Hockey / NHL
24/01/2026 – 01:00
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
Vegas Golden Knights
Odds updated on January 23, 2026 at 1:06 p.m.
First NHL prediction for this Friday evening with this Maple Leafs – Golden Knights prediction.
Just eight days after an anthology duel won by Vegas (6-5 in overtime), the two franchises meet in Toronto. The Maple Leafs (24-17-9) are looking to break a series of two consecutive defeats led by Auston Matthews in great form (7 goals in the last 10 games). Opposite, the Golden Knights (24-13-12), leaders of the Pacific division, display impressive momentum with 7 victories in their last 9 outings but are experiencing a decline with two consecutive losses. This match pits two styles: the explosive and creative attack of Toronto against the depth of the squad and the physical power of Vegas.
Pronostic Maple Leafs – Golden Knights
Our Maple Leafs – Golden Knights prediction: Toronto victory (OT included) at 1.94 on Winamax
Although Vegas won the last duel between the two teams in spectacular fashion on January 15, several indicators lean in favor of the Maple Leafs for this new match. First of all, home ice advantage is everything: Toronto has a solid 16-6-6 record at home. Historically, the Leafs respond very well after being beaten in a close game, and the bitterness of the last loss (where they led 5-3 with nine minutes remaining) will serve as a driving force.
Statistically, Toronto’s special teams are superior. With a Powerplay of 23.4%, they have the weapons to punish Vegas, whose shorthanded success rate is stagnating at 80.1%. In addition, goalkeeper Joseph Woll presents reassuring numbers at home with a 2.85 goals against average and an efficiency rate of .911, which is significantly higher than Adin Hill’s statistics for Vegas (GAA of 3.01 and save rate of .896).
Finally, Toronto’s offense is one of the few capable of saturating the Vegas defense. The Leafs average 33.2 shots per game, putting constant pressure on the opposing goaltender. With Matthews and Tavares producing at a steady pace (even during Nylander’s absence), Toronto has the depth necessary to take revenge and stop the late comeback that Vegas loves so much.
Other prediction Maple Leafs – Golden Knights
Auston Matthew scorer at 2.35 on Betclic
Auston Matthews scores two or more goals at 8.75 on Betclic
This is the most credible “big odds” bet for this meeting. Auston Matthews is going through one of his best stretches of the 2025-2026 season. He scored in the last duel against Vegas and accumulates 25 buts in 50 matches. Faced with a Vegas defense which conceded 5 goals in their last direct confrontation, spaces will be present.
Vegas’ tendency to give up a lot of shots (nearly 30 per game) favors an elite shooter like Matthews, who doesn’t hesitate to shoot from any angle. At Scotiabank Arena, Matthews is used to scoring multiple times against top teams. The more “cautious” bettors will be able to fall back on the Matthews scorer bet which already has good odds above 2.30. But for the more daring, the double at 8.75 seems entirely playable.
Maple Leafs – Golden Knights: stats and key figures
| Statistics | Toronto Maple Leafs | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Goals scored / match | 3,3 | 3,3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 3,3 | 3,0 |
| Shots on target / match | 27,2 | 29,1 |
| Shots conceded / match | 31,1 | 29,4 |
| % Powerplay (PP) | 23,4 % | 19,3 % |
| % Penalty Kill (PK) | 78,5 % | 80,1 % |
Odds and probabilities of victory
In this meeting, the Vegas Golden Knights are slightly favored by the bookmakers. Players from Nevada have a 56.8% probability of victory compared to only 52.1% for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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Photo credit: © Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
