NBA Analytics: Data vs. Market – Jiebao Score Network

The NBA won a complete victory yesterday, the NBA has won three consecutive games, and the NBA is now very confident. Yesterday, 5 wins and 4 wins, 13 wins in 18 days, a total of +15 wins, and the number of wins + results continues to soar.

Discussion on the rationality of concessions

Starting from this season’s objective data model, there is a fundamental contradiction between the theoretical handicap direction of this game and the current external settings. The Denver Nuggets are currently ranked third in the Western Conference, and their away game ability is particularly good. They have 19 wins and 9 losses in 28 away games, averaging 4.3 points behind their opponents per game. On the other hand, the home team Chicago Bulls are only ranked 11th in the Eastern Conference. Although the home victory rate of 15 wins and 11 losses is acceptable, the average net score per game is -0.9 points, and there are obvious loopholes on the defensive end. Calculated based on the net remaining points performance of both sides at home and away, the theoretical model supports the visiting team Nuggets to make a concession of about 5.2 points. However, the actual initial handicap values are all with the Bulls as the handicap side, ranging from 4.5 to 5.5 points, which is completely contrary to the theoretical direction. This abnormal situation is also in contrast to the recent status of the two teams: the Bulls are experiencing 3 consecutive losses, with 1 win and 5 losses in the past 6 games; although the Nuggets are also experiencing 3 consecutive losses, their overall record and ranking are far better than the Bulls. In the past 10 meetings, the Bulls have 5 wins and 5 losses and are not inferior. However, the Nuggets lost their first meeting at home this season with a 3-point disadvantage. There is a significant deviation between the strength positioning, recent status and the market value direction, and the reasons behind it are fascinating to explore.

Discussion on the rationality of total score value

In the setting of the total score, there are also obvious inconsistencies with the basic data model. The Chicago Bulls averaged 116.1 points per game at home this season and conceded 117.0 points. The pace of the game is not slow. The Denver Nuggets have the league’s super away offensive firepower, averaging 121.3 points per game, ranking among the top. Simply adding up the average points per game of the two teams at home and away, the theoretical total points should be expected to be at least around 237.4 points. However, observing the initial total scores issued by many outsiders, they are generally concentrated at 228.5 points. Although the real-time values fluctuate, they are only between 227.5 and 231 points, which is nearly 10 points lower than the theoretical model. This drastic reduction is not without trace: the Bulls have lost an average of 122.5 points per game in the past 10 games, and their defensive efficiency is worrying; the Nuggets have also lost an average of 116.7 points in the past 10 games, which is not monolithic. But on the other hand, the recent direct dialogue between the two teams has resulted in high scores many times. The total score in the last four meetings has exceeded 240 points. The preset total score value at the current node is significantly lower than the offensive paper strength and recent confrontation trends. Whether it indicates that this game will deviate from the offensive track and shift to another rhythm is worthy of in-depth consideration.

The following unlocked content includes: Comparison explanation between theoretical values and actual values + data point of view.