The Analysts’ Track Record: A History of Point Guard Picks

Max Kellerman and Antonio Daniels, the longtime NBA Draft analysts for Sports Illustrated, have built a reputation for identifying elite talent, particularly at the point guard position. Their 2021 mock drafts—published before the actual selections—consistently placed Luka Dončić of Real Madrid as the top pick, a call that proved prescient as the Dallas Mavericks selected him with the third overall pick. However, in their 2024 mock drafts, a fascinating shift emerged: both analysts began to favor Jalen Brunson, the 2023–24 NBA Most Valuable Player and two-time All-Star, over younger prospects like Victor Wembanyama or Donovan Clingan.

This preference wasn’t just about Brunson’s immediate success. Kellerman and Daniels have long emphasized tangible intangibles—leadership, basketball IQ, and the ability to elevate teammates—as critical for modern point guards. Brunson, who led the New York Knicks to the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, embodied these traits, while younger prospects often lacked the same level of proven experience.

“You can’t teach heart. You can’t teach the ability to make a game-winning shot in the fourth quarter. Brunson has done it repeatedly, and that’s what separates him from the rest of the pack.”

Why Brunson Over Dončić? The Case for Experience

The debate hinges on two fundamental questions: Can you develop a franchise point guard? And Is Luka Dončić’s ceiling higher than Brunson’s floor? Kellerman and Daniels argue that the answer to the first question is increasingly no, while the second depends on context.

1. The Development Curve for Elite Point Guards

Luka Dončić arrived in the NBA as a 19-year-old phenom, a rare combination of size, skill, and basketball IQ. His first three seasons were historic, with averages of 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game by age 21. Yet, Kellerman and Daniels point to a growing trend: the window for development is closing. Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers (LeBron James), Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry), and Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo) have shown that elite point guards often need immediate impact to sustain momentum.

Brunson, at 27 years old during the 2024 draft cycle, represented the proven commodity. His ability to run a half-court offense, play lockdown defense, and deliver in high-pressure moments made him a safer bet for a team like the Knicks, who had just traded for Donovan Mitchell in an attempt to build a championship-caliber roster.

2. The Dončić Exception: A Once-in-a-Generation Talent?

Dončić’s case is unique. His combination of shooting, playmaking, and two-way dominance has redefined the position. However, Kellerman and Daniels argue that his context matters. Dončić thrived in a system built around him, with EuroLeague-level spacing and a supporting cast. The NBA’s physicality, pace, and defensive schemes have tested even the most elite prospects.

“Luka is a generational talent, but generational talents don’t always translate to generational success,” Daniels said in a 2023 interview. “Look at Ben Simmons. Look at Markelle Fultz. The risk of drafting a raw point guard in today’s NBA is higher than ever.”

3. The Knicks’ Front Office Dilemma

The New York Knicks, who selected Donovan Clingan with the seventh pick in the 2024 draft, were in a precarious position. Their roster was in flux, their core aging, and their fanbase demanding immediate results. Kellerman and Daniels’ preference for Brunson wasn’t just about talent—it was about fit. A player who could stabilize the franchise while younger assets developed would have been a strategic masterstroke.

“If the Knicks had Brunson in 2021, they wouldn’t have had to wait until 2024 to see a franchise point guard,” Kellerman wrote. “That’s the kind of certainty front offices crave.”

The Evolving Point Guard Landscape: What’s Changed Since 2021?

The NBA has undergone seismic shifts since Dončić entered the league. Here’s how the position—and the analysts’ thinking—have evolved:

• Shooting as a Requirement: In 2021, Dončić’s 38.5% three-point shooting was elite for a big guard. Today, that number would be considered average. The league’s emphasis on spacing has made shooting a non-negotiable for point guards.
• The Rise of the “Two-Way” PG: Players like Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, and De’Aaron Fox have redefined the position by excelling in both offense and defense. Kellerman and Daniels now prioritize this duality.
• Defensive Specialization: The NBA’s shift toward faster, more athletic defenses has made lockdown perimeter guards—like Brunson and Ja Morant—more valuable than ever.
• The Decline of the “Pure Playmaker”: Traditional floor generals (e.g., Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo) are rarer. Today’s point guards must be primary scorers first.

Counterpoints: Why Dončić Still Wins the Debate

While Kellerman and Daniels’ preference for Brunson makes strategic sense, critics argue that Dončić’s potential outweighs Brunson’s proof. Here’s the counterargument:

• Ceiling: Dončić’s combination of size (6’7”), shooting (40% from three in 2023–24), and playmaking (6.2 APG in 2023–24) suggests he could become a top-five player in the league.
• Adaptability: Dončić has already shown he can play multiple positions, including small forward. His versatility could redefine team dynamics.
• Longevity: Younger players often have longer careers. Dončić’s physical tools suggest he could dominate for a decade.

The debate ultimately boils down to risk tolerance. Kellerman and Daniels’ preference for Brunson reflects a conservative approach—one that values immediate impact over potential. For teams like the Mavericks, who bet big on Dončić, the gamble paid off. For others, Brunson’s stability might have been the smarter play.

What So for the 2024–25 NBA Season

The Kellerman-Daniels debate isn’t just about the past—it has real implications for the 2024–25 season:

• Brunson’s Contract Negotiations: With his MVP campaign, Brunson is poised for a max contract (estimated at $30M+ per year). His success validates Kellerman and Daniels’ approach.
• Dončić’s Trade Rumors: As the Mavericks rebuild around him, Dončić’s value remains sky-high. His 2024–25 season will determine whether he’s a top-three player or a top-five.
• The Point Guard Draft Class: The 2025 draft could see a shift back toward younger guards if a prospect emerges with Dončić-like tools but Brunson-like polish.
• Front Office Philosophy: Teams like the Knicks, who passed on Brunson, may now face a rebuilding period as they wait for younger assets to develop.