The center political "is at the end of its road," according to Serbian political scientist Ivan Vejvoda, who analyzed the erosion of moderate voices in France and across Europe.
The Decline of the European Center
Major centrist and traditional postwar parties have lost their appeal, Vejvoda stated, pointing to the decline of Christian Democrat and even Socialist parties in countries like Italy and France. He attributed this shift to changing citizen demands and the rise of neoliberalism, which he said created a sense of downward mobility and a loss of living standards for many. “Twenty years ago, most believed capitalism could go hand in hand with a form of egalitarianism,” Vejvoda explained, noting that while the wealthy benefited disproportionately, those at the bottom of the social scale did not feel entirely abandoned.
However, Vejvoda did not frame centrist forces as mere victims of these new economic and social conditions.
France as a Symptom of a Global Trend
While France is a particularly striking example of this political shift, Vejvoda emphasized that the underlying demands for dignity and redistribution are part of a global movement. He described the French as the “mother of all revolutions,” known for rising up when they feel oppressed.
Limited Path for a Centrist Comeback
The path for a centrist rebound is difficult, Vejvoda concluded, largely due to current economic constraints. When combined with international pressures, such as the additional costs of aid to Ukraine, the public discontent with the center is likely to worsen unless governments fundamentally redefine their political priorities, he added.
He suggested that a majority of citizens are reasonable and not asking for the impossible. “They demand above all better redistribution and want a tangible feeling that their government truly takes into account their needs and opinions,” Vejvoda stated.
A “Big Tent” Approach to Populism
When asked about Nobel laureate economist Daron Acemoglu’s proposal for a “populism of the big tent,” inclusive and centered on job creation, wage growth, and career prospects for the non-diploma holders, with an use of AI oriented toward shared prosperity, Vejvoda expressed agreement. He believes such an approach could bring together a broad range of discontent against the existing system, allowing for debates on major issues like AI without being bogged down in daily political squabbles.
However, Vejvoda cautioned against simply labeling this populism. He noted that centrist parties already use populist rhetoric on issues like immigration and sovereignty, and the term “populism” itself can be confusing, encompassing diverse movements from Argentina’s Peronism to French Poujadism. He advocated moving beyond labels to focus on what can concretely unite democrats seeking more egalitarian societies.
Le Pen’s Victory Far from Assured
Vejvoda did not join those who predict a certain victory for Marine Le Pen in 2027. He acknowledged the election is far off but noted that political situations change quickly. He had previously placed hope in Edouard Philippe as a potential figure for a republican front, but his polling numbers are now declining. The recent entry of Raphaël Glucksmann into the race adds another variable, Vejvoda observed.
He pointed to recent electoral trends in Europe, such as the setback for populist parties in Serbia, as evidence that outcomes are not predetermined. Upcoming elections in Spain, Poland, and Italy could further illustrate this. “Even if the political and socio-economic situation in France is different from five or ten years ago, I would not be surprised if the ‘republican front’ reappeared in one form or another,” he said.
The “Expiration Date” for Populist Leaders
Vejvoda’s experience in Serbia, particularly the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic, has led him to believe that leaders have a kind of “expiration date.” He emphasized citizen resilience, noting that people recognize corruption, nepotism, and privileges. “The breaking point generally comes when their standard of living declines,” he explained, citing a threshold beyond which public patience cracks. Milosevic held power for 12 years in Serbia, Viktor Orban for 16 in Hungary, and Aleksandar Vucic, the outgoing Serbian president, was recently defeated by the Student List after 14 years in power.
While he warned against applying a single model to different countries, Vejvoda noted that a Le Pen presidency would face unavoidable budgetary and fiscal challenges. The anti-system posture of her party would no longer be sufficient, and depending on their approach, France could experience a scenario similar to the one that led to Milosevic’s downfall. “We can, however, hope that the recent victory in Serbia illuminates the path in Europe,” he concluded.
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