Nick Wass / Associated Press
Point production is the easiest way to see a player influence victory.
But point prevention means the same – or even more, if you subscribe to the theory of defense-victory championships – for the success of the NBA. It’s just that a great defense often takes place in the subtleties of this sport and, despite statistical progress in this analytical era, there is still no great way to measure defensive dominance.
Scouts are monitoring the less glamorous part, however, and will carry out that research once the 2020 free agency market opens. Knowing this, let’s take a closer look at some of the best caps available this low season and predict where they will fit next season.
Kris Dunn, Chicago Bulls (limited)
Originally drafted fifth in 2016 by Minnesota Timberwolves and swapped the following summer in a package for Jimmy Butler, Dunn spent his first three seasons searching for his NBA niche.
He found it in his fourth round. Reproposed as a defender entirely in an aggressive scheme of coach Jim Boylen, Dunn quickly climbed the ladder of the main perimeter caps. ESPN’s true defensive plus-minus assigned him to fifth overall and second place among the guards. FiveThirtyEight’s defensive RAPTOR ranked Dunn seventh in the league and again second among backcourt players.
“He’s an all-defensive defender if I’ve ever seen one and I’ve seen a few,” Boylen told reporters. “Paul George, Kawhi Leonard. He is a defensive boy.”
Dunn does not pose an offensive threat. He may be a guardian of the ball (career 4.2 helps against 1.8 turnover), but he is not a shooter in any way (42.2 / 30.6 / 72.6 career cut line). It is the opposite of a spacer, burning on all but 24.1 percent of the three launched this season without a defender six feet away.
Defensive versatility and the ability to force turnovers are valuable, probably enough for Chicago to extend its qualifying offer from $ 7.1 million. Unless an external suitor arrives with an inflated offer – unlikely given the lack of space on the hat and its offensive limits – it seems more likely that he will join the Bulls and will play next season on that qualifying offer.
Prediction: Dunn signs the qualifying offer and stays with the bulls for the next season.
Jerami Grant, Denver Nuggets (player option)
The limits of defensive metrics are at the center of the scene in any discussion with Grant.
The eye test sees it as an impact addition for the Nuggets. It made them multiple in defense with the ability to protect extra positions. It apparently justified the non-economic price of last summer’s trade from Oklahoma City which cost Denver the first round of 2020.
“I think the reason we were so excited on the night of that trade while we were in Las Vegas was because of everything Jerami showed us over the season,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone told reporters. “The three-point shoot, the defense, the game, the versatility and I think we saw him play forward.”
From a statistical point of view, however, the numbers are not convinced of Grant’s impact. In fact, he has one of the worst net differentials of any player in the rotation (11.2 worst points per 100 possessions with him than without) and the difference surprisingly resides largely on the defensive end (8.1 worst points per 100 possessions) .
This could lead to some interesting debates in the Denver front office, assuming that Grant is declining its $ 9.3 million option for next season. With Paul Millsap entering a free agency with no restrictions, the Nuggets could be forced to choose between the powers forward. As the Nuggets have already sacrificed a first-round pick to get Grant, the younger and more athletic of the two, it seems like the most likely bet to remain.
Prediction: green refuses the player’s option, signs a three-year agreement with the Nuggets.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
For the second consecutive offseason, Hollis-Jefferson hits the open market as a defender of impacts with an unpredictable offensive profile.
Last summer, he had to settle for a year, a $ 2.5 million deal with the Raptors. Despite playing a non-insignificant role for the defending champions (19.2 minutes per night in 52 contests), he may be forced to look for his next gig outside Toronto. The Raptors have a number of free agents on the roster, including Fred VanVleet, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Chris Boucher (limited), who could squeeze Hollis-Jefferson.
If the decision is up to Boucher or Hollis-Jefferson, the protection of the circle of the former, the spacing of the floor and the type of free agency could make him nod.
“Boucher is probably the most important piece for the Raptors,” wrote Eric Koreen of Athletic. “That he is a limited free agent for whom the Raptors have Early Bird rights, instead of an unrestricted free agent who comes with Hollis-Jefferson’s non-bird rights, could also make it easier for the Raptors to maintain it. “
Hollis-Jefferson will not break the bank by NBA standards and will likely have to settle for another short-term deal, given the limited number of teams that have money to spend.
Prediction: Hollis-Jefferson signs a one year contract with Nuggets.
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