Futuro Nazionale, founded by parliamentary dissidents from Matteo Salvini’s governing League party, initially capitalized on voter discontent by challenging Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s conservative bloc ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The Slide in National Polls
After peaking near 9% during the summer months, Futuro Nazionale has fallen back in the surveys. Polling firms SWG and Ipsos now place the party between 5.8% and 7.9%, a downward trajectory confirmed by recent public surveys. Analysts point to the party’s narrow focus on security and cultural disputes as a primary hurdle for long-term growth.
“Vannacci speaks of security and immigration, but he needs a broader political program to consolidate his electorate,” Antonio Noto, a pollster for state broadcaster RAI, told Reuters.
Splintering Grassroots Support
The local committees established across Italy to organize Vannacci’s loyalists have become flashpoints for organizational friction. Several active members have resigned, accusing leadership of alienating the foundational base that built the movement.
“The drop in the polls is explained by the departure of those who took badly the way they were treated,” said Thomas Orsetti, a former activist from the northern Veneto region.
Other defectors note that they initially joined the party expecting pragmatic solutions to local civic challenges, such as regional healthcare and public schooling, only to find their priorities sidelined. Massimo Perrone, a resident of Latina near Rome who left the party in September, criticized Vannacci’s flagship proposal to deport foreign nationals as unfeasible compared to immediate local needs like hospitals and social housing.
Vannacci Faces Criticism over Controversial Remarks
The party has also faced criticism over contentious remarks from Vannacci himself. The general drew condemnation from within his own political sphere after criticizing a 2025 statute classifying femicide as a specific criminal offense and suggesting that disabled students should be placed in separate classrooms.
“I didn’t think he would go that far, with his repeated attacks against homosexuals and his proposal to separate disabled students. That’s what pushed me to look elsewhere,” said Marcello Orru, a former party member from Sassari, Sardinia.
Despite these departures, Futuro Nazionale lawmaker Rossano Sasso rejected claims of internal turmoil, maintaining that party membership numbers continue to climb and that negative polling data is part of a coordinated effort to destabilize the organization.
Implications for the Governing Coalition
Vannacci has stated his willingness to negotiate an agreement with Prime Minister Meloni’s governing bloc—which has recently tightened its margin against the center-left opposition—provided the coalition adopts his policy platform. However, the general’s foreign policy stances, including calls to restore gas pipelines with Russia and halt military aid to Ukraine stemming from his time as a military attaché in Moscow, remain at odds with Meloni’s firm alignment with European Union support for Kyiv.
Fabrizio Masia, director of the EMG polling institute, noted that while Vannacci could regain support by broadening his public discourse, achieving a breakthrough remains difficult in an electoral environment dominated by two major opposing alliances. “We are inevitably heading toward a clash between two alliances,” Masia said. “The message addressed to voters will increasingly be: choose your camp.”
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