Because aiming for the big favorites of the NBA playoffs could be a failure in 2020

To what extent will the coronavirus pandemic, “bubble life” and a 141-day layoff affect the NBA playoffs? Every basketball bettor asks this question. Those uncertainties and uncertainties are why I think long shots have a better chance of raising a championship banner than ever before in the league’s 73-year history.

The betting favorite prevails in the NBA postseason more than any other popular betting sport. This comes from a combination of a best-of-seven format, home court advantage and a perception of the domestic crowds swaying the officers. All this lends itself to a more predictable and truer result than the single elimination formats of football and March Madness. Other sports in a series are also heavily influenced by extreme variance, such as an NHL goalkeeper or MLB starter.

The Los Angeles Lakers are the favorites in the consensus league, with odds in the +275 neighborhood. Milwaukee Bucks and LA Clippers have similar offers – around 3-1 – to form a higher level of true contenders. Every other team has at least 12-1 odds, as champagne celebrations are typically reserved for the elite. Since sowing began in 1983, 31 of the 36 champions have entered the playoffs as 1 seed or 2 seeds.

In the past nine postseason of the NBA, the top three suits have gone on to the second round in 49 of the 54 series of the first round. Check out some of the moneylines from last season’s first round series. The Golden State Warriors with the best seeds were -50,000 favorites over the Clippers. The dollars were -10,000 against the Detroit pistons and the Toronto Raptors were -1,400 compared to the magic of Orlando.

Meanwhile, the biggest MLB favorite was -300, and the NHL had a perceived discrepancy with the Tampa Bay Lightning (-400) against the Columbus Blue Jackets. However, Tampa Bay has actually been swept. Even with a goodbye to the first round in the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs still had a 4-1 chance of winning the Super Bowl. NCAA tournament favorite Duke had three of the NBA’s top 10 picks, but Cesare still offered +255 to the selection on Sunday. The second favorite was Gonzaga at +550 and neither reached the Final Four.

The 2019 season featured the championship races of the St. Louis Blues and Washington Nationals. St. Louis was the lowest seed in all series except one but raised the Stanley Cup behind goalkeeper Jordan Binnington’s goalkeeper, who was called up during the season. The Nats hosted a wild card game and then won as the road lost in the next three rounds. World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg and three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer both shone, each starting two of Washington’s four Fall Classic wins.

The NBA is just different. But 2020 is unprecedented and therefore could level a playing field that is anything but leveled. Start with the neutral court. The Bucks are inexplicably -230 favorites to win the Eastern Conference, but that price was -220 in March before the pandemic – and under the assumption that Milwaukee would have an internal advantage.

“The Bucks were the team whose odds suffered most from the pandemic, based on my model,” colleague ESPN and professional bettor told ESPN. In his projections, Milwaukee wins the championship 12.5% ​​of the times less with the bubble than if the virus had never interrupted the season.

Another contributing factor is the delay of almost five months. “They have always been good at resting their stars. Giannis [Antetokounmpo] he’s the best player and he hasn’t even played 31 minutes per game, “said Johnson, also explaining how any Milwaukee playoff opponents would have had to record more intense minutes to reach the postseason. before the playoffs would have been advantageous, but this pandemic allowed all teams to rest.

The layoff also helped organizations restore health. The Philadelphia 76ers now have All-Stars Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons at full strength – the two were unsure of the pre-pandemic playoffs. Personally, I think they are a tempting joker at 25-1 to win the title and 7-1 to win the East. Milwaukee’s main competition – Boston Celtics (5-1), Toronto Raptors (7-1) and Miami Heat (10-1) – all now have a better chance of winning the conference than before the pandemic.

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Shake Milton throws the lob to Ben Simmons, who crushes it at home with two hands.

The Lakers (+135 at Caesars Sportsbook) and Clippers (+150) sit high on the Western Conference table, but the Houston Rockets (6-1) and Denver Nuggets (9-1) present potential matchup headaches. Additionally, the Portland Trail Blazers (35-1) will be healthy for the first time throughout the season, welcoming Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins, but they still have a lot of work to do to reach the playoffs too.

And of course, the giant unpredictability of the coronavirus looms large. The NBA has taken extreme measures to isolate and protect players in the Orlando bubble. However, if a player is positive, he is prohibited from training for 14 days; to return to action, he must pass a cardiac exam and produce two negative COVID-19 tests over a 24-hour period. And when you break it down, given the random nature of the potential broadcast, the best player on a team is as likely to contract the virus as the worst player. Therefore, it makes no sense to bet the favorites, especially on a neutral field.

That said, it may not matter in the end. The favorites could easily reach the NBA finals – and perhaps the aforementioned obstacles will make that path more difficult, rather than producing real upheavals. After all, the nature of basketball is undeniable, given the increase in the number of goods in recent seasons, which lend themselves to a truer result. It is similar to the logic that you are more likely to get an average result of 50% head more frequently flip a coin.

But 2020 was not exactly the year of logic and predictability.