, in which Jokic (33 points, seven rebounds and six assists) beat Luka Doncic (27 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists). . The two clever stars both have the ability to light up opposing teams without ever leaving their feet. Jokic scored historically large numbers (25.1 points with 50.6 percent shooting, 13 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game) in his playoff debut last season. Now it’s Luka’s turn.
It won’t look like much pressure for a player who was the EuroLeague Final Four MVP at the age of 18. The only thing Doncic has yet to demonstrate is how it will go in a series of playoffs against the NBA’s long and uber athletic types who don’t normally play in Europe. But that wouldn’t matter against any playoff opponent: the Nuggets don’t start anyone taller than 6 feet-6 on the perimeter.
Kristaps Porzingis would have had a much more difficult playoff debut in this scenario. He came strong after a slow start in Dallas, but there are still doubts about the team’s decision to use a 7-foot player as a shooting guard. Porzingis would have his hands full to guard Jokic and be supervised by Paul Millsap, a high-level elite defender even at 35 years old.
Denver’s microscope player is Jamal Murray. He had some great games on his playoff debut last season, but fell in love with Game 7 against Portland, shooting 4 of 18 in defeat. Mavs do not have perimeter caps to close Murray. It must produce.
Although neither of the two emerging teams is ready enough to win the West, this series could help decide who will have the next one, and provide many highlights along the way.
