The last day of the league phase of the Champions It is, surely, the most exciting thing about the new format before the crossovers. Eighteen matches at the same time in which the majority has a lot at stake in the classification, whether it is entering the “top 8” or the play-offs. The options are multiple and the probabilistic science He says that the four Spanish teams (Villarreal is eliminated) can achieve their goals.
Madrid, inside even losing
Betfair has simulated 100,000 possible scenarios to calculate the options of each one and the Real Madrid is the one closest to finishing in the top eight, with a 95.7% chance. Even in the worst scenario, with a defeat against Mourinho’s Benfica, the whites would add 15 points and have an 87.6% probability of entering the top eight. In that case, Madrid would be at risk only if, simultaneously, that defeat was huge And, on top of that, other teams in its direct competition will also win by large and historic results. Something (almost) impossible.
Barça and the “top8”
Barça, according to this simulation, has a high probability of being in the “top 8.” And 75.6% adding all possible scenarios. What happens is that in that leading group, with eight teams tied on 13 points, there are others that –mathematically– have some more options, which puts the Blaugrana in the lead. That is why Barça must win against Copenhagen at home to, with three points, consolidate this high percentage. The tie, according to mathematics, increases their chances of staying out of the top eight due to the high chances of other direct rivals adding more points. The same thing happens with defeat, which I would leave Flick’s team in the play-offs.
Atlético, to score and wait
Atlético has a situation a little worse than Barça. The victory against Will Glimt It gives him a 74.2% chance of qualifying, although with nuances. The rojiblancos may not even be worth the victory due to the high probability of their rivals winning, which paints a scenario of high uncertainty for Simeone’s team. A draw would place them in the middle of the table, as would a defeat.
El Athletic, al 49%
The “lions” regained hope after their comeback against Atalanta. In any case, it is not easy for them to enter the top 24, since they only have a 48.7% chance of staying alive. They are not favorites for their duel against Sporting, with a 28.57% probability of winning. Normal (42.86%) is that they lose and stay out. But if they win, the options skyrocket. Even a draw could be worth it, although it would depend on other results.
