As the NFL continues to evolve, so too does our analysis of fantasy. In 2007, NFL offenses had three or more wide receivers on the field for only 55% of all passes. The number hit a historic high of 76% in 2016 and was still high at 73% last season. The dramatic change in staff usage has led to fewer “wasted” shots on the rear (multi-BR sets went from 27% to 9% over time) and more usage and targets for wide receivers that were once considered bench players but are now de facto starters in most regimes.
By assessing the staff usage of each team and each coach, we can determine which player accounts will get a boost and which will see a dip. Of course, it’s not as simple as just looking at the numbers from last season, as the rollover on the roster (and especially the coach changes) will certainly have an effect. Nonetheless, we have proposed a projection of how often each team’s offense will have at least three wide receivers on the field in 2020, as well as an overview of the individual players most affected in terms of fantastic value. This assessment of each offensive plan can give you a head start on your league mates on the draft day.
Note: The references to three-plus-WR sets in this article refer only to passing games. The asterisks “*” represent the intended offensive player for each team.
1. Miami Dolphins: HC: Brian Flores, OC: Chan Gailey, * 3+ WR sets screened: 85%
.
