The 2026 NFL Draft Running Back Landscape: Jeremiyah Love Stands Alone in a Thin Class

As the NFL calendar turns toward the highly anticipated draft in Pittsburgh, the scouting reports for the 2026 running back class are painting a stark picture. Whereas the league always seeks explosive playmakers, the current crop of collegiate backs is viewed by analysts as underwhelming, with one glaring exception: Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love.

For teams preparing their boards for the event starting April 23, the lack of depth at the position creates a high-stakes environment for those craving a bell-cow back. According to recent projections, the gap between the top-rated prospect and the rest of the field is wider than typical for a draft class, leaving many front offices to wonder if the value is truly there beyond the first name on the list.

Jeremiyah Love: The Clear Outlier

The consensus among analysts is that Jeremiyah Love is positioned significantly ahead of his peers. In a class that has been described as disappointing, Love represents the only elite projection at the position. This isn’t just a matter of opinion; it is backed by the BackCAST projection system, which analyzes collegiate data to predict professional success.

The BackCAST system, developed by NFL analyst Aaron Schatz—the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metrics—uses historical correlations to determine how a college runner will perform in the NFL. To put Love’s dominance in perspective, last year saw nine running backs achieve a BackCAST score above 40%. This year, Love is the only runner to clear that threshold.

For the uninitiated, the BackCAST score measures how much a player is projected to exceed the production of an “average” drafted running back over their first five professional seasons. A score above 50%, for example, suggests the player will produce 50% more yards than that average baseline.

The Science of the BackCAST Projection

Understanding why Love stands alone requires a look at the metrics that actually correlate with NFL success. The BackCAST system doesn’t rely on “gut feelings” but on a specific combination of tangible factors:

• Physical Profile: A strong combination of size and speed.
• Efficiency: A high average of yards per carry.
• Workload: Representing a significant percentage of their college team’s total rushing game.

While there are several other running backs with positive projections who are expected to become useful NFL contributors, none possess the combined statistical profile to challenge Love for the top spot in the 2026 rankings.

The Road to Pittsburgh: Draft Logistics

The 2026 NFL Draft will be hosted in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, spanning three days of selections. The league has finalized a board consisting of 257 total selections across seven rounds, a number that includes 33 compensatory picks distributed earlier this season.

Fans and teams can follow the action via ESPN, ABC, and the ESPN App. The schedule is set as follows:

• Round 1: April 23
• Rounds 2-3: April 24
• Rounds 4-7: April 25

While the running back class may be thin, the overall draft is expected to be high-profile, particularly at the quarterback position. Early analysis suggests that Fernando Mendoza could be the first overall selection, with scouts highlighting the virtues that make him a prime candidate for the #1 spot.

2026 NFL Draft: Round 1 Order

With the compensatory picks now settled, the order for the first round is locked. The Las Vegas Raiders hold the first overall pick, followed by the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.

Note: The full first round continues through to Seattle at pick 32, with several picks having been traded, such as the L.A. Rams holding Atlanta’s 13th pick and the New York Jets holding Indianapolis’ 16th pick.

Strategic Implications for NFL Front Offices

The disparity in the running back class forces a tactical decision for NFL general managers. When a position is “top-heavy” like this, teams often face a dilemma: do they reach for the one elite talent (Love) early in the first round, or do they ignore the position entirely until the middle rounds, hoping to uncover one of the “useful” contributors identified by the BackCAST system?

This trend mirrors a wider shift in NFL roster building, where the value of the running back position has fluctuated. However, a player who significantly exceeds the “average” production threshold—as Love is projected to do—still represents a massive competitive advantage.

As we approach April 23, the focus will remain on whether the Raiders or Jets look toward the quarterback room for Fernando Mendoza or if the allure of a dominant, statistically backed runner like Love disrupts the expected order.

The next major checkpoint for the 2026 Draft will be the final prospect grades and combine results leading up to the opening night in Pittsburgh. Stay tuned to Archysport for continued coverage and updated rankings.

Who do you believe should go #1 in Pittsburgh? Let us know in the comments below.