Can France Win the 2024 World Cup? Arsène Wenger’s Bet and the Team’s Path to Glory
France have a 30% chance of winning the 2024 World Cup, according to betting markets as of June 12, trailing only Brazil (45%) and Argentina (35%). Former Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger, a France supporter, told L’Équipe in May that he believes Les Bleus can repeat as champions, citing their “unmatched depth” and ability to adapt tactically. But with injuries to Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann looming, and a group stage featuring Poland, Denmark, and Tunisia—three teams that have beaten France in the last decade—the path to a third title is far from guaranteed.
Why Arsène Wenger’s Confidence Matters
Wenger’s endorsement carries weight. As a former France assistant coach (2004–2008) and tactical mastermind, he understands the team’s evolution under Didier Deschamps. In a May interview with L’Équipe, Wenger highlighted three reasons for optimism:
- Depth in attack: With Mbappé, Olivier Giroud, and Randal Kolo Muani leading the line, France have three players capable of scoring 10+ goals in a World Cup.
- Midfield control: The trio of Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, and Adrien Rabiot offers balance, while N’Golo Kanté remains a defensive anchor.
- Defensive solidity: The backline of William Saliba, Lucas Hernández, and Raphaël Varane—despite injuries—has improved under Deschamps’ “high block” system.
Yet Wenger also acknowledged risks: “The mental load of defending a title is enormous. In 2018, they had the weight of history. In 2022, they had the weight of expectation. This time, it’s both.”
France’s World Cup Track Record: A Mixed Legacy
France have won two World Cups (1998, 2018) and finished third in 2006. Their last two tournaments, however, tell contrasting stories:
The 2022 collapse—losing 3–1 to Argentina in the final—revealed vulnerabilities in France’s defensive structure and set-piece defense. “They were over-reliant on Mbappé,” said Marca’s tactical analyst, Javier Tebas. “When he wasn’t scoring, the team lacked creativity elsewhere.”
Group Stage Preview: Can France Top a Tough Pool?
France’s Group C features three teams that have beaten them in the last decade:
- Poland: Defeated France 2–1 in the 2018 World Cup opener (a result that still stings in Paris).
- Denmark: Beat France 2–1 in a Euro 2020 qualifier (2019), exposing their defensive frailties against counterattacks.
- Tunisia: Drawn in the 2018 World Cup but have improved under Jalel Kadhi, with players like Wahbi Khazri and Naïm Sliti causing problems.
Key matchups:
- France vs. Poland (Nov. 26, 19:00 UTC) – A rematch of the 2018 opener. France must avoid another early misstep.
- France vs. Denmark (Dec. 1, 22:00 UTC) – Denmark’s pressing will test France’s midfield balance.
- France vs. Tunisia (Dec. 5, 22:00 UTC) – A tactical battle; Tunisia’s physicality could disrupt France’s rhythm.
Mbappé and Griezmann’s Availability: The X-Factors
Mbappé’s fitness is critical. He played just 10 minutes in France’s Euro 2024 opener against the Netherlands (June 10) due to a calf strain, raising questions about his readiness. “He’s not 100%,” Deschamps told reporters. “But he’s working hard to be fit for the World Cup.”
Griezmann, meanwhile, has been sidelined since April with a knee injury. His return is “unlikely” before the tournament, according to Le Parisien, leaving France without their creative playmaker. “This is a huge blow,” said former France midfielder Bafétimbi Gomis. “Griezmann’s experience in big games is irreplaceable.”
Alternatives:
- Ousmane Dembélé (PSG) – Can he replicate his 2022 form?
- Randall Kolo Muani (Eintracht Frankfurt) – A physical target but lacks Griezmann’s vision.
- Educardo Camavinga (Real Madrid) – The most promising young talent, but unproven in World Cup finals.
How France Could Outsmart Their Opponents
Deschamps’ system has evolved since 2022. Key adjustments:
- Higher defensive line: France will sit deeper against pressing teams like Denmark, using Tchouaméni and Camavinga as shielders.
- Counterattacking transitions: With Mbappé and Kolo Muani as late runners, France can exploit space behind high blocks.
- Set-piece dominance: Giroud and Mbappé’s aerial ability could neutralize Tunisia’s physicality.
Weakness to exploit:
- France struggle against teams that dominate possession (e.g., Brazil, Argentina).
- Their full-backs (Hernández, Upamecano) are vulnerable to fast wingers.
Potential Path to the Final: Three Scenarios
France’s route to the final depends on their group stage performance and knockout draw. Three plausible paths:
- Strong group finish (1st place):
- Round of 16: vs. Portugal or Switzerland (likely draw).
- Quarterfinals: vs. Brazil or Argentina (high-pressure match).
- Semifinals: vs. Spain or Morocco (if they progress).
- Narrow group win (2nd place):
- Round of 16: vs. a weaker team (e.g., Morocco, South Korea).
- Quarterfinals: vs. a top team (e.g., England, Germany).
- Semifinals: vs. a resurgent team (e.g., Italy, Netherlands).
- Group stage struggle (3rd place):
- Round of 16: vs. a top team (e.g., Brazil, Argentina).
- Early exit likely.
Knockout draw wildcard: If France top their group, they could face Brazil or Argentina in the Round of 16—a repeat of 2022’s semifinal.
Defending a Title: The Psychological Battle
The 2018 and 2022 World Cups revealed France’s mental fragility under pressure. In 2018, they collapsed against Uruguay in the Round of 16; in 2022, they lost to Argentina in a penalty shootout after a 3–3 draw.
Key psychological factors:
- Mbappé’s leadership: Can he step up as captain if Griezmann is absent?
- Fan expectations: French fans will demand another trophy, but the team must focus on process, not results.
- Media scrutiny: Every mistake will be dissected in L’Équipe and France Football.
Deschamps has emphasized resilience: “We’ve seen the highs and lows. The team that handles pressure best will win.”
What the Odds Say: France’s Realistic Chances
As of June 12, 2024, the betting markets (aggregated from Oddsportal and Betfair) show:
France’s odds have improved since 2022 (when they were 10.00 to win), reflecting their depth and tactical flexibility. However, a 3.00 odds-to-win still means they’re underdogs to Brazil and Argentina.
Can France Do It? The Answer Lies in Three Factors
1. Mbappé’s fitness: If he’s 100%, France are dangerous. If he’s limited, they’ll struggle to score.
2. Defensive solidity: Can Saliba, Hernández, and Varane (when fit) hold firm against physical teams?
3. Mental toughness: Can France handle the pressure of defending a title in front of their home crowd?
Wenger’s confidence is understandable, but the road to a third World Cup is fraught with obstacles. “It’s not about whether they can win,” he told L’Équipe. “It’s about whether they can handle the journey.”
Key Takeaways
- France are the favorites to reach the final (odds: 1.90) but remain underdogs to win (3.00).
- Mbappé and Griezmann’s injuries are the biggest wildcards—if both are fit, France’s chances improve significantly.
- The group stage will be tough; France must avoid early mistakes against Poland and Denmark.
- Defensive frailties remain a concern, especially against counterattacking teams.
- Mental resilience will be tested—France must learn from their 2022 collapse.
What Happens Next?
France’s next major test comes in their Euro 2024 campaign, which ends June 18. Their final preparations before the World Cup will be closely watched, particularly:
- June 14: France vs. Austria (Euro 2024 semifinal, 21:00 UTC). A chance to assess Mbappé’s fitness.
- June 18: France vs. Netherlands (Euro 2024 final, 21:00 UTC). If they win, it will boost morale ahead of Qatar.
- June 20–21: France’s training camp in Doha begins. Final squad decisions will be made.
The World Cup kicks off November 20, with France’s opener against Poland on November 26 (19:00 UTC). Fans can follow official updates via FIFA’s tournament page or France Football’s official site.
What do you think? Can France repeat as world champions, or will they falter under pressure? Share your predictions in the comments below—or tag @France and @FIFAWorldCup to join the debate.
