Marine Le Pen holds a commanding lead in voter intentions for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to polling data released by Elabe.
First-Round Voting Intentions
The Rassemblement National candidate captures between 31% and 33% of registered voters who intend to cast a ballot. Her support remains stable compared to the previous month. Among those who intend to vote, she would secure nearly all of her voters from the 2024 legislative elections, scoring between 75% and 78%, while also attracting between 20% and 24% of LR voters and between 7% and 11% of Ensemble voters.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon ranks second in the polling figures, reaching between 17% and 17.5% of voting intentions, having gained 1.5 to 2 percentage points. Without Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin in the field, his figures climb to 18.5%. He benefits from higher mobilization among left-wing voters and has secured certain support from Glucksmann among independent voters, rising to between 49% and 53% for a gain of 2 to 4 points in a month.
Édouard Philippe registers between 9.5% and 15%, depending on the specific candidate scenario tested. The former prime minister drops 1.5 points amid a slight demobilization among right-leaning voters and a slight drop of 3 points among those same voters.
Elabe explains: “The mayor of Le Havre would benefit from the support of 42-49% of Ensemble voters and would obtain 20% to 28% of LR voters. His decline is explained by a slight demobilization of the right-wing electorate ahead of the presidential election and by a slight decline among these same voters (-3 points). In the scenario with the largest number of candidates, he would obtain only 33% of the votes of Ensemble voters and 17% of LR voters. It should be noted that he also loses eight points among voters without party affiliation.”
Judo star Teddy Riner reaches 4.5% in the polls four days after announcing his candidacy.
Second-Round Runoff Scenarios
In potential second-round matchups, Le Pen leads across all tested scenarios against her main rivals. Elabe reports she polls at 55% against both Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann, with her opponents taking 45%. In a runoff between Éric Philippe and Marine Le Pen, Glucksmann's voters would likely shift to the presidential candidate at 6 out of 10, while only a third of Mélenchon's voters would do so; meanwhile, Bernard Retailleau's voters would divide between the two candidates and Le Pen would obtain nearly all of Éric Zemmour's voters.
In a runoff between Glucksmann and Le Pen, the socialist candidate would obtain a partial transfer of votes from Mélenchon’s supporters at 1 out of 2 with the rest abstaining, while capturing 5 out of 10 centrist voters, and Le Pen would win more than half of Retailleau’s supporters.
Against Mélenchon, Le Pen reaches 68.5% to his 31.5% in a head-to-head runoff. Elabe data shows that in a Mélenchon-Le Pen matchup, 60% of first-round Glucksmann and center voters would abstain en masse, Mélenchon would obtain only 2 out of 10 of Glucksmann’s voters and 1 out of 10 from the center, and Le Pen would capture 1 out of 10 of Glucksmann’s voters, 3 out of 10 from the center, and 7 out of 10 from Retailleau.
Uncertainty Grows as 16 Million Voters Remain Undecided
Elabe identifies uncertainty among the electorate, with 45% of respondents stating they might change their minds before election day. Based on 2022 turnout levels, this represents approximately 16 million undecided voters, up four percentage points from 41% during the same period ahead of the previous election.
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