Jet fuel shortages from decarbonization policies and declining refinery capacity across Europe threaten military readiness.
According to a report published in September by the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence (NATO ENSEC COE) and reported by Politico, financial mechanisms designed to encourage renewable energy investments have driven the closure of oil refineries and reduced fuel storage.
“From a military readiness perspective, access to fuel… is very important,” a senior NATO military official said, according to Politico. “NATO needs reliable energy supplies to deter and defend, and sometimes these collective defense needs mean that the military must have priority.”
Europe faces a structural deficit in aviation fuel production capacity following years of industrial contraction.
Data from the European Commission and FuelsEurope show that approximately a quarter of the continent’s oil refineries have closed since 2009, removing millions of barrels from regional production capacity.
Only about 70 operational plants now supply aviation fuel across Europe, while existing European stockpiles cover just 49 days of jet fuel consumption.
That reserve duration shrinks during active conflict as military demands surge, with aviation fuel accounting for 60 to 72 percent of peacetime military fuel consumption and 75 to 80 percent during wartime.
The NATO ENSEC COE study, titled “Fuelling the Forces to 2050,” follows a May report from the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) named “No Fuel, No Fight: The Dutch Fuel Industry and European Military Readiness.”
That research warned that wartime fuel shortages could force states to arbitrate between civilian and military needs, thereby increasing the operational dependence of armed forces.
“The urgency of this report and the modeling contained within it… is undoubtedly driven by the current geopolitical landscape,” a NATO research center spokesperson told Politico.
Those concerns intensified following recent hybrid warfare tactics and sabotage campaigns across the European continent, which heightened fears of a direct confrontation with Moscow.
European Union authorities have launched high-level discussions with industrial stakeholders to address the refining shortfall.
The European Commission has engaged in a cycle of talks with the European refining sector to evaluate production capacities.
Researchers suggest the crisis remains avoidable if allied governments preserve existing refining capacity, expand strategic fuel reserves, accelerate alternative aviation fuel production, and diversify import routes.
On September 24, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged the alliance’s concerns regarding the shortage of operational refineries in the event of a war with Russia.
