Royce Freeman got more hits in his second year, but he was still RB2 behind Phillip Lindsay in 2019, just like in 2018. Lindsay (224) and Freeman (132) combined for all but one of a carry for the Broncos 2019. Andy Janovich had it transported. If you count Andrew Beck as FB, he also had a carryover.
Royce Freeman was a Broncos third round selection in 2018 (71st overall).
COME BACK
# 28
Experience: 3 years
Size: 6-0
Age: 24
Weight: 238 lbs
University: Oregon
Freeman ran out of time in his rookie campaign due to an ankle injury and does not seem to be fully recovering in 2018. He touched the ball 144 times in 2018 and 175 times in 2019. He was a great deal more involved in the passing game in 2019 with 50 targets and 43 catches (compared to 20 and 14 in 2018). Her yards per carry went from 4.0 in 2018 to 3.8 in 2019. The average carry in the NFL in 2019 was 4.3 yards. This means that Freeman was 0.5 meters below average.
Good
Freeman is a great ball carrier. It is listed at 238 pounds, but it seems heavier than that. There are times when you need a massive backtrack to crush a defender and win that extra half of a yard. During his career, Freeman has carried the ball 42 times in short film situations (3 yards or less required). He obtained the first downs (or touchdowns) on 25 of these litters (59.9%) – including 5 TDs. It sounds pretty good until you realize that the short course league average has been 64.8% in the past two seasons. Freeman was therefore below average in short distance situations (this includes goalline racing).
So how did he compare to Lindsay? Lindsay converted on 66.1%. This represents a conversion on 39 of the 59 short films – including 10 for touchdowns. But I guess there are times when Freeman, who weighs about 50 pounds more than Lindsay, would be useful as a ball carrier.
Freeman was much better in the passing game than Lindsay. Not only was he a better pass blocker than Lindsay (see my last bag blame article), he was much safer (and in my eyes, a better road runner). Freeman only lost two assists in 2019 – on 50 targets. Lindsay dropped six assists on 48 targets.
The bad
Royce Freeman became a plowman with a limited ability to break tackles or extend runs. His vision seems to have deteriorated and he hasn’t shown much promise in terms of extended runs since his rookie season before his injury. Freeman had a carry of 20 or more yards in 2019. He had 13 carries for 10 or more yards. Thus, 10% of his runs went over 10 yards or more, but only 0.8% of his runs were over 20 or more.
By comparison, Lindsay had seven out of 20 or more and 22 out of 10 or more. Like Freeman, only 10% of Lindsay’s litters went for 10 or more, but 3.1% went for 20 or more. In 2019, Lindsay therefore had four times more frequencies of 20 yards than Freeman. FWIW Melvin Gordon produced 162 litters in 2019 and only two of his litters went for 20 yards or more (1.2%) while 14 went for 10 or more (8.6%). Gordon is not a good comparison as he was playing behind a different offensive line than Freeman and Gordon held out for part of the year in 2019. That said, I don’t assume Gordon will be the short film in 2020 simply because he’s taller than Lindsay and more offbeat than Freeman.
My opinion
Pat Shurmur does not generally distribute the litters between two runners. He is more of an old school game player in that he likes to give his main RB the lion’s share. He could change his approach with Lindsay and Gordon, but that leaves Royce Freeman in the cold. If it was a normal year, I would expect Freeman to be introduced during the preseason to increase its commercial value. Since there will be no pre-season, I doubt that Freeman has too much commercial value and I would be delighted if the Broncos could get a choice of 4th or 5th round in exchange for him.
If we don’t trade it, I don’t expect him to make the list. He hasn’t played any special teams in his first two seasons, so he doesn’t even have that for him. There are currently six defenders on the Bronco list. During his last stint as an offensive coordinator, Shurmur kept two to four halves on the roster of 53 players. It wouldn’t surprise me if Freeman was traded and Shurmur only kept Gordon and Lindsay on the 55-man list, but the calculations on the list could be a little different this year with the pandemic. I expect anyone who is RB3 or RB4 to play in special teams.
For a larger ball carrier, the Broncos also have Jeremy Cox, who the team signed for a reserve / futures contract in late 2019. Cox is listed at 6-0, 226 pounds.
