From the outset, the 2018 season for the Green Bay Packers should be determined by new general manager Brian Gutekunst, who seeks a very delicate balance.
On the one hand, you had the old hands looking for a final round of foot-quarterback Aaron Rodgers in his 35-year season, 32-year-old OLB Clay Matthews, and a series of aging agent acquisitions (35-year cornerback). Tramon) Williams, 32-year-old final Jimmy Graham, 29-year-old defender (Muhammad Wilkerson).
The renaming of Rodgers and the introduction of guys for short-term deals gave this season a real profit feeling. With well paid direct receivers (Davante Adams and Randall Cobb) and tackles (David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga) at first glance, it seemed Rodgers had what he needed.
On the other side … there was everything else. The defense had a new coordinator (Mike Pettine) and only five players earned more than $ 2.5 million (Matthews, Williams, Wilkerson, end Mike Daniels and OLB Nick Perry).
The Packers selected cornerbacks for each of their two top picks in the April draft (Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson) and would need at least one to play a starting task immediately. With Cobb's explosive power dwindling in recent years, Rodgers needed a reliable contribution from at least one of the three receivers. In Win-Now mode just a flat conversion was performed. The ceiling was high and the floor was damn low.
It obviously did not work. Head coach Mike McCarthy was fired too low after a defeat. Arizona dropped the pack to 4-7-1.
The team is probably better than his record; They are 13th in the FPI of ESPN (between 6-5-1 Vikings and 6-6 Colts) and 12th in DVOA, a statistical quantity suggesting a playoff team at the border. But a series of close losses-eight at Detroit, two at the Rams, three at Seattle, seven at Minnesota, three at the Cardinals-led to the end of Win-Now mode and McCarthy's 13-year-old Green Bay residence.
The McCarthy autopsies in recent days have been frequent and comprehensive. Green Bay was too patient for too long. McCarthy's offense resisted the inspiration of some of the simple concepts that open NFL recipients to record rates. Shooting the pack now gives the pack a head start on the replacement hunt, etc.
But what happens Next? And what must Gutekunst be based on if it seeks a similar balance with a new trainer in the next few years, which is now suitable for future construction?
In order to get answers, we first take a look at the actual strengths and weaknesses of the year 2018. Then we look at the contract situation.
The dangerous balance of Green Bay has flown on the statistics sheet – the Packers are very good and very bad.
Obviously, although Cobb offers little, there is a solid combination of run efficiency and big play pass.
Former UTEP star Aaron Jones quietly let the ball go for a year. He has an average of 5.7 yards per carry, though that average was only 3.8 per carry in the last three weeks of his play. However, his overhaul of Jamaal Williams on the depth table gave the Packers a boost of added efficiency. He was dominant in the easy win against Dolphins (15 carries for 145 yards) and was also excellent against the Rams (12 for 86).
Theoretically, you combine efficient noise with big-play-passing and you're in business, right? Although Cobb's contributions were minimal (6.6 meters per goal in just six games), Adams scored an average of seven healthy catch per game and three young receivers – the third goal of Geronimo Allison and the rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown – have collected over 60 catches for 950 yards (15.8 per).
There are all sorts of explosives here, combined with the fact that Rodgers never really gets in the way of the ball. He has a single, single interception in 463 passes. But this explosiveness takes a while, and The simple options do not exist,
Watch Packers' last few games, and I keep seeing games like this.
No one is open until Rodgers plays, but many passes have been cut, but RODGERS is to blame! pic.twitter.com/AoRoeeHVX3
– Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) 3 December 2018
The biggest problem with McCarthy's offense in 2018 was that nothing became easy – Rodgers was asked to develop good timing and efficiency with a reception corps he does not really know outside of Adams.
From Bill Barnwell of ESPN:
These issues re-emerged with the 2018 offense, which was still outdated compared to teams like the Chiefs and Rams. The packers just do not do enough to create natural recipes and simple releases for their receivers who need to win one-on-one coverage. Of Rodgers 21 touchdown passes this season, only two used a pick to make room, and both were within two meters of the end zone. Two of the touchdowns included stacked recipients, but one did not create an open recipient. Rodgers had to improvise and create a trajectory for a score.
The packers had no jet sweep in mid-OctoberAnd while they used ghost moves in week 12 to set up an Aaron Jones touchdown run, it felt like the diner that has been in your city for 75 years suddenly put poké on the menu. Bringing Davante Adams into the back room for a quarter-final will not modernize your offense. It's a game.
So what happens if you have a QB that does not throw any eavesdropped passports and has to wait awhile for guys (many of whom are beginners or close to them) to be open? Flash failures turn into catastrophes. Despite an efficient run game, Rodgers has experienced a lot of lightning downs. They were mostly catastrophic.
Despite the existence of one of the best quarterbacks of his generation, Green Bay's offenses fit into the profile of a game manager-type: run the ball and keep things at standard downs, and warm your player as soon as you miss the schedule. Obviously, Rodgers is not a peak Aaron, but if you think he still has a few tricks up his sleeve (and he's certainly got some insights), maybe you'll make him a more modern offense, give him simpler passports, and see what happens.
As Rex Ryan's former right-hand man, Mike Pettine, Ryan's profile fits: Be as aggressive as you can if you have the chance (and sometimes if you do not) and hope the glitches do not outweigh the three points , and -out force you. And despite injuries in front and youth in the back, the packers were able to force many uncomfortable downhill and distance and three-flight trips.
From a marginal standpoint, they have the best pass defense in the league and the second best pass Downs Defense in the league. They force lightning strikes, and they dominate opponents in blitziefs as well as the defense of the opponent packer,
This is a good thing to have in your pocket during the happy 2018 season in your pocket! And Green Bay has compiled these lucky stats, even though three of the five highest paid defenders (Perry, Daniels and Wilkerson) are in injured reserve – they have only collected three tackles against loss this season. Per Spotrac, 14 percent of the upper limit of Green Bay lies between them – and despite the fact that Gutekunst's shadow reconstructions had some in-season moves in the back: Part-time starter Jermaine Whitehead was abandoned on 6 November, just a week after security. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was traded to Washington.
Both rookie corners, Alexander and Johnson, have been asked to do a lot and have claimed (they have defended 16 passes). Williams was fine after he left the corner for safety. Obviously, Williams's age does not mean a long-term answer, but Alexander and Johnson could form one of the league's more dangerous cornerback tandems in the years to come.
You can probably figure out what the problem is. They have an aggressive game caller and an aggressive secondary player trying to play games while fighting against the youth. What happens if they do not play? The opponent does it.
The big games that Green Bay allows are bigger than any of the others. Green Bay is allowed sixth in the completion rate, but only 21 in yards per completion. The packers are excellent at short-pass play, which prevents the average score per finish from increasing, but the glitches were deadly.
They've admitted 22 passes over 30 meters this season, tied to the Chiefs and Rams for most in the league. Only they have no crimes of the Chiefs and Rams, which they can fall back on.
Let's list the young assets of Packers.
- Adams is only 26 years old, and despite the problems of passing (and lack of consistent help), he has already exceeded his career catches and yard highs and is on pace for over 110 catches and almost 1,500 yards. Obviously, he will now be paid like a star receiver – there's no rookie discount here – but he'll be a reliable, exciting piece for a while.
- As the NFL violations continue to flourish, you'll need as many strong men as you can, and 21-year-old Alexander, 22-year-old Jackson and 23-year-old part-time starter Kevin King alongside the recently 26-year-old newcomer and Green Bay's former Washington starter Bashaud Breeland has some potential and affordable holders. The interceptions have not come yet, but should be soon
- Defensive end / duel Kenny Clark is 23. The UCLA product is third in the team in both tackles. He is a guardian. Behind him is center-back Blake Martinez, a robust presence against the run, only 24, leading the team in TFLs.
- Jones is only 24 years old and Jamaal Williams is 23. Green Bay's run game is not the most explosive in the world, but as the run game across the league is losing importance, the packers are likely to be a fixture, especially for running back a while considering Jones's decent passport skills.
- Valdez-Scantling and St. Brown are not yet consistent (53 percent of the catch rate between them), but they were picks in the fifth and sixth round, respectively. Companion J'Mon Moore (a catch) was a fourth rounder. They have been asked to contribute well beyond their design status, and chances are that one of them will be a strong option over Adams.
If good art leaves her, Matthews and Cobb will come out of the books in the coming season. Here are the players who will earn more than $ 10 million next year:
- Rodgers ($ 26,500,000)
Perry ($ 14,700,000)
Bakhtiari ($ 14,200,000)
Graham ($ 12,666,666)
- Daniels ($ 10,900,000)
- Adams ($ 10,600,000)
Obviously, that's a lot for Rodgers when he's out of his fastball, and Perry and Daniels are only worth the money if they're healthy, but that's not an unbelievably annoying list. With another draft class and space for at least a few interesting additional agents, Gutekunst can solve some of the outstanding issues (of which there is not a ton).
As far as reconstruction is concerned, there is much to like here. But Rodgers presence ensures that the situation remains a little more desperate than the average reconstruction. Good art can not make solid moves – he has to Great those who can still use Rodgers. But if he nails the upcoming coaching quest, and if Green Bay can create easier passports for Rodgers who are on the offensive while he just receives healthy In defense, they could have much to offer in 2019.