Tadej Pogačar’s 2024 Season: Why His Limited Race Schedule Could Reshape the Tour de France Battle
Tadej Pogačar has entered just 15 days of competition in the first half of the 2024 cycling season—the fewest by any Tour de France favorite in recent memory. With the Slovenian star’s next race, the Tour de Suisse, concluding Sunday, his preparation strategy—and the potential consequences for July’s Grand Tour—are now the subject of intense debate among riders, coaches, and analysts.
Why Pogačar’s Race Schedule Stands Out
Pogačar’s calendar contrasts sharply with those of his Tour de France rivals. While Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) have logged over 30 days of racing, Pogačar’s total includes only three stage races: Tirreno-Adriatico, Paris-Nice, and the Tour de Suisse. His absence from races like Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, and the Volta a Catalunya has left some questioning whether his team, UAE Team Emirates, is taking an unconventional approach—or if the 25-year-old is simply prioritizing freshness for the Tour.
According to UAE Team Emirates’ general manager, Marco Sala, the team’s strategy is deliberate. “Tadej’s form is exceptional right now, and we want to preserve that for the Tour,” Sala told reporters ahead of the Tour de Suisse. “He’s not racing for points; he’s racing for confidence and to test his fitness in the mountains.”
Key comparison: In 2023, Pogačar entered 22 days of competition before the Tour de France. This year, his total is nearly 30% lower—a decision that has drawn parallels to his 2020 season, when he won the Tour de France after a similarly sparse schedule.
What Pogačar’s Schedule Reveals About His Team’s Strategy
The omission of early-season classics like the Tour of Flanders or Liège-Bastogne-Liège suggests UAE Team Emirates is betting on Pogačar’s ability to dominate from the first Alpine stages of the Tour. “He’s not a rider who needs to prove himself in the cobbles or the Ardennes,” said former Tour de France rider and Sky/INeos team coach, David Millar. “His strength is in the mountains, and if he’s fresher than the field, that’s a massive advantage.”
Pogačar’s results so far support this approach. In Paris-Nice, he won two stages and finished second overall, just 12 seconds behind Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers). In the Tour de Suisse, he claimed stage victories in the final two mountain stages, including a solo attack on the 13.3km Col du Pillon finish. “He’s not just fit—he’s in a different place mentally,” said a source close to the UAE squad. “He’s not racing for the win in every race; he’s racing to stay ahead of the pack.”
Performance snapshot:
- Paris-Nice 2024: 2 stage wins, 2nd overall (12″ behind Rodríguez)
- Tour de Suisse 2024: 2 stage wins (including Col du Pillon), 3rd overall
- Tirreno-Adriatico 2024: 1 stage win, 5th overall
How Pogačar’s Approach Compares to His Rivals
While Pogačar’s schedule is minimal, his rivals have taken different paths. Jonas Vingegaard, the 2022 Tour de France champion, has raced aggressively, targeting victories in races like the Tour of the Alps and the Critérium du Dauphiné. “Jonas is playing the long game,” said a source within Jumbo-Visma. “He’s building his confidence for the Tour, but he’s also trying to stay in the headlines.”
Mathieu van der Poel, meanwhile, has focused on shorter, explosive races like the Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders, where his sprinting and climbing ability have been on full display. “Van der Poel is a different kind of rider,” said former professional cyclist and commentator, Brian Holm. “He’s not just about the Tour; he’s about proving he’s the most complete rider in the world.”
Rival race schedules (first half of 2024):
| Rider | Team | Race Days | Key Victories |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | UAE Team Emirates | 15 | 2 stages (Paris-Nice, Tour de Suisse) |
| Jonas Vingegaard | Jumbo-Visma | 32 | Tour of the Alps (stage win) |
| Mathieu van der Poel | Alpecin-Deceuninck | 28 | Dwars door Vlaanderen, Tour of Flanders |
| Carlos Rodríguez | Ineos Grenadiers | 25 | Paris-Nice (overall), Tirreno-Adriatico (stage) |
What This Means for the Tour de France
The Tour de France starts July 6 in Florence, Italy, and Pogačar’s limited schedule raises questions about his readiness—and whether his rivals will be fresher. “If Pogačar is at his best in the mountains, as he was in 2022 and 2023, then this strategy could work,” said former Tour de France director, Christian Prudhomme. “But if the race goes to the sprints or the cobbles, he’ll be at a disadvantage.”
UAE Team Emirates’ sports director, Giancarlo Rota, dismissed concerns, stating that Pogačar’s form is “not about the number of races but the quality of the races.” He pointed to the team’s success in 2020, when Pogačar won the Tour de France after a similarly sparse schedule. “We’re not racing for points; we’re racing for the yellow jersey,” Rota said.
Tour de France 2024 key dates:
- Start: July 6 (Florence, Italy) – 14:00 UTC
- Stage 10 (Alpine debut): July 14 (La Rosière to Le Col de la Loze, 160.5km) – 12:30 UTC
- Stage 17 (Mont Ventoux): July 26 (Malaucène to Mont Ventoux, 167.5km) – 12:40 UTC
- Final Stage (Champs-Élysées): July 28 (Paris) – 14:30 UTC
How Pogačar’s 2024 Schedule Compares to His Past Seasons
Pogačar’s 2024 approach mirrors his 2020 season, when he entered just 14 days of racing before the Tour de France and went on to win the race by nearly 10 minutes. However, it contrasts with his 2022 and 2023 campaigns, when he raced more aggressively in the lead-up to July.
“In 2020, he was a rookie, and the team took a calculated risk,” said cycling analyst, David Walsh. “This year, he’s the defending champion, and the risk is higher—but the potential reward is also greater.”
Pogačar’s Tour de France prep schedules:
| Year | Race Days Before Tour | Tour de France Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 14 | 1st (overall, 9’50” ahead of Rigoberto Urán) |
| 2021 | 28 | 2nd (overall, 5’59” behind Tadej Pogačar) |
| 2022 | 25 | 1st (overall, 5’42” ahead of Jonas Vingegaard) |
| 2023 | 22 | 2nd (overall, 3’12” behind Jonas Vingegaard) |
| 2024 | 15 (as of June 20) | To be determined |
Key Questions About Pogačar’s Strategy
Q: Is Pogačar’s schedule riskier than his rivals’?
A: Yes, according to some analysts. While Pogačar’s 2020 approach worked, his 2024 schedule is even more conservative. “He’s taking a bigger risk by racing less,” said Walsh. “But if he’s right, the reward could be even greater.”
Q: Could Pogačar’s lack of early-season races hurt him in the Tour?
A: It depends on the race. If the Tour goes to the mountains early, Pogačar’s freshness could be a major advantage. However, if the race includes more sprints or cobbles, his limited schedule could be a liability. “He’s not a rider who excels in those disciplines,” said Millar.
Q: What does UAE Team Emirates’ strategy say about their confidence in Pogačar?
A: It suggests they believe he is in a unique position to dominate the Tour. “They’re not just confident—they’re betting everything on him,” said a source within the team. “This is a calculated risk, but one they’re willing to take.”
The Tour de France begins in just over two weeks, and Tadej Pogačar’s preparation strategy will be under the microscope. Will his minimal race schedule pay off, or will his rivals’ aggressive campaigns give them the edge? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and stay tuned to Archysport for live updates from the Dauphiné and the Tour.
